IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2001 draft class285 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1ATLIlya KovalchukF92687611.911.6+0.02fair
2OTTJason SpezzaF12489958.89.9-0.06fair
3TBLAlexander SvitovF179371.28.5-0.68BUST
4FLAStephen WeissF7324236.97.9-0.06fair
5ANAStanislav ChistovF196611.57.1-0.58BUST
6MINMikko KoivuF10357116.76.1+0.04fair
7MTLMike KomisarekD551813.75.1-0.15fair
8CBJPascal LeclaireG1731.71.0+0.19fair
9CHITuomo RuutuF7353465.74.1+0.15fair
10NYRDan BlackburnG630.51.0-0.20fair
11PHXFredrik SjostromF4891043.34.0-0.08fair
12NSHDan HamhuisD11483567.41.9+0.53STEAL
13EDMAles HemskyF8455727.34.0+0.27great value
14CGYChuck KobasewF6012104.84.0+0.09fair
15CARIgor KnyazevD000.01.9-0.65BUST
16VANR.J. UmbergerF7793926.24.0+0.20fair
17TORCarlo ColaiacovoD4701573.91.9+0.30great value
18LAKJens KarlssonF000.03.8-0.79BUST
19BOSShaone MorrisonnD480753.41.9+0.24fair
20SJSMarcel GocF6361884.13.8+0.03fair
21PITColby ArmstrongF4762094.33.8+0.06fair
22BUFJiri NovotnyF189511.43.8-0.40poor value
23OTTTim GleasonD7271425.01.9+0.40great value
24FLALukas KrajicekD328722.61.9+0.13fair
25MTLAlexander PerezhoginF128340.93.6-0.49poor value
26DALJason BacashihuaG380.21.0-0.35poor value
27PHIJeff WoywitkaD278552.21.9+0.05fair
28NJDAdrian FosterF000.03.2-0.76BUST
29CHIAdam MunroG170.11.0-0.41poor value
30LAKDavid SteckelF425792.92.7+0.03fair
31PHXMatthew SpillerD6820.41.9-0.47poor value
32BUFDerek RoyF7385247.42.2+0.49great value
33NSHTimofei ShishkanovF2450.22.0-0.58BUST
34FLAGreg WatsonF000.01.8-0.64BUST
35ANAMark PopovicD8170.51.7-0.37poor value
36MINKyle WanvigF75150.51.5-0.34poor value
37MTLDuncan MilroyF510.01.5-0.58BUST
38CBJTim JackmanF483752.71.5+0.22fair
39TORKarel PilarD90300.91.6-0.18fair
40NYRFedor TyutinD8722646.41.6+0.54STEAL
41CGYAndrei TaratukhinF000.01.5-0.60BUST
42NSHTomas SlovakD000.01.5-0.61BUST
43EDMDoug LynchD200.01.5-0.60BUST
44NJDIgor PohankaF000.01.5-0.60BUST
45PHXMartin PodlesakF000.01.5-0.60BUST
46CARMike ZigomanisF197401.31.5-0.06fair
47TBLAlexander PolushinF000.01.5-0.60BUST
48NJDTuomas PihlmanF1520.11.5-0.55BUST
49LAKMichael CammalleriF9066427.51.5+0.60STEAL
50BUFChris ThorburnF8011343.21.5+0.30great value
51LAKJaroslav BednarF102350.81.5-0.21fair
52EDMEdward CaronF000.01.5-0.60BUST
53CBJKiel McLeodF000.01.5-0.60BUST
54PITNoah WelchD7590.51.5-0.34poor value
55BUFJason PominvilleF10607277.51.5+0.60STEAL
56CGYAndrei MedvedevG00.01.0-0.50poor value
57STLJay McClementF9062444.91.5+0.46great value
59CHIMatt KeithF2750.21.5-0.49poor value
60NJDVictor UchevatovD000.01.5-0.60BUST
61TBLAndreas HolmqvistD000.01.5-0.59BUST
62DETIgor GrigorenkoF000.01.5-0.60BUST
63COLPeter BudajG3682.61.0+0.35great value
64FLATomas MalecD4620.21.3-0.42poor value
65TORBrendan BellD102280.91.3-0.13fair
66VANFedor FedorovF1820.11.5-0.53BUST
67NJDRobin LeblancF000.01.4-0.59BUST
68FLAGrant McNeillD300.01.2-0.53BUST
69ANAJoel SteppF000.01.4-0.58BUST
70DALYared HagosF000.01.3-0.57BUST
71MTLTomas PlekanecF10016086.91.3+0.61STEAL
73CHICraig AndersonG7094.11.0+0.51STEAL
74MINChris HeidD000.01.0-0.50BUST
75NSHDenis PlatonovF000.01.2-0.54BUST
76NSHOliver SetzingerF000.01.2-0.54BUST
77BOSDarren McLachlanF000.01.1-0.53BUST
78PHXBeat ForsterD000.01.0-0.49poor value
79NYRGarth MurrayF116100.61.1-0.17fair
80ATLMichael GarnettG240.21.0-0.36poor value
81OTTNeil KomadoskiD000.00.9-0.48poor value
82TORJay HarrisonD372752.20.9+0.32great value
83LAKHenrik JuntunenF000.01.0-0.50BUST
84EDMKenny SmithD000.00.9-0.48poor value
85CBJAaron JohnsonD291622.40.9+0.34great value
86PITDrew FataD820.10.9-0.42poor value
87CBJPer MarsF000.00.9-0.48poor value
88TORNicolas CorbeilF000.00.9-0.48poor value
89STLTuomas NissinenG00.01.0-0.50poor value
90WSHOwen FusseyF410.00.9-0.44poor value
91CARKevin EstradaF000.00.9-0.46poor value
92DALAnthony AquinoF000.00.9-0.46poor value
93MINStephane VeilleuxF5061063.10.8+0.46great value
94TBLEvgeny ArtyukhinF199491.40.8+0.17fair
95PHIPatrick SharpF9396206.90.8+0.69STEAL
96PITAlexandre RouleauD000.00.8-0.45poor value
97COLDanny BoisF100.00.8-0.45poor value
98NSHJordin TootooF7231614.00.8+0.55STEAL
99OTTRay EmeryG2872.80.8+0.43great value
100ATLBrian SipotzD000.00.8-0.45poor value
101NYICory StillmanF000.00.8-0.44poor value
102ANATimo ParssinenF1730.10.8-0.36poor value
103MINTony VirtaF850.10.8-0.37poor value
104CHIBrent MacLellanD000.00.8-0.45poor value
105ANAVladimir KorsunovD000.00.8-0.45poor value
106SJSChristian EhrhoffD7893397.50.8+0.72STEAL
107SJSDimitri PatzoldG30.00.7-0.40poor value
108CGYTomi MakiF100.00.7-0.42poor value
109MTLMartti JarventieD100.00.8-0.44poor value
110CARRob ZeppG100.00.6-0.37poor value
111BOSMatti KaltiainenG00.00.6-0.37poor value
112ATLMilan GajicF000.00.7-0.42poor value
113NYRBryce LampmanD1000.00.8-0.41poor value
114VANEvgeny GladskikhF000.00.7-0.42poor value
115CHIVladimir GusevD000.00.8-0.44poor value
116LAKRichard PetiotD1530.10.8-0.35poor value
117FLAMichael WoodfordF000.00.7-0.41poor value
118ANABrandon RogersD000.00.8-0.43poor value
119CHIAleksey ZotkinF000.00.7-0.40poor value
120PITTomas SurovyF126591.20.7+0.17fair
121DETDrew MacIntyreG60.00.4-0.29poor value
122STLIgor ValeevF000.00.7-0.40poor value
123TBLAaron LobbF000.00.7-0.39poor value
124CGYEgor ShastinF000.00.6-0.39poor value
125WSHJeff LuckyF000.00.6-0.39poor value
126DALDaniel VolrabF000.00.6-0.39poor value
127OTTChristoph SchubertD315722.60.7+0.43great value
128NJDAndrei PosnovF000.00.6-0.38poor value
129DETMiroslav BlatakD000.00.7-0.41poor value
130COLColt KingF000.00.6-0.38poor value
131PITBen EavesF000.00.6-0.38poor value
132NYIDusan SalfickyG00.00.3-0.23fair
133EDMJussi MarkkanenG1281.40.3+0.41great value
134TORKyle WellwoodF4892354.70.6+0.66STEAL
135ATLColin StuartF56130.40.6-0.10fair
136FLABilly ThompsonG00.00.3-0.23fair
137ANAJoel PerraultF96260.70.6+0.06fair
138TBLPaul LynchD000.00.7-0.39poor value
139NYRShawn CollymoreF000.00.6-0.36poor value
140SJSTomas PlihalF89160.60.5+0.01fair
141CBJCole JarrettD000.00.6-0.39poor value
142CHITommi JaminkiF000.00.5-0.35poor value
143COLFrantisek SkladanyF000.00.5-0.35poor value
144COLCody McCormickF405652.10.5+0.44great value
145CGYJames HakewillD000.00.6-0.38poor value
146PHIJussi TimonenD1440.10.6-0.28poor value
147BOSJiri JakesF000.00.5-0.34poor value
148PHXDavid KlemaF000.00.5-0.34poor value
149COLMikko ViitanenD000.00.6-0.37poor value
150PHIBernd BrucklerG00.00.3-0.23fair
151VANKevin BieksaD8082785.50.6+0.69STEAL
152LAKTerry DenikeG00.00.3-0.23fair
153LAKTuukka MantylaD000.00.6-0.37poor value
154EDMJake BrenkF000.00.5-0.33poor value
155BUFMichal VondrkaF000.00.5-0.33poor value
156PITAndy SchneiderD000.00.6-0.36poor value
157DETAndreas JamtinF000.00.5-0.33poor value
158PHIRoman MalekG00.00.3-0.23fair
159STLDimitri SeminF000.00.5-0.33poor value
160WSHArtem TernavskyD000.00.5-0.35poor value
161DALMike SmithG6703.20.3+0.64STEAL
162OTTStefan SchauerD000.00.5-0.35poor value
163NJDAndreas SalomonssonF71140.50.5-0.01fair
164CGYYuri TrubachevF000.00.5-0.33poor value
165COLPierre-Luc EmondF000.00.5-0.33poor value
167DALMichal BlazekD000.00.5-0.34poor value
168TORMaxim KondratievD4030.20.5-0.16fair
169FLADustin JohnerF000.00.5-0.33poor value
170ANAJan TabacekD000.00.5-0.33poor value
171MTLEric HimelfarbF000.00.5-0.33poor value
172PHIDennis SeidenbergD8592515.90.5+0.73STEAL
173CBJJustin AikinsF000.00.5-0.33poor value
174CHIAlexander GolvinF000.00.5-0.33poor value
175SJSRyane CloweF4913095.00.5+0.69STEAL
176NYRMarek ZidlickyD8364178.20.5+0.80STEAL
177PHIAndrei RazinF000.00.5-0.33poor value
178NSHAnton LavrentievD000.00.5-0.32poor value
179BOSAndrew AlbertsD459553.00.5+0.57STEAL
180PHXScott PolaskiF000.00.5-0.33poor value
181CARDaniel BoisclairG00.00.3-0.23fair
182SJSTom CavanaghF1830.10.5-0.24fair
183TORJaroslav SklenarF000.00.5-0.33poor value
184COLScott HorvathF000.00.5-0.33poor value
185EDMMikael SvenskD000.00.4-0.31poor value
186CHIPetr PuncocharD000.00.4-0.30poor value
187CBJArtem VostrikovF000.00.5-0.33poor value
188TBLArt FemenellaD000.00.4-0.30poor value
189ATLPasi NurminenG1251.10.3+0.33great value
190STLBrett ScheffelmaierD000.00.4-0.30poor value
191WSHZbynek NovakF000.00.5-0.33poor value
192DALJussi JokinenF9515636.40.5+0.75STEAL
193OTTBrooks LaichF7763325.40.5+0.71STEAL
194NJDJames MassenF000.00.5-0.33poor value
195DETNick PannoniG00.00.3-0.23fair
196COLCharlie StephensF820.10.5-0.28poor value
197NYIJan HolubD000.00.4-0.29poor value
198TORIvan KolozvaryF000.00.5-0.33poor value
199ATLMatt SudermanD000.00.4-0.29poor value
200FLAToni KoivistoF000.00.5-0.33poor value
201ATLColin FitzrandolphF000.00.5-0.33poor value
202MINDerek BoogaardF277161.50.5+0.33great value
203MTLAndrew ArcherD000.00.4-0.29poor value
204CBJRaffaele SannitzF000.00.5-0.33poor value
205CHITeemu JaaskelainenD000.00.4-0.29poor value
206NYRPetr PreucilF000.00.5-0.33poor value
207CGYGarett BembridgeF000.00.5-0.32poor value
208PHIThierry DouvilleD000.00.4-0.29poor value
209BOSJordan SigaletG10.00.3-0.23fair
210PHXSteve BelangerG00.00.3-0.23fair
211CARSean CurryD000.00.4-0.29poor value
212VANJason KingF59230.50.5+0.03fair
213TORJan ChovanG00.00.3-0.23fair
214LAKCristobal HuetG2723.10.3+0.64STEAL
215EDMDan BaumF000.00.5-0.31poor value
216CHIOleg MinakovF000.00.5-0.31poor value
217PITTomas DubaG00.00.3-0.23fair
218OTTJan PlatilD000.00.4-0.29poor value
219TBLDennis PackardF000.00.4-0.31poor value
220CGYDavid MossF5011783.40.4+0.61STEAL
221WSHJohnny OduyaD8501904.70.4+0.70STEAL
222TBLJeremy Van HoofD000.00.4-0.29poor value
223OTTBrandon BochenskiF156681.30.4+0.33great value
224ANATony MartenssonF620.10.4-0.26poor value
225PHIDavid PrintzD1300.10.4-0.24fair
226NYRPontus PetterstromF000.00.4-0.30poor value
227COLMarek SvatosF3441723.20.4+0.60STEAL
228NYIMike BrayF000.00.4-0.30poor value
229NJDAaron VorosF162371.10.4+0.28great value
230NYRLeonid ZhvachinD000.00.4-0.29poor value
231FLAKyle BruceF000.00.4-0.29poor value
232ANAMartin GerberG2292.70.3+0.60STEAL
233CGYJoe CampbellD000.00.4-0.29poor value
234BUFCalle AslundD000.00.4-0.29poor value
235OTTNeil PetruicD000.00.4-0.29poor value
236CBJRyan BownessF000.00.4-0.28poor value
237LAKMike GabinetD000.00.4-0.29poor value
238NYRRyan HollwegF228141.20.4+0.32great value
239MINJake RiddleF000.00.4-0.28poor value
240NSHGustav GrasbergF000.00.4-0.28poor value
241BOSMilan JurcinaD430813.30.4+0.61STEAL
242CBJAndrew MurrayF221401.40.4+0.38great value
243PHXFrantisek LukesF000.00.4-0.27poor value
244CARCarter TrevisaniD000.00.4-0.29poor value
245VANKonstantin MihailovF000.00.4-0.27poor value
246TORTomas MojzisD1730.10.4-0.19fair
247BUFMarek DubecD000.00.4-0.29poor value
248EDMKari HaakanaD1300.10.4-0.24fair
249WSHMatt MaglioneD000.00.4-0.29poor value
250PITBrandon Crawford-WestG00.00.3-0.23fair
251CGYVille HamalainenF000.00.4-0.26poor value
252TBLJean-Francois SoucyF000.00.4-0.26poor value
253STLPetr CajanekF2691532.70.4+0.58STEAL
254WSHPeter PolcikF000.00.4-0.26poor value
255DALMarco RosaF000.00.3-0.26poor value
256OTTGregg JohnsonF000.00.3-0.26poor value
257NJDEvgeny GamalejD000.00.4-0.29poor value
258DETDmitri BykovD71120.50.4+0.06fair
259TBLDimitri BezrukovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
260NYIBryan PerezF000.00.3-0.26poor value
261TBLVitali SmolyninovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
262ATLMario CartelliD000.00.4-0.29poor value
263FLAJan BlanarD000.00.4-0.29poor value
264ANAPA ParenteauF4912963.30.3+0.63STEAL
265DALDale SullivanF000.00.3-0.26poor value
266MTLViktor UjcikF000.00.3-0.26poor value
267FLAIvan MajeskyD202311.40.4+0.36great value
268CHIJeff MilesF000.00.3-0.26poor value
269NYRJuris StalsF000.00.3-0.26poor value
270STLGrant JacobsenF000.00.3-0.26poor value
271NSHMikko LehtonenD1530.10.4-0.19fair
272EDMAles PisaD5340.30.4-0.06fair
273PHXSeverin BlindenbacherD000.00.4-0.29poor value
274CARPeter ReynoldsD000.00.4-0.29poor value
275WSHRobert MullerG00.00.3-0.23fair
276TORMike KnoepfliF000.00.3-0.26poor value
277LAKSebastien LaplanteG00.00.3-0.23fair
279BUFRyan JordeD000.00.4-0.29poor value
280NYIRoman KuhtinovD000.00.4-0.29poor value
281TBLIlya SolarevF000.00.3-0.26poor value
282BOSMarcel RodmanF000.00.3-0.26poor value
283STLSimon SkoogD000.00.4-0.29poor value
284WSHViktor HublF000.00.3-0.26poor value
285DALMarek TomicaF000.00.3-0.26poor value
286OTTToni DahlmanF2220.10.3-0.15fair
287NYIJuha-Pekka KetolaF000.00.3-0.26poor value
288DETFrancois SenezD000.00.4-0.29poor value
289TBLHenrik BergforsD000.00.4-0.29poor value

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77