NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2008 draft class210 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	TBL	Steven Stamkos	F	1246	1256	12.4	11.6	+0.03	fair
2	LAK	Drew Doughty	D	1279	709	12.3	8.5	+0.17	fair
3	ATL	Zach Bogosian	D	970	249	6.3	6.3	+0.00	fair
4	STL	Alex Pietrangelo	D	1087	637	10.9	6.3	+0.25	great value
5	TOR	Luke Schenn	D	1122	212	6.2	6.3	-0.01	fair
6	CBJ	Nikita Filatov	F	53	14	0.4	6.1	-0.76	BUST
7	NSH	Colin Wilson	F	632	286	6.0	6.1	-0.01	fair
8	PHX	Mikkel Boedker	F	709	327	6.9	4.1	+0.24	fair
9	NYI	Josh Bailey	F	1057	580	9.1	4.1	+0.35	great value
10	VAN	Cody Hodgson	F	328	142	3.4	4.0	-0.08	fair
11	CHI	Kyle Beach	F	0	0	0.0	4.0	-0.80	BUST
12	BUF	Tyler Myers	D	1139	406	7.9	1.9	+0.56	STEAL
13	LAK	Colten Teubert	D	24	1	0.1	1.9	-0.58	BUST
14	CAR	Zach Boychuk	F	127	30	1.0	4.0	-0.51	BUST
15	OTT	Erik Karlsson	D	1159	936	12.8	1.9	+0.69	STEAL
16	BOS	Joe Colborne	F	295	114	2.6	4.0	-0.19	fair
17	ANA	Jake Gardiner	D	645	277	7.1	1.9	+0.52	STEAL
18	NSH	Chet Pickard	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
19	PHI	Luca Sbisa	D	549	113	4.6	1.9	+0.36	great value
20	NYR	Michael Del Zotto	D	736	262	7.1	1.9	+0.52	STEAL
21	WSH	Anton Gustafsson	F	0	0	0.0	3.8	-0.79	BUST
22	EDM	Jordan Eberle	F	1140	783	9.0	3.8	+0.37	great value
23	MIN	Tyler Cuma	D	1	0	0.0	1.9	-0.65	BUST
24	NJD	Mattias Tedenby	F	120	30	0.9	3.7	-0.50	BUST
25	CGY	Greg Nemisz	F	15	1	0.1	3.6	-0.75	BUST
26	BUF	Tyler Ennis	F	700	346	6.4	3.4	+0.28	great value
27	WSH	John Carlson	D	1159	785	11.2	1.9	+0.66	STEAL
28	PHX	Viktor Tikhonov	F	111	22	0.7	3.2	-0.50	poor value
29	ATL	Daultan Leveille	F	0	0	0.0	2.9	-0.75	BUST
30	DET	Tom McCollum	G	3	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
31	FLA	Jacob Markstrom	G	578	—	3.0	1.0	+0.40	great value
32	LAK	Slava Voynov	D	190	81	2.6	1.9	+0.12	fair
33	STL	Philip McRae	F	15	3	0.1	2.0	-0.61	BUST
34	STL	Jake Allen	G	497	—	3.5	1.0	+0.45	great value
35	ANA	Nicolas Deschamps	F	3	0	0.0	1.6	-0.60	BUST
36	NYI	Corey Trivino	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
37	CBJ	Cody Goloubef	D	160	25	1.2	1.6	-0.10	fair
38	NSH	Roman Josi	D	1030	779	9.6	1.6	+0.66	STEAL
39	ANA	Eric O'Dell	F	41	8	0.3	1.5	-0.44	poor value
40	NYI	Aaron Ness	D	72	7	0.5	1.6	-0.36	poor value
41	VAN	Yann Sauve	D	8	0	0.0	1.5	-0.58	BUST
42	OTT	Patrick Wiercioch	D	268	74	2.7	1.5	+0.23	fair
43	ANA	Justin Schultz	D	745	324	6.0	1.5	+0.52	STEAL
44	BUF	Luke Adam	F	90	26	0.7	1.5	-0.25	poor value
45	CAR	Zac Dalpe	F	168	32	1.0	1.5	-0.15	fair
46	FLA	Colby Robak	D	47	4	0.4	1.5	-0.40	poor value
47	BOS	Max Sauve	F	1	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
48	CGY	Mitch Wahl	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
49	PHX	Jared Staal	F	2	0	0.0	1.5	-0.59	BUST
50	COL	Cameron Gaunce	D	37	9	0.3	1.5	-0.42	poor value
51	NYR	Derek Stepan	F	890	515	8.7	1.5	+0.64	STEAL
52	NJD	Brandon Burlon	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
53	NYI	Travis Hamonic	D	926	244	6.2	1.5	+0.54	STEAL
54	NJD	Patrice Cormier	F	52	5	0.3	1.5	-0.42	poor value
55	MIN	Marco Scandella	D	784	170	4.9	1.5	+0.46	great value
56	MTL	Danny Kristo	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
57	WSH	Eric Mestery	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
58	WSH	Dmitri Kugryshev	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
59	DAL	Tyler Beskorowany	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
60	TOR	Jimmy Hayes	F	334	109	2.7	1.5	+0.23	fair
61	COL	Peter Delmas	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
62	SJS	Justin Daniels	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
63	LAK	Robert Czarnik	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
64	ATL	Danick Paquette	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
65	STL	Jori Lehtera	F	307	111	2.6	1.5	+0.21	fair
66	NYI	David Toews	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
67	PHI	Marc-Andre Bourdon	D	45	7	0.3	1.2	-0.35	poor value
68	CHI	Shawn Lalonde	D	1	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
69	PHX	Michael Stone	D	552	145	4.4	1.2	+0.49	great value
70	STL	James Livingston	F	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
71	ANA	Josh Brittain	F	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
72	NYI	Jyri Niemi	D	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.51	BUST
73	NYI	Kirill Petrov	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
74	LAK	Andrew Campbell	D	42	2	0.2	1.0	-0.35	poor value
75	NYR	Evgeny Grachev	F	34	4	0.2	1.2	-0.41	poor value
76	PHX	Mathieu Brodeur	D	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
77	BOS	Michael Hutchinson	G	154	—	1.1	1.0	+0.04	fair
78	CGY	Lance Bouma	F	357	76	2.5	1.1	+0.29	great value
79	OTT	Zack Smith	F	662	204	5.5	1.1	+0.58	STEAL
80	FLA	Adam Comrie	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.49	poor value
81	BUF	Corey Fienhage	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
82	NJD	Adam Henrique	F	1058	572	7.2	1.0	+0.67	STEAL
83	ANA	Marco Cousineau	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
84	PHI	Jacob Deserres	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
85	ANA	Brandon McMillan	F	171	36	1.2	1.0	+0.07	fair
86	MTL	Steve Quailer	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
87	STL	Ian Schultz	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
88	LAK	Geordie Wudrick	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
89	DAL	Scott Winkler	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
90	NYR	Tomas Kundratek	D	30	7	0.4	0.8	-0.20	fair
91	DET	Max Nicastro	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
92	SJS	Samuel Groulx	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
93	WSH	Braden Holtby	G	513	—	6.6	0.9	+0.66	STEAL
94	ATL	Vinny Saponari	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
95	STL	David Warsofsky	D	55	11	0.4	0.8	-0.18	fair
96	NYI	Matt Donovan	D	69	20	0.6	0.8	-0.08	fair
97	BOS	Jamie Arniel	F	1	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
98	TOR	Mikhail Stefanovich	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
99	PHX	Colin Long	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
100	FLA	AJ Jenks	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
101	BUF	Justin Jokinen	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
102	NYI	David Ullstrom	F	49	13	0.5	0.8	-0.14	fair
103	EDM	Johan Motin	D	1	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
104	BUF	Jordon Southorn	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
105	CAR	Michal Jordan	D	79	7	0.5	0.8	-0.14	fair
106	SJS	Harri Sateri	G	15	—	0.1	0.7	-0.34	poor value
107	CBJ	Steven Delisle	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
108	CGY	Nicholas Larson	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.43	poor value
109	OTT	Andre Petersson	F	1	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
110	COL	Kelsey Tessier	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
111	NYR	Dale Weise	F	513	125	3.9	0.7	+0.56	STEAL
112	NJD	Matt Delahey	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
113	ANA	Ryan Hegarty	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
114	CGY	TJ Brodie	D	962	358	7.3	0.8	+0.72	STEAL
115	MIN	Sean Lorenz	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
116	MTL	Jason Missiaen	G	0	—	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
117	TBL	James Wright	F	146	12	1.0	0.7	+0.11	fair
118	CBJ	Drew Olson	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
119	OTT	Derek Grant	F	427	132	2.0	0.7	+0.36	great value
120	PIT	Nathan Moon	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
121	DET	Gustav Nyquist	F	914	543	6.3	0.7	+0.71	STEAL
122	TBL	Dustin Tokarski	G	86	—	0.2	0.4	-0.09	fair
123	LAK	Andrei Loktionov	F	155	48	1.4	0.7	+0.24	fair
124	ATL	Nicklas Lasu	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
125	STL	Kristoffer Berglund	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
126	NYI	Kevin Poulin	G	50	—	0.5	0.3	+0.08	fair
127	CBJ	Matt Calvert	F	566	203	4.9	0.6	+0.65	STEAL
128	TOR	Greg Pateryn	D	290	44	1.9	0.7	+0.33	great value
129	TOR	Joel Champagne	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
130	TOR	Jerome Flaake	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
131	VAN	Prab Rai	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
133	EDM	Philippe Cornet	F	2	1	0.0	0.6	-0.35	poor value
134	BUF	Jacob Lagace	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
135	CBJ	Tomas Kubalik	F	12	4	0.1	0.6	-0.29	poor value
136	NSH	Taylor Stefishen	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
137	CBJ	Brent Regner	D	7	0	0.0	0.7	-0.37	poor value
138	MTL	Maxim Trunev	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
139	OTT	Mark Borowiecki	D	458	56	2.6	0.6	+0.46	great value
140	COL	Mark Olver	F	74	22	0.7	0.5	+0.08	fair
141	NYR	Chris Doyle	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
142	NJD	Kory Nagy	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
143	ANA	Stefan Warg	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
144	WSH	Joel Broda	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
145	MIN	Eero Elo	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
146	SJS	Julien Demers	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
147	TBL	Kyle De Coste	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
148	NYI	Matt Martin	F	987	178	4.9	0.5	+0.69	STEAL
149	DAL	Philip Larsen	D	151	37	1.5	0.6	+0.28	great value
150	PIT	Alexander Pechurskiy	G	1	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
151	DET	Julien Cayer	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
152	TBL	Mark Barberio	D	272	56	2.2	0.6	+0.42	great value
153	LAK	Justin Azevedo	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
154	ATL	Christopher Carrozzi	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
155	STL	Anthony Nigro	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
156	NYI	Jared Spurgeon	D	1012	438	7.6	0.6	+0.77	STEAL
157	CBJ	Cam Atkinson	F	809	489	6.6	0.5	+0.75	STEAL
158	TOR	Grant Rollheiser	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
159	PHX	Brett Hextall	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
160	TBL	Luke Witkowski	D	132	13	0.8	0.5	+0.12	fair
161	VAN	Mats Froshaug	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
162	CHI	Jonathan Carlsson	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
163	EDM	Teemu Hartikainen	F	52	13	0.5	0.5	-0.01	fair
164	BUF	Nick Crawford	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
165	CAR	Mike Murphy	G	2	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
166	NSH	Jeffrey Foss	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
167	COL	Joel Chouinard	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
168	CGY	Ryley Grantham	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
169	CHI	Ben Smith	F	237	54	1.7	0.5	+0.37	great value
170	COL	Jonas Holos	D	39	6	0.3	0.5	-0.13	fair
171	NYR	Mitch Gaulton	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
172	NJD	David Wohlberg	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
173	BOS	Nick Tremblay	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
174	WSH	Greg Burke	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
175	NYI	Justin DiBenedetto	F	8	1	0.0	0.5	-0.29	poor value
176	DAL	Matt Tassone	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
177	SJS	Tommy Wingels	F	448	143	3.8	0.5	+0.62	STEAL
178	PHI	Zac Rinaldo	F	374	42	2.3	0.5	+0.48	great value
179	CHI	Braden Birch	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
180	PIT	Patrick Killeen	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
181	DET	Stephen Johnston	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
182	TBL	Matias Sointu	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
183	LAK	Garrett Roe	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
184	ATL	Zach Redmond	D	133	38	1.3	0.4	+0.30	great value
185	STL	Paul Karpowich	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
186	SJS	Jason Demers	D	700	214	6.4	0.4	+0.76	STEAL
187	CBJ	Sean Collins	F	21	3	0.1	0.5	-0.21	fair
188	TOR	Andrew MacWilliam	D	12	2	0.1	0.4	-0.23	fair
189	PHX	Tim Billingsley	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
190	FLA	Matt Bartkowski	D	256	48	2.0	0.4	+0.46	great value
191	VAN	Morgan Clark	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
192	CHI	Joe Gleason	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
193	EDM	Jordan Bendfeld	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
194	SJS	Drew Daniels	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
195	CAR	Samuel Morneau	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
196	PHI	Joacim Eriksson	G	1	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
197	BOS	Mark Goggin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
198	CGY	Alexander Deilert	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
199	OTT	Emil Sandin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
200	COL	Nate Condon	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
201	NSH	Jani Lajunen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
202	NJD	Harry Young	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
203	TBL	David Carle	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
204	WSH	Stefan Della Rovere	F	7	0	0.0	0.5	-0.30	poor value
205	NJD	Jean-Sebastien Berube	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
206	MTL	Patrick Johnson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
207	NSH	Anders Lindback	G	130	—	1.2	0.3	+0.36	great value
208	ANA	Nick Pryor	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
209	DAL	Mike Bergin	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
210	PIT	Nicholas D'Agostino	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
211	DET	Jesper Samuelsson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.81
4	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.81
5	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
8	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.79
9	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
10	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.78
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.78
12	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
13	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.77
16	2003 · #148	Lee StempniakF · STL	+0.77
17	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.77
18	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
19	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.77
20	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
21	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
22	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
23	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.76
24	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
25	2008 · #186	Jason DemersD · SJS	+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.80
4	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.80
5	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.80
6	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.80
7	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.80
8	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.80
9	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.80
10	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.80
11	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.80
12	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.79
13	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.79
14	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.79
15	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.79
16	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.79
17	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.79
18	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.79
19	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.79
20	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.79
21	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.78
22	2007 · #25	Patrick WhiteF · VAN	-0.78
23	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.77
24	2002 · #27	Mike MorrisF · SJS	-0.77
25	2009 · #27	Philippe ParadisF · CAR	-0.77