NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2006 draft class212 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	STL	Erik Johnson	D	1023	348	7.2	8.5	-0.08	fair
2	PIT	Jordan Staal	F	1403	747	9.1	9.9	-0.04	fair
3	CHI	Jonathan Toews	F	1149	912	10.8	8.5	+0.11	fair
4	WSH	Nicklas Backstrom	F	1105	1033	12.1	7.9	+0.20	fair
5	BOS	Phil Kessel	F	1286	992	12.1	7.1	+0.25	fair
6	CBJ	Derick Brassard	F	1013	545	8.0	6.1	+0.12	fair
7	NYI	Kyle Okposo	F	1051	614	8.0	6.1	+0.13	fair
8	PHX	Peter Mueller	F	297	160	3.2	4.1	-0.11	fair
9	MIN	James Sheppard	F	394	91	2.9	4.1	-0.15	fair
10	FLA	Michael Frolik	F	858	384	7.0	4.0	+0.25	fair
11	LAK	Jonathan Bernier	G	404	—	3.1	1.0	+0.42	great value
12	ATL	Bryan Little	F	843	521	8.6	4.0	+0.34	great value
13	TOR	Jiri Tlusty	F	446	177	4.3	4.0	+0.03	fair
14	VAN	Michael Grabner	F	640	276	5.4	4.0	+0.13	fair
15	TBL	Riku Helenius	G	1	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
16	SJS	Ty Wishart	D	26	6	0.2	1.9	-0.54	BUST
17	LAK	Trevor Lewis	F	1034	237	4.4	3.9	+0.05	fair
18	COL	Chris Stewart	F	668	322	6.7	3.8	+0.25	fair
19	ANA	Mark Mitera	D	0	0	0.0	1.9	-0.65	BUST
20	MTL	David Fischer	D	0	0	0.0	1.9	-0.65	BUST
21	NYR	Bobby Sanguinetti	D	45	6	0.5	1.9	-0.41	poor value
22	PHI	Claude Giroux	F	1345	1165	10.6	3.8	+0.44	great value
23	WSH	Semyon Varlamov	G	621	—	4.8	1.0	+0.56	STEAL
24	BUF	Dennis Persson	D	0	0	0.0	1.9	-0.65	BUST
25	STL	Patrik Berglund	F	717	326	6.8	3.6	+0.29	great value
26	CGY	Leland Irving	G	13	—	0.1	1.0	-0.41	poor value
27	DAL	Ivan Vishnevskiy	D	5	2	0.1	1.9	-0.63	BUST
28	OTT	Nick Foligno	F	1287	612	7.9	3.2	+0.39	great value
29	PHX	Chris Summers	D	70	9	0.5	1.9	-0.41	poor value
30	NJD	Matthew Corrente	D	34	6	0.3	1.9	-0.52	BUST
31	STL	Tomas Kana	F	6	2	0.0	2.5	-0.69	BUST
32	PIT	Carl Sneep	D	1	1	0.0	1.9	-0.64	BUST
33	CHI	Igor Makarov	F	0	0	0.0	2.0	-0.67	BUST
34	WSH	Michal Neuvirth	G	257	—	2.7	1.0	+0.37	great value
35	WSH	Francois Bouchard	F	0	0	0.0	1.6	-0.61	BUST
36	SJS	Jamie McGinn	F	617	220	5.3	1.5	+0.48	great value
37	BOS	Yury Alexandrov	D	0	0	0.0	1.6	-0.62	BUST
38	ANA	Bryce Swan	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
39	PHI	Andreas Nodl	F	183	36	1.3	1.5	-0.07	fair
40	MIN	Ondrej Fiala	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
41	DET	Cory Emmerton	F	139	21	1.1	1.5	-0.12	fair
42	PHI	Michael Ratchuk	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.61	BUST
43	ATL	Riley Holzapfel	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
44	TOR	Nikolay Kulemin	F	669	274	6.2	1.5	+0.54	STEAL
45	EDM	Jeff Petry	D	1048	394	5.3	1.5	+0.49	great value
46	BUF	Jhonas Enroth	G	153	—	1.5	1.0	+0.14	fair
47	DET	Shawn Matthias	F	551	174	4.7	1.5	+0.44	great value
48	LAK	Joe Ryan	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
49	MTL	Ben Maxwell	F	47	8	0.3	1.5	-0.43	poor value
50	BOS	Milan Lucic	F	1177	586	8.9	1.5	+0.65	STEAL
51	COL	Nigel Williams	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
52	WSH	Keith Seabrook	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
53	MTL	Mathieu Carle	D	3	0	0.0	1.5	-0.59	BUST
54	NYR	Artem Anisimov	F	771	376	6.3	1.5	+0.54	STEAL
55	PHI	Denis Bodrov	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
56	NSH	Blake Geoffrion	F	55	13	0.4	1.5	-0.39	poor value
57	BUF	Mike Weber	D	351	53	2.7	1.5	+0.23	fair
58	NJD	Alexander Vasyunov	F	18	5	0.1	1.5	-0.52	BUST
59	COL	Codey Burki	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
60	NYI	Jesse Joensuu	F	129	24	0.9	1.5	-0.18	fair
61	CHI	Simon Danis-Pepin	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.59	BUST
62	DET	Dick Axelsson	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
63	CAR	Jamie McBain	D	348	110	3.6	1.4	+0.37	great value
64	STL	Jonas Junland	D	4	2	0.0	1.3	-0.54	BUST
65	PIT	Brian Strait	D	187	29	1.4	1.3	+0.03	fair
66	MTL	Ryan White	F	313	61	2.2	1.5	+0.16	fair
67	NJD	Kirill Tulupov	D	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
68	OTT	Eric Gryba	D	289	43	2.2	1.2	+0.22	fair
69	CBJ	Steve Mason	G	476	—	5.1	1.0	+0.58	STEAL
70	NYI	Robin Figren	F	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
71	BOS	Brad Marchand	F	1152	1034	7.8	1.3	+0.64	STEAL
72	MIN	Cal Clutterbuck	F	1064	293	5.7	1.3	+0.55	STEAL
73	FLA	Brady Calla	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
74	LAK	Jeff Zatkoff	G	48	—	0.4	1.0	-0.25	poor value
75	EDM	Theo Peckham	D	160	17	1.0	1.0	+0.01	fair
76	CHI	Tony Lagerstrom	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
77	NJD	Vladimir Zharkov	F	82	14	0.5	1.1	-0.23	fair
78	TBL	Kevin Quick	D	6	1	0.0	1.0	-0.46	poor value
79	PHI	Jon Matsumoto	F	14	2	0.1	1.1	-0.46	poor value
80	ATL	Michael Forney	F	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.52	BUST
81	COL	Mike Carman	F	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.51	BUST
82	VAN	Daniel Rahimi	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
83	ANA	John De Gray	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
84	NYR	Ryan Hillier	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
85	CBJ	Tom Sestito	F	154	21	1.1	1.0	+0.03	fair
86	LAK	Bud Holloway	F	1	0	0.0	1.0	-0.48	poor value
87	CGY	John Armstrong	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
88	PHX	Jonas Ahnelov	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.46	poor value
89	CGY	Aaron Marvin	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
90	DAL	Aaron Snow	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
91	OTT	Kaspars Daugavins	F	91	15	0.7	0.9	-0.07	fair
92	DET	Daniel Larsson	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
93	CAR	Harrison Reed	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
94	STL	Ryan Turek	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
95	CHI	Ben Shutron	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
96	CHI	Joe Palmer	G	0	—	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
97	WSH	Oskar Osala	F	3	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
98	SJS	James Delory	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
99	TOR	James Reimer	G	539	—	3.6	0.8	+0.52	STEAL
100	NYI	Rhett Rakhshani	F	7	0	0.0	0.8	-0.42	poor value
101	PHI	Joonas Lehtivuori	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
102	MIN	Kyle Medvec	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
103	FLA	Michael Caruso	D	2	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
104	NYR	David Kveton	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
105	NSH	Niko Snellman	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
106	STL	Reto Berra	G	76	—	0.7	0.7	+0.03	fair
107	NJD	T.J. Miller	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
108	NYI	Jase Weslosky	G	0	—	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
109	PHI	Jakub Kovar	G	0	—	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
110	COL	Kevin Montgomery	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
111	TOR	Korbinian Holzer	D	206	27	1.0	0.8	+0.08	fair
112	ANA	Matt Beleskey	F	477	158	4.1	0.7	+0.58	STEAL
113	CBJ	Ben Wright	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
114	LAK	Niclas Andersen	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
115	NYI	Tomas Marcinko	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
116	FLA	Derrick Lapoint	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
117	BUF	Felix Schutz	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
118	CGY	Hugo Carpentier	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
119	NYI	Doug Rogers	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
120	DAL	Richard Bachman	G	49	—	0.5	0.4	+0.02	fair
121	OTT	Pierre-Luc Lessard	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
122	WSH	Luke Lynes	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
123	CAR	Bobby Hughes	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.39	poor value
124	STL	Andy Sackrison	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
125	PIT	Chad Johnson	G	192	—	1.9	0.3	+0.48	great value
126	NYI	Shane Sims	D	1	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
127	WSH	Maxime Lacroix	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
128	BOS	Andrew Bodnarchuk	D	42	4	0.3	0.7	-0.23	fair
129	CBJ	Robert Nyholm	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
130	PHX	Brett Bennett	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
131	PHX	Martin Latal	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
132	MIN	Niko Hovinen	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
133	EDM	Bryan Pitton	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
134	LAK	David Meckler	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
135	ATL	Alex Kangas	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
136	CBJ	Nick Sucharski	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
137	NYR	Tomas Zaborsky	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
138	DAL	David McIntyre	F	7	2	0.1	0.6	-0.31	poor value
139	MTL	Pavel Valentenko	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
140	EDM	Cody Wild	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
141	NYI	Kim Johansson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
142	CBJ	Maxime Frechette	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
143	SJS	Ashton Rome	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
144	LAK	Martin Nolet	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
145	PHI	Jonathan Rheault	F	5	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
146	NSH	Mark Dekanich	G	1	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
147	BUF	Alex Biega	D	243	42	1.0	0.6	+0.14	fair
148	NJD	Olivier Magnan	D	18	0	0.1	0.6	-0.30	poor value
149	CGY	Juuso Puustinen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
150	DAL	Max Warn	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
151	OTT	Ryan Daniels	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
153	CAR	Stefan Chaput	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
154	STL	Matthew McCollem	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
155	FLA	Peter Aston	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
156	CHI	Jan-Mikael Juutilainen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
157	WSH	Brent Gwidt	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
158	BOS	Levi Nelson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
159	CBJ	Jesse Dudas	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
160	NYI	Andrew MacDonald	D	586	161	5.2	0.5	+0.69	STEAL
161	TOR	Viktor Stalberg	F	488	168	4.3	0.5	+0.66	STEAL
162	MIN	Julian Walker	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
163	VAN	Sergei Shirokov	F	8	1	0.0	0.5	-0.29	poor value
164	LAK	Constantin Braun	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
165	ATL	Jonas Enlund	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
166	TOR	Tyler Ruegsegger	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
167	VAN	Juraj Simek	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
168	TBL	Dane Crowley	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
169	CHI	Chris Auger	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
170	EDM	Alexander Bumagin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
171	NYI	Brian Day	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
172	ANA	Petteri Wirtanen	F	3	1	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
173	NYI	Stefan Ridderwall	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
174	NYR	Eric Hunter	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
175	PHI	Michael Dupont	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
176	NSH	Ryan Flynn	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
177	WSH	Mathieu Perreault	F	708	352	5.4	0.5	+0.71	STEAL
178	NJD	Tony Romano	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
179	CGY	Jordan Fulton	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
180	TOR	Leo Komarov	F	491	170	3.0	0.5	+0.56	STEAL
181	OTT	Kevin Koopman	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
182	DET	Jan Mursak	F	46	4	0.3	0.5	-0.13	fair
183	CAR	Nick Dodge	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
184	STL	Alexander Hellstrom	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
185	PIT	Timo Seppanen	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
186	CHI	Peter LeBlanc	F	1	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
187	CGY	Devin Didiomete	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
188	PHX	Chris Frank	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
189	CBJ	Derek Dorsett	F	515	127	3.8	0.5	+0.63	STEAL
190	NYI	Troy Mattila	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
191	DET	Nick Oslund	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
192	MIN	Chris Hickey	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
193	FLA	Marc Cheverie	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
194	CBJ	Matt Marquardt	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
195	ATL	Jesse Martin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
196	PHX	Benn Ferriero	F	98	23	0.7	0.5	+0.10	fair
197	VAN	Evan Fuller	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
198	TBL	Denis Kazionov	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
199	MTL	Cameron Cepek	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
200	ATL	Arturs Kulda	D	15	2	0.1	0.4	-0.20	fair
201	COL	Billy Sauer	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
202	SJS	John McCarthy	F	88	6	0.5	0.5	-0.01	fair
203	SJS	Jay Barriball	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
204	NYR	Lukas Zeliska	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
205	PHI	Andrei Popov	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
206	NSH	Viktor Sjodin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
207	BUF	Benjamin Breault	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
208	NJD	Kyle Henegan	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
209	CGY	Per Jonsson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
210	ATL	Will O'Neill	D	1	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
211	OTT	Erik Condra	F	372	99	3.0	0.5	+0.56	STEAL
212	DET	Logan Pyett	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
213	CAR	Justin Krueger	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.81
4	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.81
5	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
8	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.79
9	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
10	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.78
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.78
12	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
13	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.77
16	2003 · #148	Lee StempniakF · STL	+0.77
17	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.77
18	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
19	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.77
20	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
21	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
22	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
23	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.76
24	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
25	2008 · #186	Jason DemersD · SJS	+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.80
4	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.80
5	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.80
6	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.80
7	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.80
8	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.80
9	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.80
10	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.80
11	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.80
12	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.79
13	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.79
14	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.79
15	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.79
16	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.79
17	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.79
18	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.79
19	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.79
20	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.79
21	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.78
22	2007 · #25	Patrick WhiteF · VAN	-0.78
23	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.77
24	2002 · #27	Mike MorrisF · SJS	-0.77
25	2009 · #27	Philippe ParadisF · CAR	-0.77