IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2005 draft class230 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1PITSidney CrosbyF1420176114.011.6+0.09fair
2ANABobby RyanF8665698.29.9-0.09fair
3CARJack JohnsonD12283427.86.3+0.10fair
4MINBenoit PouliotF6252635.37.9-0.19fair
5MTLCarey PriceG7127.02.6+0.42great value
6CBJGilbert BruleF299952.36.1-0.40poor value
7CHIJack SkilleF368842.86.1-0.33poor value
8SJSDevin SetoguchiF5162615.34.1+0.12fair
9OTTBrian LeeD209361.65.1-0.45poor value
10VANLuc BourdonD3620.21.9-0.55BUST
11LAKAnze KopitarF1521131611.54.0+0.46great value
12NYRMarc StaalD11362345.81.9+0.45great value
13BUFMarek ZagrapanF000.04.0-0.80BUST
14WSHSasha PokulokD000.01.9-0.65BUST
15NYIRyan O'MarraF3370.24.0-0.72BUST
16ATLAlex BourretF000.04.0-0.80BUST
17PHXMartin HanzalF6733386.53.9+0.22fair
18NSHRyan ParentD10670.61.9-0.37poor value
19DETJakub KindlD331743.01.9+0.18fair
20FLAKenndal McArdleF4230.23.8-0.71BUST
21TORTuukka RaskG5645.51.0+0.60STEAL
22BOSMatt LashoffD74160.61.9-0.37poor value
23NJDNiclas BergforsF173831.63.8-0.34poor value
24STLT.J. OshieF10106957.23.7+0.29great value
25EDMAndrew CoglianoF12944647.33.6+0.32great value
26CGYMatt PelechD000.01.9-0.65BUST
27WSHJoe FinleyD2110.21.9-0.56BUST
28DALMatt NiskanenD9493567.91.9+0.55STEAL
29PHISteve DownieF4341964.02.9+0.13fair
30TBLVladimir MihalikD1530.11.9-0.59BUST
31ANABrendan MikkelsonD131100.81.9-0.30poor value
32FLATyler PlanteG00.01.0-0.50poor value
33DALJames NealF8695597.82.0+0.54STEAL
34COLRyan StoaF4070.31.8-0.50poor value
35SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicD13233797.91.7+0.59STEAL
36EDMTaylor ChorneyD166220.91.6-0.19fair
37STLScott JacksonD100.01.6-0.61BUST
38NJDJeff FrazeeG10.01.0-0.50poor value
39BOSPetr KalusF1150.11.5-0.55BUST
40NYRMichael SauerD98180.71.6-0.25fair
41ATLOndrej PavelecG3983.91.0+0.49great value
42DETJustin AbdelkaderF7392524.81.5+0.45great value
43CHIMike BlundenF127130.71.5-0.24fair
44COLPaul StastnyF11458229.51.5+0.66STEAL
45MTLGuillaume LatendresseF3411473.21.5+0.29great value
46NYIDustin KohnD2240.21.5-0.50BUST
47COLTom FritscheF000.01.5-0.60BUST
48BUFPhilip GogullaF000.01.5-0.60BUST
49ATLChad DennyD000.01.5-0.60BUST
50LAKDany RoussinF000.01.5-0.60BUST
51VANMason RaymondF5462515.41.5+0.49great value
52COLChris DurandF000.01.5-0.60BUST
53ATLAndrew KozekF000.01.5-0.60BUST
54CHIDan BertramF000.01.5-0.60BUST
55CBJAdam McQuaidD512733.11.5+0.29great value
56NYRMarc-Andre ClicheF151140.91.5-0.20fair
57MINMatt KassianF7650.51.5-0.35poor value
58CARNathan HagemoD000.01.5-0.60BUST
59PHXPier-Olivier PelletierG00.01.0-0.50poor value
60LAKT.J. FastD000.01.5-0.60BUST
61PITMichael GergenF000.01.5-0.60BUST
62PITKris LetangD12358069.21.4+0.67STEAL
63ANAJason BaileyF000.01.5-0.60BUST
64CARJoe BarnesF000.01.5-0.60BUST
65MINKristofer WestblomG00.01.0-0.50poor value
66NYRBrodie DupontF100.01.5-0.59BUST
67CBJKris RussellD9122546.11.2+0.58STEAL
68CHIEvan BropheyF400.01.4-0.57BUST
69CGYGord BaldwinD000.01.2-0.54BUST
70OTTVitaly AnikeyenkoD000.01.1-0.53BUST
71DALRich CluneF139221.11.3-0.06fair
72LAKJonathan QuickG8296.01.0+0.63STEAL
73TBLRadek SmolenakF710.01.2-0.52BUST
74CGYDan RyderF000.01.2-0.55BUST
75DALPerttu LindgrenF100.01.2-0.54BUST
76NYIShea GuthrieF000.01.2-0.54BUST
77NYRDalyn FlattD000.01.0-0.50poor value
78NSHTeemu LaaksoD1700.11.0-0.43poor value
79NSHCody FransonD5502126.11.0+0.64STEAL
80DETChristofer LofbergF000.01.1-0.52BUST
81EDMDanny SyvretD5970.40.9-0.24fair
82TORPhil OreskovicD1020.10.9-0.42poor value
83BOSMikko LehtonenF200.01.0-0.50poor value
84NJDMark FraserD219221.60.9+0.20fair
85STLBen BishopG4133.61.0+0.47great value
86EDMRobby DeeF000.01.0-0.49poor value
87BUFMarc-Andre GragnaniD78180.70.9-0.08fair
88COLT.J. HensickF112380.90.9-0.01fair
89TBLChris LawrenceF000.00.9-0.47poor value
90FLADan CollinsF000.00.9-0.47poor value
91PHIOskars BartulisD6690.40.8-0.17fair
92TBLMarek BartanusF000.00.9-0.46poor value
93FLAOlivier LegaultF000.00.8-0.46poor value
94CARJakub VojtaD000.00.8-0.46poor value
95OTTCody BassF7550.40.8-0.19fair
96BUFChris ButlerD407863.40.8+0.49great value
97EDMChris VandeVeldeF278481.90.8+0.28great value
98OTTIlya ZubovF1120.10.8-0.39poor value
99NJDPatrick DavisF910.10.8-0.41poor value
100BOSJonathan SigaletD100.00.8-0.45poor value
101CBJJared BollF579663.50.8+0.52STEAL
102TBLBlair JonesF132170.90.8+0.03fair
103DETMattias RitolaF4390.30.8-0.23fair
104FLAMatt DuffyD000.00.8-0.45poor value
105PHXKeith YandleD110961910.20.8+0.78STEAL
106BOSVladimir SobotkaF5481713.30.8+0.51STEAL
107NYRTom PyattF4451012.60.8+0.42great value
108CHINiklas HjalmarssonD8211725.40.8+0.64STEAL
109WSHAndrew ThomasD000.00.8-0.45poor value
110MINKyle BaileyF000.00.7-0.42poor value
111CGYJ.D. WattF000.00.7-0.42poor value
112SJSAlex StalockG1790.80.6+0.10fair
113CHINathan DavisF000.00.7-0.42poor value
114VANAlexandre VincentG00.00.5-0.34poor value
115OTTJanne KolehmainenF000.00.7-0.41poor value
116ATLJordan Lavallee-SmothermanF420.00.7-0.38poor value
117CHIDenis IstominF000.00.7-0.41poor value
118WSHPatrick McNeillD000.00.8-0.43poor value
119PHIJeremy DuchesneG10.00.4-0.30poor value
120EDMViacheslav TrukhnoF000.00.7-0.40poor value
121MTLJuraj MikusF000.00.7-0.40poor value
122MINMorten MadsenF000.00.7-0.40poor value
123CAROndrej OtcenasF000.00.7-0.39poor value
124COLRay MaciasD810.10.7-0.38poor value
125PITTommi LeinonenD000.00.7-0.42poor value
126PITTim CrowderF000.00.6-0.39poor value
127ANABobby BoltF000.00.6-0.39poor value
128CGYKevin LalandeG00.00.3-0.23fair
129MINAnthony AielloD000.00.7-0.41poor value
130MTLMathieu AubinF000.00.6-0.38poor value
131CBJTomas PopperleG20.00.3-0.23fair
132DETDarren HelmF8232664.10.6+0.62STEAL
133TBLStanislav LascekF000.00.6-0.37poor value
134CHIBrennan TurnerD000.00.7-0.40poor value
135ATLTomas PospisilF000.00.6-0.37poor value
136OTTTomas KudelkaD000.00.7-0.40poor value
137DETJohan RynoF000.00.6-0.36poor value
138VANMatt ButcherF000.00.6-0.36poor value
139LAKPatrik HersleyD000.00.6-0.39poor value
140SJSTaylor DakersG00.00.3-0.23fair
141ANABrian SalcidoD210.00.6-0.37poor value
142BUFNathan GerbeF4351513.50.5+0.58STEAL
143WSHDaren MachesneyG00.00.3-0.23fair
144NYIMasi MarjamakiF100.00.5-0.34poor value
145CARTimothy KunesD000.00.6-0.38poor value
146DALTom WandellF229431.60.5+0.34great value
147NYRTrevor KoverkoD000.00.6-0.38poor value
148PHXAnton KrysanovF000.00.5-0.34poor value
149SJSDerek JoslinD116160.80.6+0.09fair
150NSHCal O'ReillyF145491.20.5+0.25great value
151DETJeff MayD000.00.6-0.37poor value
152PHIJosh BeaulieuF000.00.5-0.33poor value
153TORAlex BerryF000.00.5-0.33poor value
154BOSWacey RabbitF000.00.5-0.33poor value
155NJDMark FayneD389653.00.6+0.54STEAL
156STLRyan ReavesF9621402.70.5+0.53STEAL
157EDMFredrik PetterssonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
158CGYMatt KeetleyG10.00.3-0.23fair
159CARRisto KorhonenD000.00.5-0.35poor value
160DALMatt WatkinsF100.00.5-0.33poor value
161FLABrian FosterG10.00.3-0.23fair
162SJSPaul FentonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
163TBLMarek KvapilF000.00.5-0.33poor value
164FLARoman DerlyukD000.00.5-0.35poor value
165TBLKevin BeechG00.00.3-0.23fair
166COLJason LynchD000.00.5-0.34poor value
167CHIJoe FallonG00.00.3-0.23fair
168COLJustin MercierF920.10.5-0.28poor value
169STLMike GauthierD000.00.5-0.34poor value
170NJDSean ZimmermanD000.00.5-0.33poor value
171STLNick DrazenovicF1200.10.5-0.26poor value
172BOSLukas VantuchF000.00.5-0.33poor value
173TORJohan DahlbergF000.00.5-0.33poor value
174PHIJohn FlattersD000.00.5-0.33poor value
175DETJuho MielonenD000.00.5-0.33poor value
176NSHRyan MakiF000.00.5-0.33poor value
177CBJDerek ReinhartD000.00.5-0.32poor value
178NYRGreg BellerF000.00.5-0.33poor value
179CGYBrett SutterF60100.40.5-0.05fair
180NYITyrell MasonD000.00.5-0.32poor value
181WSHTim KennedyF162391.20.5+0.26great value
182BUFAdam DennisG00.00.3-0.23fair
183SJSWilliam ColbertD000.00.5-0.31poor value
184LAKRyan McGinnisD000.00.4-0.31poor value
185VANKris FredheimD300.00.4-0.29poor value
186OTTDimitri MegalinskyD000.00.4-0.30poor value
187ATLAndrey ZubarevD410.00.4-0.27poor value
188CHIJoe CharleboisD000.00.4-0.30poor value
189CBJKirill StarkovF000.00.5-0.33poor value
190MTLMatt D'AgostiniF3241072.70.5+0.53STEAL
191BUFVjateslav BuravchikovD000.00.4-0.30poor value
192CARNicolas BlanchardF900.10.5-0.27poor value
193SJSTony LuciaF000.00.5-0.33poor value
194PITJean-Philippe PaquetD000.00.4-0.29poor value
195PITJoe VitaleF234441.70.5+0.38great value
196NYINicholas TuzzolinoD000.00.4-0.29poor value
197ANAJean-Philippe LevasseurG00.00.3-0.23fair
198CARKyle LawsonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
199MINRiley EmmersonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
200MTLSergei KostitsynF3531763.60.5+0.61STEAL
201CBJTrevor HendrikxD000.00.4-0.29poor value
202CHIDavid KuchejdaF000.00.5-0.33poor value
203CHIAdam HobsonF000.00.5-0.33poor value
204OTTColin GreeningF2861022.70.5+0.52STEAL
205VANMario BliznakF610.00.5-0.29poor value
206LAKJosh MeyersD000.00.4-0.29poor value
207ATLMyles StoeszD000.00.4-0.29poor value
208BUFMatt GenerousD000.00.4-0.29poor value
209WSHViktor DovganD000.00.4-0.29poor value
210NYILuciano AquinoF000.00.5-0.32poor value
211NYRRyan RussellF4120.20.5-0.15fair
212PHXPat BrosnihanF000.00.5-0.32poor value
213NSHScott ToddD000.00.4-0.29poor value
214DETBretton StamlerD000.00.4-0.29poor value
215PHIMatt ClacksonF000.00.5-0.31poor value
216TORAnton StralmanD9382936.30.4+0.76STEAL
217BOSBrock BradfordF000.00.5-0.31poor value
218NJDAlexander SundstromF000.00.4-0.31poor value
219STLNikolai LemtyugovF000.00.4-0.31poor value
220EDMMatthew GlasserF000.00.4-0.31poor value
221CGYMyles RumseyD000.00.4-0.29poor value
222COLKyle CumiskeyD139351.20.4+0.30great value
223DALPat McGannG00.00.3-0.23fair
224FLAZach BearsonF000.00.4-0.30poor value
225TBLJohn WessbeckerD000.00.4-0.29poor value
226LAKJohn SeymourF000.00.4-0.30poor value
227BUFAndrew OrpikD000.00.4-0.29poor value
228TORChad RauF920.10.4-0.24fair
229MTLPhillipe PaquetD000.00.4-0.29poor value
230NSHPatric HornqvistF9015436.50.4+0.77STEAL

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77