IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2000 draft class287 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NYIRick DiPietroG3183.15.6-0.26poor value
2ATLDany HeatleyF86979110.59.9+0.03fair
3MINMarian GaborikF10358159.58.5+0.05fair
4CBJRostislav KleslaD6591595.16.3-0.09fair
5NYIRaffi TorresF6352605.17.1-0.15fair
6NSHScott HartnellF12497078.56.1+0.15fair
7BOSLars JonssonD820.15.1-0.82BUST
8TBLNikita AlexeevF159371.14.1-0.48poor value
9CGYBrent KrahnG10.01.0-0.50poor value
10CHIMikhail YakubovF53120.44.0-0.67BUST
11CHIPavel VorobievF57250.54.0-0.64BUST
12ANAAlexei SmirnovF5260.34.0-0.70BUST
13MTLRon HainseyD11323115.31.9+0.41great value
14COLVaclav NedorostF99200.74.0-0.59BUST
15BUFArtem KriukovF000.04.0-0.80BUST
16MTLMarcel HossaF237611.74.0-0.35poor value
17EDMAlexei MikhnovF200.03.9-0.79BUST
18PITBrooks OrpikD10351944.51.9+0.35great value
19PHXKrys KolanosF149421.13.8-0.45poor value
20LAKAlex FrolovF5793976.53.8+0.23fair
21OTTAnton VolchenkovD6961334.41.9+0.34great value
22NJDDavid HaleD327292.01.9+0.02fair
23VANNathan SmithF2600.13.8-0.75BUST
24TORBrad BoyesF8225056.13.7+0.22fair
25DALSteve OttF8482884.83.6+0.13fair
26WSHBrian SutherbyF460903.03.4-0.06fair
27BOSMartin SamuelssonF1410.13.3-0.74BUST
28PHIJustin WilliamsF12647977.73.2+0.38great value
29DETNiklas KronwallD9534325.51.9+0.43great value
30STLJeff TaffeF180461.32.7-0.28poor value
31ATLIlya NikulinD000.01.9-0.65BUST
32CARTomas KurkaF1750.12.2-0.62BUST
33MINNick SchultzD10691755.71.9+0.44great value
34TBLRuslan ZainullinF000.01.8-0.64BUST
35EDMBrad WinchesterF390682.51.6+0.19fair
36NSHDaniel WidingF000.01.5-0.60BUST
37BOSAndy HilbertF3071042.41.5+0.18fair
38DETTomas KopeckyF5781743.21.5+0.30great value
39NJDTeemu LaineF000.01.5-0.60BUST
40CGYKurtis FosterD4051604.11.6+0.38great value
41SJSTero MaattaD000.01.5-0.61BUST
42ATLLibor UstrnulD000.01.5-0.61BUST
43WSHMatt PettingerF4221233.11.5+0.28great value
44ANAIlya BryzgalovG4654.41.0+0.53STEAL
45OTTMathieu ChouinardG10.01.0-0.50poor value
47COLJared AulinF1740.11.5-0.53BUST
49CHIJonas NordqvistF320.01.5-0.58BUST
50COLSergei SoinF000.01.5-0.60BUST
51TORKris VernarskyF1710.11.5-0.55BUST
52PITShane EndicottF4530.21.5-0.46poor value
53PHXAlexander TatarinovF000.01.5-0.60BUST
54LAKAndreas LiljaD580874.11.5+0.39great value
55OTTAntoine VermetteF10465156.01.5+0.53STEAL
56NJDAleksander SuglobovF1810.11.5-0.55BUST
57NJDMatt DemarchiD000.01.5-0.60BUST
58FLAVladimir SapozhnikovD000.01.5-0.60BUST
59BOSIvan HumlF49180.41.5-0.38poor value
60DALDan EllisG2121.71.0+0.18fair
61WSHJakub CuttaD800.01.5-0.57BUST
62NJDPaul MartinD8703205.91.4+0.54STEAL
63COLAgris SavielsD000.01.4-0.58BUST
64NYRFilip NovakD1700.11.3-0.52BUST
65STLDavid MorissetF400.01.5-0.59BUST
66BOSTuukka MakelaD000.01.3-0.56BUST
67NJDMaxim BirbraerF000.01.4-0.59BUST
68DALJoel LundqvistF134260.91.4-0.16fair
69CBJBen KnoppF000.01.4-0.58BUST
70TORMikael TellqvistG1130.91.0-0.01fair
71VANThatcher BellF000.01.3-0.57BUST
72NSHMattias NilssonD000.01.1-0.51BUST
73BOSSergei ZinovjevF1010.11.2-0.51BUST
74CHIIgor RadulovF43160.41.2-0.33poor value
75STLJustin PapineauF81190.61.2-0.22fair
76NJDMike RuppF610993.61.2+0.42great value
77FLARobert FriedF000.01.1-0.53BUST
78MTLJozef BalejF1860.11.1-0.43poor value
79MTLTyler HanchuckD000.01.0-0.49poor value
80CARRyan BaydaF179401.21.1+0.05fair
81TBLAlexandre KharitonovF71220.51.1-0.21fair
82FLASean O'ConnorF000.01.0-0.51BUST
83EDMAlexander LjubimovD000.00.9-0.48poor value
85PHXRamzi AbidF68300.61.0-0.14fair
86LAKYanick LehouxF1040.11.0-0.43poor value
87OTTJan BohacF000.00.9-0.48poor value
88COLKurt SauerD357332.20.9+0.33great value
89NSHLibor PivkoF100.00.9-0.47poor value
90TORJean-Francois RacineG00.01.0-0.50poor value
91DALAlexei TereschenkoF000.00.9-0.46poor value
92COLSergey KlyazminF000.00.9-0.46poor value
93VANTim BranhamD000.00.8-0.46poor value
94PHIAlexander DrozdetskyF000.00.8-0.46poor value
95NYRDominic MooreF8972824.30.8+0.56STEAL
96STLAntoine BergeronD000.00.8-0.45poor value
97CARNiclas WallinD614794.20.8+0.55STEAL
98ANAJonas RonnqvistF3840.20.8-0.30poor value
99MINMarc CavosieF000.00.8-0.45poor value
100TORMiguel DelisleF000.00.8-0.44poor value
101NYIArto TukioD000.00.8-0.45poor value
102DETStefan LivG00.00.8-0.43poor value
103BOSJames Brett NowakF000.00.8-0.44poor value
104SJSJon DisalvatoreF600.00.8-0.41poor value
105NYIVladimir GorbunovF000.00.8-0.43poor value
106CHIScott BalanD000.00.8-0.45poor value
107ATLCarl MalletteF000.00.8-0.43poor value
108ATLBlake RobsonF000.00.7-0.43poor value
109MTLJohan EneqvistF000.00.7-0.43poor value
110CARJared NewmanD000.00.8-0.45poor value
111BUFGhyslain RousseauG00.00.6-0.37poor value
112NYRPremsyl DubenD000.00.8-0.44poor value
113EDMLou DickensonF000.00.7-0.42poor value
114MTLChristian LarriveeF000.00.7-0.42poor value
115FLAChris EadeD000.00.8-0.44poor value
116CGYLevente SzuperG00.00.5-0.33poor value
117CHIOlli MalmivaaraD200.00.8-0.43poor value
118LAKLubomir VisnovskyD88349510.60.8+0.79STEAL
119COLBrian FaheyD710.00.8-0.39poor value
120FLADavis ParleyG00.00.4-0.30poor value
121WSHRyan VanbuskirkD000.00.8-0.43poor value
122OTTDerrick ByfuglienD000.00.7-0.43poor value
123DALVadim KhomitskiD000.00.7-0.42poor value
124PITMichel OuelletF1901161.90.6+0.36great value
125NJDPhil ColeD000.00.7-0.42poor value
126TBLJohan HagglundF000.00.6-0.39poor value
127DETDmitri SemyenovF000.00.6-0.39poor value
128DETAlexander SeluyanovD000.00.7-0.41poor value
129STLTroy RiddleF000.00.6-0.38poor value
130DETAaron Van LeusenF000.00.6-0.38poor value
131NSHMatt HendricksF6071161.50.6+0.29great value
132MINMaxim SushinskyF30110.20.6-0.20fair
133CBJPetteri NummelinD139451.40.7+0.22fair
134ANAPeter PodhradskyD000.00.7-0.40poor value
135NJDMichael DantonF87140.60.6-0.01fair
136NYIDimitri UpperF000.00.6-0.36poor value
137NSHMike StuartD300.00.7-0.38poor value
138CBJScott HeffernanD000.00.7-0.39poor value
139DALRuslan BernikovF000.00.6-0.36poor value
140NYRNathan MartzF000.00.5-0.35poor value
141CGYWade DavisD000.00.6-0.39poor value
142SJSMichael PincF000.00.5-0.35poor value
143NYRBrandon SneeG00.00.3-0.23fair
144VANPavel DumaF000.00.5-0.34poor value
145MTLRyan GlennD000.00.6-0.38poor value
146PITDavid KociD000.00.6-0.38poor value
147ATLMatt McRaeF000.00.5-0.34poor value
148NYIKristofer OttossonF000.00.5-0.34poor value
149BUFDenis DenisovF000.00.5-0.33poor value
150CBJTyler KolarikF000.00.5-0.33poor value
151CHIAlexander BarkunovD000.00.6-0.37poor value
153ANABill CassD000.00.6-0.37poor value
154NSHMatt KoalskaF300.00.5-0.32poor value
155CGYTravis MoenF7471363.70.5+0.62STEAL
156OTTGreg ZanonD493623.00.6+0.53STEAL
157OTTGrant PotulnyF000.00.5-0.33poor value
158OTTSean ConnollyD000.00.6-0.36poor value
159COLJohn-Michael LilesD8363707.40.5+0.76STEAL
160PHXNate KiserD000.00.5-0.35poor value
161TBLPavel SedovF000.00.5-0.33poor value
162DALArtem ChernovF000.00.5-0.33poor value
163WSHIvan NepriayevF000.00.5-0.33poor value
164NJDMatus KosturG00.00.3-0.23fair
165LAKNathan MarstersG00.00.3-0.23fair
166SJSNolan SchaeferG70.10.3-0.17fair
167STLCraig WellerD000.00.5-0.34poor value
168ATLZdenek SmidG00.00.3-0.23fair
169CBJShane BenderaG00.00.3-0.23fair
170MINErik ReitzD4820.30.5-0.14fair
171PHIRoman CechmanekG2122.80.3+0.61STEAL
172MTLScott SeligF000.00.5-0.33poor value
173NSHTomas HarantD000.00.5-0.33poor value
174BOSJarno KultanenD102130.70.5+0.10fair
175NYRSven HelfensteinF000.00.5-0.33poor value
176CGYJukka HentunenF3890.30.5-0.13fair
177CHIMichael AyersG00.00.3-0.23fair
178ATLJeff DwyerD000.00.5-0.32poor value
179TORVadim SozinovF000.00.5-0.33poor value
180ATLDarcy HordichukF542413.00.5+0.55STEAL
181CARJ.D. ForrestD000.00.5-0.31poor value
182MTLPetr ChvojkaD000.00.5-0.31poor value
183SJSMichal MachoF000.00.5-0.33poor value
184EDMShaun NorrieF000.00.5-0.33poor value
185PITPatrick FoleyF000.00.5-0.33poor value
186PHXBrent GauvreauF000.00.5-0.33poor value
187DETPer BackerF000.00.5-0.33poor value
188OTTJason MaleykoD000.00.4-0.30poor value
189COLChris BahenD000.00.4-0.30poor value
190FLAJosh OlsonF510.00.5-0.30poor value
191TBLAaron GionetD000.00.4-0.30poor value
192DALLadislav VlcekF000.00.5-0.33poor value
193CHIJoey MartinD000.00.4-0.29poor value
194NJDDeryk EngellandD6711271.10.4+0.29great value
195PHIColin ShieldsF000.00.5-0.33poor value
196DETPaul BallantyneD000.00.4-0.29poor value
197NSHZbynek IrglF000.00.5-0.33poor value
198NJDKen MagowanF000.00.5-0.33poor value
199MINBrian PassmoreF000.00.5-0.33poor value
200CBJJanne JokilaF000.00.5-0.33poor value
201LAKEvgeny FederovF000.00.5-0.33poor value
202NYIRyan CaldwellD400.00.4-0.27poor value
203NSHJure PenkoG00.00.3-0.23fair
204BOSChris BertiF000.00.5-0.33poor value
205NYRHenrik LundqvistG8876.00.3+0.78STEAL
206LAKTim ErikssonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
207CHICliff LoyaD000.00.4-0.29poor value
208VANBrandon ReidF1360.10.5-0.22fair
209TORMarkus SeikolaD000.00.4-0.29poor value
210PHIJohn EichelbergerF000.00.5-0.32poor value
211EDMJoe CullenF000.00.5-0.32poor value
212CARMagnus KahnbergF000.00.5-0.32poor value
213BUFVasily BizyayevF000.00.5-0.32poor value
214MINPeter BartosF1360.10.5-0.22fair
216PITJim AbbottF000.00.5-0.31poor value
217PHXIgor SamoilovD000.00.4-0.29poor value
218LAKCraig OlynickD000.00.4-0.29poor value
219DALMarco TuokkoF000.00.4-0.31poor value
220BUFPaul GaustadF7272314.10.4+0.66STEAL
221COLAaron MolnarG00.00.3-0.23fair
222TBLMarek PriechodskyD000.00.4-0.29poor value
223TORLubos VelebnyD000.00.4-0.29poor value
224DALAntti MiettinenF5392304.50.4+0.69STEAL
225CHIVladislav LuchkinF000.00.4-0.30poor value
226TBLBrian EklundG10.00.3-0.23fair
227PHIGuillaume LefebvreF3960.20.4-0.11fair
228DETJimmie SvenssonF000.00.4-0.30poor value
229STLBrett LutesF000.00.4-0.29poor value
230ATLSamu IsosaloF000.00.4-0.29poor value
231CBJPeter ZingoniF000.00.4-0.29poor value
232MINLubomir SekerasD213712.20.4+0.50great value
233TBLAlexander PolukeyevG00.00.3-0.23fair
234FLAJanis SpruktsF1430.10.4-0.21fair
235CARCraig KowalskiG00.00.3-0.23fair
236NSHMats ChristeenD000.00.4-0.29poor value
237BOSZdenek KutlakD1630.10.4-0.19fair
238NYRDan EberlyD000.00.4-0.29poor value
239CGYDavid HajekD000.00.4-0.29poor value
240CHIAdam BerkhoelG90.10.3-0.18fair
241VANNathan BarrettF000.00.4-0.28poor value
242ATLEvan NielsenD000.00.4-0.29poor value
243MTLJoni PuurulaG00.00.3-0.23fair
244ATLEric BowenF000.00.4-0.27poor value
245LAKDan WelchF000.00.4-0.27poor value
246SJSChad WisemanF920.10.4-0.22fair
247EDMJason PlattD000.00.4-0.29poor value
248PITSteven CramptonF000.00.4-0.27poor value
249PHXSami VenalainenF000.00.4-0.27poor value
250LAKFlavien ConneF000.00.4-0.27poor value
251DETTodd JacksonF000.00.4-0.26poor value
252COLDarryl BootlandF3230.20.4-0.11fair
253FLAMathew SommerfeldF000.00.4-0.26poor value
254TORAlexander ShinkarF000.00.4-0.26poor value
256SJSPasi SaarinenD000.00.4-0.29poor value
257NJDWarren McCutcheonF000.00.3-0.26poor value
258BUFSean McMorrowD000.00.4-0.29poor value
259PHIRegan KellyD000.00.4-0.29poor value
260DETEvgeni BumaginF000.00.3-0.26poor value
261STLReinhard DivisG280.10.3-0.11fair
262CHIPeter FlacheF000.00.3-0.26poor value
263TBLThomas ZieglerF500.00.3-0.24fair
264NYIDimitri AltarevF000.00.3-0.26poor value
265TORJean-Philippe CoteD2740.00.4-0.26poor value
266COLSean KotaryF000.00.3-0.26poor value
267NYITomi PettinenD2400.10.4-0.19fair
268BOSPavel KolarikD2300.10.4-0.20fair
269NYRMartin RichterD000.00.4-0.29poor value
270CGYMicki DupontD2340.20.4-0.15fair
271CHIReto Von ArxF1940.10.3-0.15fair
272VANTim SmithF000.00.3-0.26poor value
273PITRoman SimicekF63170.40.3+0.05fair
274EDMEvgeny MuratovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
275MTLJonathan GauthierD000.00.4-0.29poor value
276CARTroy FergusonF000.00.3-0.26poor value
277BUFRyan CourtneyF000.00.3-0.26poor value
278CBJMartin ParoulekF000.00.3-0.26poor value
279BOSAndreas LindstromF000.00.3-0.26poor value
280PITNick BoucherG00.00.3-0.23fair
281PHXPeter FabusF000.00.3-0.26poor value
282LAKCarl GrahnG00.00.3-0.23fair
283OTTJames DemoneD000.00.4-0.29poor value
284NSHMartin HohenerD000.00.4-0.29poor value
285COLBlake WardG00.00.3-0.23fair
286CBJAndrej NedorostF2850.20.3-0.11fair
287PHIMilan KopeckyF000.00.3-0.26poor value
288ATLMark McRaeD000.00.4-0.29poor value
289WSHBjorn NordD000.00.4-0.29poor value
290ATLSimon GamacheF48130.30.3-0.00fair
291CHIArne RamholtD000.00.4-0.29poor value
292CBJLouis MandevilleD000.00.4-0.29poor value
293STLLauri KinosD000.00.4-0.29poor value

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77