IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2002 draft class288 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1CBJRick NashF106080510.111.6-0.06fair
2ATLKari LehtonenG6495.35.6-0.03fair
3FLAJay BouwmeesterD12404249.66.3+0.20fair
4PHIJoni PitkanenD5352826.96.3+0.05fair
5PITRyan WhitneyD4812596.46.3+0.01fair
6NSHScottie UpshallF7592844.56.1-0.14fair
7ANAJoffrey LupulF7014206.76.1+0.04fair
8MINPierre-Marc BouchardF5933566.44.1+0.20fair
9FLAPetr TaticekF300.04.1-0.80BUST
10CGYEric NystromF5931233.64.0-0.05fair
11BUFKeith BallardD6041755.51.9+0.43great value
12WSHSteve EmingerD488993.91.9+0.30great value
13WSHAlexander SeminF6505177.94.0+0.30great value
14MTLChris HigginsF7113335.94.0+0.17fair
15EDMJesse NiinimakiF000.04.0-0.80BUST
16OTTJakub KlepisF66140.44.0-0.66BUST
17WSHBoyd GordonF7061614.33.9+0.04fair
18LAKDenis GrebeshkovD234852.41.9+0.09fair
19PHXJakub KoreisF000.03.8-0.79BUST
20BUFDaniel PailleF5821724.23.8+0.04fair
21CHIAnton BabchukD2891073.01.9+0.19fair
22NYISean BergenheimF5061803.73.8-0.01fair
23PHXBen EagerF407852.83.8-0.13fair
24TORAlexander SteenF10186226.63.7+0.26great value
25CARCam WardG7015.01.0+0.58STEAL
27SJSMike MorrisF000.03.3-0.77BUST
28COLJonas JohanssonF100.03.2-0.76BUST
29BOSHannu ToivonenG610.61.0-0.16fair
30ATLJim SlaterF5841383.72.7+0.13fair
31EDMJeff DeslauriersG620.51.0-0.19fair
32DALJanos VasF000.02.2-0.69BUST
33NYRLee FalardeauF000.02.0-0.67BUST
34DALTobias StephanG110.01.0-0.47poor value
35PITOndrej NemecD000.01.7-0.62BUST
36EDMJarret StollF8723887.11.5+0.58STEAL
38MINJosh HardingG1511.91.0+0.24fair
39CGYBrian McConnellF000.01.5-0.60BUST
40FLARob GlobkeF4620.21.5-0.47poor value
41CBJJoakim LindstromF150430.81.5-0.23fair
42DALMarius HoltetF000.01.5-0.60BUST
43DALTrevor DaleyD10583096.51.5+0.55STEAL
44EDMMatt GreeneD615803.51.5+0.33great value
45MTLTomas LinhartD000.01.5-0.60BUST
46PHXDavid LeneveuG220.11.0-0.41poor value
47OTTAlexei KaigorodovF610.01.5-0.58BUST
48STLAlexei ShkotovF000.01.5-0.60BUST
49VANKiril KoltsovD000.01.5-0.60BUST
50LAKSergei AnshakovF000.01.5-0.60BUST
51NJDAnton KadeykinD000.01.5-0.60BUST
52SJSDan SpangD000.01.5-0.60BUST
53NJDBarry TallacksonF2020.11.5-0.53BUST
54CHIDuncan KeithD12566469.31.5+0.66STEAL
55VANDenis GrotD000.01.5-0.60BUST
56BOSVladislav EvseevF000.01.5-0.60BUST
57TORMatt StajanF10034137.01.5+0.57STEAL
58DETJiri HudlerF7084285.71.5+0.51STEAL
59WSHMaxime DaigneaultG00.01.0-0.50poor value
60TBLAdam HenrichF000.01.5-0.60BUST
61COLJohnny BoychukD7252062.91.5+0.27great value
62STLAndrei MikhnovF000.01.5-0.60BUST
63DETTomas FleischmannF6573355.61.5+0.50STEAL
64NJDJason RyznarF800.01.5-0.58BUST
65CBJOle-Kristian TollefsenD163121.01.3-0.11fair
66LAKPetr KankoF1010.11.5-0.56BUST
67FLAGregory CampbellF8031874.91.4+0.47great value
68VANBrett SkinnerD1100.11.2-0.51BUST
69PITErik ChristensenF3871633.41.4+0.35great value
70PHXJoe CallahanD4640.31.1-0.35poor value
71ANABrian LeeD1.1
72MINMichael EricksonF000.01.3-0.56BUST
73MINBarry BrustG110.11.0-0.46poor value
74TORTodd FordG00.01.0-0.50poor value
75OTTArttu LuttinenF000.01.2-0.54BUST
76BUFMichael TessierF000.01.2-0.54BUST
77WSHPatrick WellarD000.01.0-0.50poor value
78DALGeoff WaughD000.01.0-0.49poor value
79EDMBrock RadunskeF000.01.1-0.52BUST
80PHXMatt JonesD106110.70.9-0.11fair
81NYRMarcus JonasenF000.01.1-0.51BUST
82BUFJohn AdamsD000.00.9-0.48poor value
83VANLukas MensatorG00.01.0-0.50poor value
84NJDMarek ChvatalD000.00.9-0.48poor value
85NJDAhren NittelF000.01.0-0.49poor value
87NYIFrans NielsenF9254735.00.9+0.58STEAL
88TORDominic D'AmourD000.00.9-0.46poor value
89STLTomas TroligaF000.00.9-0.47poor value
90CGYMatthew LombardiF5362625.20.9+0.61STEAL
91CARJesse LaneD000.00.8-0.46poor value
92WSHDerek KrestanovichF000.00.9-0.46poor value
93CHIAlexander KojevnikovF000.00.8-0.46poor value
94COLEric LundbergD000.00.8-0.46poor value
95DETValtteri FilppulaF10565305.90.8+0.65STEAL
96CBJJeff GenovyF000.00.8-0.45poor value
97PHXLance MonychF000.00.8-0.45poor value
98CBJIvan TkachenkoF000.00.8-0.45poor value
99MTLMichael LambertF000.00.8-0.45poor value
100TBLDimitri KazionovF000.00.8-0.44poor value
101PITDaniel FernholmD000.00.8-0.45poor value
102NSHBrandon SegalF103220.70.8-0.03fair
103ANAJoonas VihkoF000.00.8-0.44poor value
104LAKAaron RomeD226281.70.8+0.24fair
105PHIRosario RuggeriD000.00.8-0.45poor value
106EDMIvan KoltsovD000.00.8-0.45poor value
107COLMikko KaltevaD000.00.8-0.45poor value
108BUFJakub HulvaF000.00.7-0.43poor value
109WSHJevon DesautelsF000.00.7-0.43poor value
110DALJarkko A. ImmonenF000.00.7-0.42poor value
111EDMJonas AlmtorpF000.00.7-0.42poor value
112CGYYuri ArtemenkovF000.00.7-0.42poor value
113OTTScott DobbenF000.00.7-0.42poor value
114VANJohn LaliberteF000.00.7-0.42poor value
115LAKMark RooneemF000.00.7-0.41poor value
116ATLPatrick DwyerF416932.70.7+0.46great value
117NJDCam JanssenF336141.80.7+0.31great value
118WSHPetr DvorakF000.00.7-0.41poor value
119CBJJekabs RedlihsD000.00.8-0.43poor value
120STLRobin JonssonD000.00.8-0.43poor value
121BUFMarty MagersG00.00.4-0.29poor value
122TORDavid TuronD000.00.7-0.43poor value
123EDMVoidF000.00.7-0.39poor value
124ATLLane MansonD000.00.7-0.42poor value
125OTTJohan BjorkD000.00.7-0.42poor value
126PHIKonstantin BaranovF000.00.6-0.39poor value
127NYRNate GueninD205280.70.7-0.02fair
128CHIMatt EllisonF43140.30.6-0.15fair
129COLTom GilbertD6552235.90.7+0.68STEAL
130BOSJan KubistaF000.00.6-0.38poor value
131DETJohan BerggrenD000.00.7-0.41poor value
132PHXJohn ZeilerF9050.50.6-0.06fair
133CBJLasse PirjetaF146501.20.6+0.22fair
134FLATopi JaakolaD000.00.7-0.40poor value
135TBLJoseph PearceG00.00.3-0.23fair
136PITAndrew SertichF000.00.6-0.36poor value
137PITCam PaddockF1630.10.6-0.28poor value
138NSHPatrick JarrettF000.00.6-0.36poor value
139SJSKris NewburyF76100.50.6-0.03fair
140ANAGeorge DavisF000.00.5-0.35poor value
141CGYJiri CetkovskyF000.00.5-0.35poor value
142CGYEmanuel PeterF000.00.5-0.35poor value
143NYRMike WalshF000.00.5-0.35poor value
144ATLPaul FlacheD000.00.6-0.38poor value
145WSHRobert GhersonG00.00.3-0.23fair
146CGYVictor BobrovF000.00.5-0.34poor value
147DALDavid BararukF000.00.5-0.34poor value
148EDMGlenn FisherG00.00.3-0.23fair
149NYIMarcus PaulssonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
150OTTBrock HootonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
151VANRobert McVicarG10.00.3-0.23fair
152LAKGreg HogeboomF000.00.5-0.33poor value
153BOSPeter HamerlikG00.00.3-0.23fair
154NJDKrisjanis RedlihsD000.00.6-0.36poor value
155MINArmands BerzinsF000.00.5-0.33poor value
156CHIJames WisniewskiD5522746.20.6+0.73STEAL
157LAKJoel AndresenD000.00.6-0.36poor value
158FLAVince BellissimoF000.00.5-0.33poor value
159CGYKristofer PerssonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
160CARDaniel ManzatoG00.00.3-0.23fair
161PHIDov Grumet-MorrisG00.00.3-0.23fair
162TBLGerard DicaireD000.00.5-0.35poor value
163SJSTom WalshD000.00.5-0.35poor value
164COLTyler WeimanG10.00.3-0.23fair
165STLJustin MaiserF000.00.5-0.33poor value
166DETLogan KoopmansG00.00.3-0.23fair
167ATLBrad SchellF000.00.5-0.33poor value
168CBJTim KonsoradaF000.00.5-0.33poor value
169FLAJeremy SwansonD000.00.5-0.34poor value
170TBLP.J. AthertonD000.00.5-0.33poor value
171PITRobert GoepfertG00.00.3-0.23fair
172NSHMike McKennaG350.10.3-0.11fair
173ANALuke FritshawD000.00.5-0.33poor value
174TBLKarri AkkanenF000.00.5-0.33poor value
175MINMatt FoyF56130.40.5-0.06fair
176CGYCurtis McElhinneyG2490.60.3+0.18fair
177NYRJake TaylorD000.00.5-0.32poor value
178BUFMaxim ShevievF000.00.5-0.33poor value
179WSHMarian HavelF000.00.5-0.33poor value
180DALKirill SidorenkoF000.00.5-0.33poor value
181EDMMikko LuomaD310.00.5-0.29poor value
182MTLAndre DeveauxF3120.20.5-0.20fair
183TBLPaul RangerD3231063.10.5+0.58STEAL
184CBJJaroslav BalastikF74240.60.5+0.03fair
185LAKRyan MurphyF000.00.5-0.33poor value
186PHXJeff PietrasiakG00.00.3-0.23fair
187NJDEric JohanssonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
188CHIKevin KanteeD000.00.4-0.30poor value
189NYIAlexei StonkusD000.00.4-0.30poor value
190STLDJ KingF118110.70.5+0.08fair
191TORIan WhiteD5031795.20.4+0.72STEAL
192PHINikita KorovkinD000.00.4-0.29poor value
193PHIJoey MorminaD100.00.4-0.29poor value
194NYRKim HirschovitsF000.00.5-0.33poor value
195COLTaylor ChristieD000.00.4-0.29poor value
196FLAMikael VuorioG00.00.3-0.23fair
197DETJames CuddihyF000.00.5-0.33poor value
198ATLNathan OystrickD65150.50.4+0.06fair
199CBJGreg MauldinF36100.30.5-0.13fair
200FLADenis YachmenevF000.00.5-0.33poor value
201PHIMathieu BrunelleF000.00.5-0.33poor value
202PITPatrik BartschiF000.00.5-0.33poor value
203NSHJosh MorrowD000.00.4-0.29poor value
204MINNiklas EckerblomF000.00.5-0.33poor value
205EDMJean-Francois DufortF000.00.5-0.33poor value
206CGYDavid Van Der GulikF49130.40.5-0.04fair
207CGYPierre JohnssonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
208BUFRadoslav HeclD1400.10.4-0.23fair
209WSHJoni LindlofF000.00.5-0.32poor value
210DALBryan HammD000.00.4-0.29poor value
211EDMPatrick MurphyF000.00.5-0.32poor value
212MTLJonathan FerlandF710.00.5-0.28poor value
213TBLFredrik NorrenaG1000.70.3+0.21fair
214VANMarc-Andre RoyF000.00.5-0.32poor value
215LAKMikhail LyubushinD000.00.4-0.29poor value
216PHXLadislav KoubaF000.00.5-0.31poor value
217SJSTim ConboyD5960.40.4-0.02fair
218NJDIlkka PikkarainenF3140.20.4-0.16fair
219CHITyson KellermanG00.00.3-0.23fair
220NYIBrad ToppingG00.00.3-0.23fair
221STLJonas JohnsonF000.00.4-0.31poor value
222TORScott MayF000.00.4-0.30poor value
223VANIlia KrikunovF000.00.4-0.30poor value
224CARAdam TaylorF000.00.4-0.30poor value
225CBJSteven GoertzenF6840.40.4-0.04fair
226NYRJoey CrabbF179531.50.4+0.36great value
227COLRyan SteevesF000.00.4-0.30poor value
228BOSDmitri UtkinF000.00.4-0.30poor value
229DETDerek MeechD144171.00.4+0.25fair
230ATLColton FretterF000.00.4-0.29poor value
231CBJJaroslav KracikF000.00.4-0.29poor value
232FLAPeter HafnerD000.00.4-0.29poor value
233TBLVasily KoshechkinG00.00.3-0.23fair
234PITMax TalbotF7042044.70.4+0.70STEAL
235NSHKaleb BettsF000.00.4-0.29poor value
236ATLTyler BoldtD000.00.4-0.29poor value
237MINChristoph BrandnerF3590.30.4-0.08fair
238CGYJyri MarttinenD000.00.4-0.29poor value
239PITRyan LannonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
240NYRPetr PruchaF3461462.90.4+0.59STEAL
241BUFDennis WidemanD8153877.80.4+0.80STEAL
242WSHIgor IgnatushkinF000.00.4-0.28poor value
243DALTuomas MikkonenF000.00.4-0.27poor value
244EDMDwight HelminenF2730.20.4-0.14fair
245EDMTomas MickaF000.00.4-0.27poor value
246OTTJosef VavraF000.00.4-0.27poor value
247VANMatt ViolinG00.00.3-0.23fair
248LAKTuukka PulliainenF000.00.4-0.27poor value
249PHXMarcus SmithD000.00.4-0.29poor value
250NJDDan GloverD000.00.4-0.29poor value
251CHIJason KostadineF000.00.4-0.26poor value
252NYIMartin ChabadaF000.00.4-0.26poor value
253STLTom KoivistoD2260.20.4-0.13fair
254TORJarkko ImmonenF2080.20.4-0.12fair
255TBLRyan CraigF198631.50.3+0.40great value
256TBLDarren ReidF2110.10.3-0.17fair
257ATLPauli LevokariD000.00.4-0.29poor value
258COLSergei ShemetovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
259BOSYan StastnyF91160.60.3+0.12fair
260DETPierre-Olivier BeaulieuD000.00.4-0.29poor value
261ANAFrancois CaronD000.00.4-0.29poor value
262DETChristian SoderstromF000.00.3-0.26poor value
263CBJSergei MozyakinF000.00.3-0.26poor value
264NSHMatt DavisG00.00.3-0.23fair
265PITDwight LabrosseG00.00.3-0.23fair
266NSHSteven SpencerD000.00.4-0.29poor value
267ANAChris PetrowD000.00.4-0.29poor value
268MINMikhail TyulyapkinD000.00.4-0.29poor value
269MINMika HannulaF000.00.3-0.26poor value
270NYRRob FlynnF000.00.3-0.26poor value
271BUFMartin CizekD000.00.4-0.29poor value
272WSHPatric BlomdahlF000.00.3-0.26poor value
273DALNed HavernF000.00.3-0.26poor value
274EDMFredrik JohanssonF000.00.3-0.26poor value
275MTLKonstantin KorneevD000.00.4-0.29poor value
276OTTVitali AtyushovD000.00.4-0.29poor value
277VANThomas NussliF000.00.3-0.26poor value
278VANMatt GensD000.00.4-0.29poor value
279LAKConnor JamesF1610.10.3-0.18fair
280PHXRussell SpenceF000.00.3-0.26poor value
281NJDBill KinkelF000.00.3-0.26poor value
282CHIAdam BurishF378602.40.3+0.55STEAL
283NYIPer BraxenholmD000.00.4-0.29poor value
284STLRyan MacMurchyF000.00.3-0.26poor value
285TORStaffan KronwallD6640.40.4-0.02fair
286TBLAlexei GlukhovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
287TBLJohn ToffeyF000.00.3-0.26poor value
288SJSMichael HutchinsD000.00.4-0.29poor value
289COLSean CollinsF0.3
290BOSPavel FrolovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
291DETJonathan EricssonD6801252.90.4+0.58STEAL

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77