IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2004 draft class289 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1WSHAlex OvechkinF1573168713.611.6+0.08fair
2PITEvgeni MalkinF1269140710.69.9+0.03fair
3CHICam BarkerD310963.06.3-0.32poor value
4CARAndrew LaddF10015508.67.9+0.04fair
5PHXBlake WheelerF11729437.77.1+0.04fair
6NYRAl MontoyaG1681.51.9-0.08fair
7FLARostislav OleszF3651343.06.1-0.31poor value
8CBJAlexandre PicardF6720.34.1-0.69BUST
9ANALadislav SmidD583724.15.1-0.10fair
10ATLBoris ValabikD8070.51.9-0.42poor value
11LAKLauri TukonenF500.04.0-0.79BUST
12MINA.J. ThelenD000.01.9-0.65BUST
13BUFDrew StaffordF8414287.14.0+0.26great value
14EDMDevan DubnykG5423.51.0+0.45great value
15NSHAlexander RadulovF5243681.74.0-0.35poor value
16NYIPetteri NokelainenF245411.64.0-0.37poor value
17STLMarek SchwarzG60.01.0-0.49poor value
18MTLKyle ChipchuraF4821043.63.8-0.03fair
19NYRLauri KorpikoskiF6092014.63.8+0.08fair
20NJDTravis ZajacF10375527.43.8+0.29great value
21COLWojtek WolskiF4512674.83.8+0.10fair
22SJSLukas KasparF1640.13.8-0.75BUST
23OTTAndrej MeszarosD6452386.71.9+0.50STEAL
24CGYKris ChuckoF200.03.7-0.78BUST
25EDMRob SchrempF114541.13.6-0.44poor value
26VANCory SchneiderG4104.11.0+0.51STEAL
27WSHJeff SchultzD409763.21.9+0.22fair
28DALMark FistricD325342.21.9+0.06fair
29WSHMike GreenD8805019.41.9+0.61STEAL
30TBLAndy RogersD000.01.9-0.65BUST
31PITJohannes SalmonssonF000.02.5-0.71BUST
32CHIDave BollandF4332084.32.2+0.27great value
33WSHChris BourqueF5180.42.0-0.46poor value
34DALJohan FranssonD000.01.8-0.65BUST
35PHXLogan StephensonD000.01.7-0.62BUST
36NYRDarin OlverF000.01.5-0.60BUST
37FLADavid ShantzG00.01.0-0.50poor value
38CARJustin PetersG830.81.0-0.07fair
39ANAJordan SmithD000.01.6-0.61BUST
40ATLGrant LewisD100.01.6-0.61BUST
41CHIBryan BickellF3951363.51.5+0.33great value
42MINRoman VoloshenkoF000.01.5-0.60BUST
43BUFMichael FunkD920.11.5-0.56BUST
44EDMRoman TeslyukD000.01.5-0.60BUST
45CHIRyan GarlockF000.01.5-0.60BUST
46CBJAdam PineaultF300.01.5-0.59BUST
47NYIBlake ComeauF9093345.21.5+0.47great value
48NYRDane ByersF1410.11.5-0.56BUST
49STLCarl SoderbergF5972972.61.5+0.22fair
50PHXEnver LisinF135421.01.5-0.14fair
51NYRBruce GrahamF000.01.5-0.60BUST
52DALRaymond SawadaF1110.11.5-0.56BUST
53FLADavid BoothF5302364.61.5+0.44great value
54CHIJakub SindelF000.01.5-0.60BUST
55COLVictor OreskovichF6790.41.5-0.38poor value
56DALNicklas GrossmannD592864.31.5+0.41great value
57EDMGeoff PaukovichF000.01.5-0.60BUST
58OTTKirill LyaminD000.01.5-0.60BUST
59CBJKyle WhartonD000.01.5-0.60BUST
60NYRBrandon DubinskyF8234386.81.5+0.56STEAL
61PITAlex GoligoskiD10784757.31.5+0.60STEAL
62WSHMichail YunkovF000.01.5-0.60BUST
63BOSDavid KrejciF10327867.91.5+0.61STEAL
64BOSMartins KarsumsF2460.21.5-0.50BUST
65TBLMark TobinF000.01.5-0.60BUST
66WSHSami LepistoD176351.41.3+0.03fair
67PITNick JohnsonF113371.01.4-0.13fair
68CHIAdam BertiF200.01.4-0.58BUST
69CARCasey BorerD1630.11.2-0.45poor value
70CGYBrandon PrustF4861153.71.3+0.39great value
71BUFAndrej SekeraD8422535.81.1+0.60STEAL
72COLDenis ParshinF000.01.3-0.56BUST
73NYRZdenek BahenskyF000.01.2-0.55BUST
74ANAKyle KlubertanzD000.01.0-0.50BUST
75ANATim BrentF207481.61.2+0.10fair
76ATLScott LehmanD100.01.0-0.49poor value
77OTTShawn WellerF000.01.1-0.53BUST
78MINPeter OlveckyF3270.21.1-0.39poor value
79MINClayton StonerD360482.61.0+0.36great value
80NYRBilly RyanF000.01.1-0.52BUST
81NSHVaclav MeidlF000.01.1-0.51BUST
82NYISergei OgorodnikovF000.01.0-0.51BUST
83STLVictor AlexandrovF000.01.0-0.50BUST
84MTLAlexei EmelinD456812.60.9+0.38great value
85PITBrian GiffordF000.01.0-0.49poor value
86DALJohn LammersF000.01.0-0.49poor value
87OTTPeter ReginF243671.90.9+0.26great value
88WSHClayton BarthelD000.00.9-0.46poor value
89OTTJeff GlassG150.01.0-0.50poor value
90TORJustin PoggeG70.01.0-0.47poor value
91VANAlexander EdlerD10304397.60.8+0.71STEAL
92PHIRob BellamyF000.00.9-0.46poor value
93CBJDaniel LacostaG40.00.9-0.46poor value
94SJSThomas GreissG3681.60.9+0.19fair
95LAKPaul BaierD000.00.8-0.46poor value
96CBJAndrey PlekhanovD000.00.8-0.45poor value
97DETJohan FranzenF6023706.70.8+0.69STEAL
98CGYDustin BoydF220631.60.8+0.24fair
99PITTyler KennedyF5272154.80.8+0.61STEAL
100MTLJT WymanF44110.30.8-0.23fair
101PHIR.J. AndersonD000.00.8-0.45poor value
102TBLMike LundinD252361.80.8+0.27great value
103PHXRoman TomanekF000.00.8-0.44poor value
104DALFredrik NaslundF000.00.8-0.44poor value
105FLAEvan SchaferD000.00.8-0.45poor value
106ATLChad PainchaudF000.00.8-0.43poor value
107NSHNick FugereF000.00.8-0.43poor value
109CARBrett CarsonD90130.70.8-0.05fair
110LAKNed LukacevicF000.00.7-0.42poor value
111MINRyan JonesF3341002.70.7+0.45great value
112EDMLiam ReddoxF100240.70.7-0.01fair
113TORRoman KukumbergF000.00.7-0.42poor value
114MINPatrick BordeleauF129161.00.7+0.10fair
115NYIWes O'NeillD500.00.8-0.42poor value
116STLMichal BirnerF000.00.7-0.41poor value
117MINJulien SprungerF000.00.7-0.41poor value
118CGYAki SeitsonenF000.00.7-0.41poor value
119PHXKevin PorterF249581.90.7+0.34great value
120CHIMitch MaunuD000.00.8-0.43poor value
121CGYKristopher HoggF000.00.7-0.40poor value
122OTTAlexander NikulinF300.00.7-0.39poor value
123CHIKarel HromasF000.00.7-0.39poor value
124PHIDavid LaliberteF1130.10.6-0.33poor value
125VANAndrew SarauerF000.00.6-0.39poor value
126SJSTorrey MitchellF6661523.90.6+0.59STEAL
127NYRRyan CallahanF7573866.70.6+0.73STEAL
128DETEvan McGrathF000.00.6-0.38poor value
129SJSJason ChurchillG00.00.3-0.23fair
130PITMichal SersenD000.00.7-0.41poor value
131CHITrevor KellF000.00.6-0.38poor value
132WSHOscar HedmanD000.00.7-0.41poor value
133CBJPetr PohlF000.00.6-0.37poor value
134BOSKris VersteegF6433585.70.6+0.70STEAL
135NYRRoman PsurnyF000.00.6-0.37poor value
136STLNikita NikitinD259762.60.7+0.46great value
137CARMagnus AkerlundG00.00.3-0.23fair
138WSHPasi SalonenF000.00.6-0.36poor value
139NSHKyle MoirG00.00.3-0.23fair
140CHIJake DowellF157331.10.5+0.20fair
141OTTJim McKenzieF000.00.5-0.35poor value
142ATLJuraj GracikF000.00.5-0.35poor value
143LAKEric NeilsonF000.00.5-0.35poor value
144PHIChris ZarbD000.00.6-0.38poor value
145BUFMichal ValentG00.00.3-0.23fair
146EDMBryan YoungD1700.10.6-0.31poor value
147NSHJanne NiskalaD630.10.6-0.32poor value
148NYISteve RegierF2640.20.5-0.21fair
149PHIGino PiselliniF000.00.5-0.33poor value
150MTLMikhail GrabovskiF5342965.70.5+0.72STEAL
151DETSergei KolosovD000.00.6-0.37poor value
152FLABret NasbyD000.00.6-0.37poor value
153SJSSteven ZalewskiF1000.00.5-0.29poor value
154COLRichard Demen-WillaumeD000.00.6-0.36poor value
155NJDAlexander MikhailishinD000.00.6-0.36poor value
156OTTRoman WickF700.00.5-0.30poor value
157TORDmitri VorobievD000.00.6-0.36poor value
158TBLBrandon ElliottD000.00.6-0.36poor value
159VANMike BrownF407362.50.5+0.49great value
160BOSBen WalterF2410.10.5-0.23fair
161MINJean-Claude SawyerD000.00.5-0.35poor value
162DETTyler HaskinsF000.00.5-0.33poor value
163TBLDustin CollinsF000.00.5-0.33poor value
164PITMoises GutierrezF000.00.5-0.33poor value
165CHIScott McCullochF000.00.5-0.33poor value
166WSHPeter GuggisbergF000.00.5-0.33poor value
167CBJRob PageD000.00.5-0.34poor value
168PHXKevin CormierF000.00.5-0.33poor value
169NYRJordan FooteF000.00.5-0.33poor value
170PHILadislav ScurkoF000.00.5-0.33poor value
171PHIFederik CabanaF000.00.5-0.33poor value
172ANAMatt AuffreyF000.00.5-0.33poor value
173CGYAdam PardyD342522.50.5+0.50STEAL
174LAKScott ParseF73300.60.5+0.07fair
175MINAaron BoogaardF000.00.5-0.33poor value
176BUFPatrick KaletaF348542.30.5+0.48great value
177EDMMax GordichukD000.00.5-0.32poor value
178NSHMike SantorelliF4061383.40.5+0.60STEAL
179NYIJaroslav MrazekD000.00.5-0.32poor value
180STLRoman PolakD8061404.50.5+0.67STEAL
181MTLLoic LacasseG00.00.3-0.23fair
182CGYFred WiknerF000.00.5-0.33poor value
183DALTrevor LudwigD000.00.5-0.31poor value
184COLDerek PeltierD1400.10.4-0.25poor value
185NJDJosh DisherG00.00.3-0.23fair
186ATLDan TurpleG00.00.3-0.23fair
187TORRobbie EarlF4770.30.5-0.11fair
188TBLJan ZapletalD000.00.4-0.30poor value
189VANJulien Ellis-PlanteG00.00.3-0.23fair
190CBJLennart PetrellF95180.80.5+0.14fair
191TBLKarri RamoG1591.40.3+0.40great value
192DETAnton AxelssonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
193NSHKevin SchaefferD000.00.4-0.29poor value
194PITChris PelusoD000.00.4-0.29poor value
195MINJean-Michel RizkF000.00.5-0.33poor value
196CHIPetri KontiolaF1250.10.5-0.25fair
197WSHAndrew GordonF5570.40.5-0.08fair
198CBJJustin VienneauD000.00.4-0.29poor value
199PHXChad KolarikF610.00.5-0.30poor value
200CGYMatt SchneiderF000.00.5-0.33poor value
201SJSMike VernaceD2210.10.4-0.19fair
202CARRyan PottruffD000.00.4-0.29poor value
203ANAGabriel BouthilletteG00.00.3-0.23fair
204ATLMiikka TuomainenF000.00.5-0.33poor value
205LAKMike CurryF000.00.5-0.33poor value
206MINAnton KhudobinG2601.40.3+0.40great value
207BUFMark MancariF42130.30.5-0.09fair
208EDMStephane GouletF000.00.5-0.32poor value
209NSHStanislav BalanF000.00.5-0.32poor value
210NYIEmil AxelssonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
211STLDavid FredrikssonF000.00.5-0.32poor value
212MTLJon GleedD000.00.4-0.29poor value
213CGYJames SprattG00.00.3-0.23fair
214CHITroy BrouwerF8513636.20.5+0.75STEAL
215COLIan KeserichG00.00.3-0.23fair
216NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-LeblondF4130.20.5-0.14fair
217NJDTyler EckfordD710.00.4-0.25fair
218DALSergei KukushinF000.00.4-0.31poor value
219OTTJoe CooperF000.00.4-0.31poor value
220TORMaxim SemenovD000.00.4-0.29poor value
221LAKDaniel TaylorG40.00.3-0.20fair
222PITJordan MorrisonF000.00.4-0.30poor value
223CHIJared WalkerF000.00.4-0.30poor value
224BOSMatt HunwickD5351193.50.4+0.63STEAL
225SJSDavid MacDonaldD000.00.4-0.29poor value
226DETSteven CovingtonF000.00.4-0.30poor value
227NYIChris CampoliD4401464.30.4+0.68STEAL
228PITDavid BrownG00.00.3-0.23fair
230WSHJustin MrazekG00.00.3-0.23fair
231CBJBrian McGuirkF000.00.4-0.29poor value
232PHIMartin HouleG10.00.3-0.23fair
233CBJMatt GreerF000.00.4-0.29poor value
234SJSDerek MacIntyreG00.00.3-0.23fair
235CARJonas FiedlerF000.00.4-0.29poor value
236ANAMatt ChristieF000.00.4-0.28poor value
237ATLMitch CarefootF000.00.4-0.28poor value
238LAKYutaka FukufujiG40.00.3-0.23fair
239COLBrandon YipF174561.50.4+0.39great value
240PHXAaron GagnonF3850.30.4-0.06fair
241BUFMike CardD400.00.4-0.27poor value
242EDMTyler SpurgeonF000.00.4-0.28poor value
243NSHDenis KulyashD000.00.4-0.29poor value
244NYIJason PittonF000.00.4-0.27poor value
245TBLJustin KellerF000.00.4-0.27poor value
246MTLGregory StewartF2610.10.4-0.16fair
247NYRJonathan PaiementD000.00.4-0.29poor value
248DALLukas VomelaD000.00.4-0.29poor value
249COLJ.D. CorbinF000.00.4-0.27poor value
250NJDNathan PerkovichF000.00.4-0.27poor value
251OTTMatthew McIlvaneF000.00.4-0.26poor value
252TORJan SteberF000.00.4-0.26poor value
253PHITravis GawryletzD000.00.4-0.29poor value
254VANDavid SchulzD000.00.4-0.29poor value
255BOSAnton HedmanF000.00.3-0.26poor value
256CHIMatthew FordF000.00.3-0.26poor value
257DETGennady StolyarovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
258NSHPekka RinneG6835.60.3+0.77STEAL
259PITBrian IhnacakF000.00.3-0.26poor value
260CHIMarko AnttilaF000.00.3-0.26poor value
261PHXWilliam EngasserF000.00.3-0.26poor value
262MTLMark StreitD78643410.00.4+0.84STEAL
263WSHTravis MorinF1310.10.3-0.20fair
264LAKValtteri TenkanenF000.00.3-0.26poor value
265PHXDaniel WinnikF7982515.40.3+0.75STEAL
266NYRJakub PetruzalekF210.00.3-0.24fair
267FLASpencer DillonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
268CARMartin VagnerD000.00.4-0.29poor value
269ANAJanne PesonenF700.00.3-0.23fair
270ATLMatthew SiddallF000.00.3-0.26poor value
271CBJGrant ClitsomeD205712.40.4+0.52STEAL
272MINKyle WilsonF39130.30.3-0.02fair
273BUFDylan HunterF000.00.3-0.26poor value
274EDMBjorn BjurlingG00.00.3-0.23fair
275NSHCraig SwitzerD000.00.4-0.29poor value
276NYISylvain MichaudG00.00.3-0.23fair
277STLJonathan Michel BoutinF000.00.3-0.26poor value
278MTLAlex Dulac-LemelinD000.00.4-0.29poor value
279CGYAdam CracknellF210431.00.3+0.28great value
280DALMatt McKnightF000.00.3-0.26poor value
281COLStephen McClellanD000.00.4-0.29poor value
282NJDValeri KlimovD000.00.4-0.29poor value
283FLALuke BeaversonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
284OTTJohn WiknerF000.00.3-0.26poor value
285TORPierce NortonF000.00.3-0.26poor value
286PHITriston GrantF1110.10.3-0.20fair
287VANJannik HansenF6262565.10.3+0.74STEAL
288SJSBrian Mahoney-WilsonG00.00.3-0.23fair
289SJSChristian JensenD000.00.4-0.29poor value
290DETNils BackstromD000.00.4-0.29poor value
291PHIJohn CarterF000.00.3-0.26poor value

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77