NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2011 draft class209 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	EDM	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	F	1031	804	10.4	11.6	-0.05	fair
2	COL	Gabriel Landeskog	F	798	606	9.6	9.9	-0.02	fair
3	FLA	Jonathan Huberdeau	F	962	807	10.6	8.5	+0.11	fair
4	NJD	Adam Larsson	D	1012	266	6.9	6.3	+0.04	fair
5	NYI	Ryan Strome	F	916	501	7.5	7.1	+0.03	fair
6	OTT	Mika Zibanejad	F	1011	818	10.0	6.1	+0.23	fair
7	WPG	Mark Scheifele	F	961	907	10.0	6.1	+0.23	fair
8	PHI	Sean Couturier	F	952	579	8.4	4.1	+0.32	great value
9	BOS	Dougie Hamilton	D	912	540	10.7	5.1	+0.33	great value
10	MIN	Jonas Brodin	D	915	278	7.2	1.9	+0.53	STEAL
11	COL	Duncan Siemens	D	20	2	0.1	1.9	-0.59	BUST
12	CAR	Ryan Murphy	D	175	43	1.5	1.9	-0.09	fair
13	CGY	Sven Baertschi	F	292	138	2.9	4.0	-0.14	fair
14	DAL	Jamie Oleksiak	D	758	161	4.4	1.9	+0.34	great value
15	NYR	J.T. Miller	F	939	762	8.9	4.0	+0.35	great value
16	BUF	Joel Armia	F	653	232	3.8	4.0	-0.03	fair
17	MTL	Nathan Beaulieu	D	471	98	3.8	1.9	+0.29	great value
18	CHI	Mark McNeill	F	2	0	0.0	3.8	-0.79	BUST
19	EDM	Oscar Klefbom	D	378	156	4.2	1.9	+0.32	great value
20	PHX	Connor Murphy	D	825	177	5.2	1.9	+0.41	great value
21	OTT	Stefan Noesen	F	482	175	2.2	3.8	-0.23	fair
22	TOR	Tyler Biggs	F	0	0	0.0	3.8	-0.79	BUST
23	PIT	Joe Morrow	D	162	32	1.2	1.9	-0.16	fair
24	OTT	Matt Puempel	F	87	16	0.6	3.7	-0.59	BUST
25	TOR	Stuart Percy	D	12	3	0.1	1.9	-0.60	BUST
26	CHI	Phillip Danault	F	786	411	5.7	3.4	+0.23	fair
27	TBL	Vladislav Namestnikov	F	846	350	5.7	3.3	+0.24	fair
28	MIN	Zack Phillips	F	0	0	0.0	3.2	-0.76	BUST
29	VAN	Nicklas Jensen	F	31	6	0.2	2.9	-0.66	BUST
30	ANA	Rickard Rakell	F	862	567	7.3	2.7	+0.42	great value
31	EDM	David Musil	D	4	2	0.0	1.9	-0.63	BUST
32	STL	Ty Rattie	F	99	30	0.8	2.2	-0.37	poor value
33	FLA	Rocco Grimaldi	F	203	67	1.8	2.0	-0.04	fair
34	NYI	Scott Mayfield	D	615	140	3.9	1.8	+0.31	great value
35	DET	Tomas Jurco	F	221	53	1.6	1.6	+0.01	fair
36	CHI	Adam Clendening	D	90	24	0.8	1.6	-0.24	fair
37	CBJ	Boone Jenner	F	808	421	6.5	1.5	+0.55	STEAL
38	NSH	Magnus Hellberg	G	26	—	0.2	1.0	-0.38	poor value
39	ANA	John Gibson	G	563	—	5.0	1.0	+0.57	STEAL
40	BOS	Alex Khokhlachev	F	9	0	0.0	1.5	-0.58	BUST
41	STL	Dmitrij Jaskin	F	315	70	2.2	1.5	+0.14	fair
42	CAR	Victor Rask	F	506	223	4.9	1.5	+0.45	great value
43	CHI	Brandon Saad	F	984	538	8.7	1.5	+0.64	STEAL
44	DAL	Brett Ritchie	F	391	85	2.8	1.5	+0.24	fair
45	CGY	Markus Granlund	F	335	101	2.6	1.5	+0.21	fair
46	STL	Joel Edmundson	D	685	153	4.0	1.5	+0.39	great value
47	SJS	Matt Nieto	F	705	206	5.1	1.5	+0.47	great value
48	DET	Xavier Ouellet	D	178	28	1.3	1.5	-0.05	fair
49	LAK	Christopher Gibson	G	16	—	0.1	1.0	-0.41	poor value
50	NYI	Johan Sundstrom	F	11	1	0.1	1.5	-0.56	BUST
51	PHX	Alexander Ruuttu	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
52	NSH	Miikka Salomaki	F	167	27	1.1	1.5	-0.13	fair
53	ANA	William Karlsson	F	752	453	6.6	1.5	+0.56	STEAL
54	PIT	Scott Harrington	D	255	49	2.0	1.5	+0.11	fair
55	DET	Ryan Sproul	D	44	12	0.4	1.5	-0.38	poor value
56	PHX	Lucas Lessio	F	41	7	0.3	1.5	-0.45	poor value
57	CGY	Tyler Wotherspoon	D	30	5	0.2	1.5	-0.47	poor value
58	TBL	Nikita Kucherov	F	879	1124	9.9	1.5	+0.67	STEAL
59	FLA	Rasmus Bengtsson	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
60	MIN	Mario Lucia	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
61	OTT	Shane Prince	F	128	38	1.0	1.5	-0.15	fair
62	EDM	Samu Perhonen	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
63	NYI	Andrey Pedan	D	13	0	0.1	1.4	-0.54	BUST
64	FLA	Vincent Trocheck	F	868	631	7.5	1.5	+0.60	STEAL
65	ANA	Joseph Cramarossa	F	68	13	0.5	1.5	-0.35	poor value
66	CBJ	T.J. Tynan	F	31	2	0.1	1.5	-0.52	BUST
67	WPG	Adam Lowry	F	845	294	5.1	1.4	+0.49	great value
68	PHI	Nick Cousins	F	723	218	4.3	1.4	+0.43	great value
69	NJD	Forfeited	F	0	0	0.0	1.4	-0.58	BUST
70	CHI	Michael Paliotta	D	2	1	0.0	1.1	-0.51	BUST
71	VAN	David Honzik	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
72	NYR	Steven Fogarty	F	31	3	0.2	1.3	-0.42	poor value
73	CAR	Keegan Lowe	D	4	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
74	EDM	Travis Ewanyk	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
75	NJD	Blake Coleman	F	693	325	4.3	1.2	+0.48	great value
76	FLA	Logan Shaw	F	232	39	1.5	1.2	+0.10	fair
77	BUF	Daniel Catenacci	F	12	0	0.1	1.1	-0.49	poor value
78	WPG	Brennan Serville	D	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
79	CHI	Klas Dahlbeck	D	170	23	1.2	1.0	+0.06	fair
80	LAK	Andy Andreoff	F	188	27	1.2	1.1	+0.03	fair
81	BOS	Anthony Camara	F	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.51	BUST
82	LAK	Nicholas Shore	F	299	59	2.1	1.0	+0.25	great value
83	ANA	Andy Welinski	D	46	6	0.3	0.9	-0.26	poor value
84	PHX	Harrison Ruopp	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
86	TOR	Josh Leivo	F	265	93	2.3	1.0	+0.31	great value
87	FLA	Jonathan Racine	D	1	0	0.0	0.9	-0.46	poor value
88	STL	Jordan Binnington	G	377	—	3.1	1.0	+0.41	great value
89	SJS	Justin Sefton	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.46	poor value
90	VAN	Alexandre Grenier	F	9	0	0.0	0.9	-0.43	poor value
91	FLA	Kyle Rau	F	61	7	0.4	0.9	-0.20	fair
92	EDM	Dillon Simpson	D	3	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
93	COL	Joachim Nermark	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
94	NSH	Josh Shalla	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
95	NYI	Robbie Russo	D	19	0	0.1	0.8	-0.39	poor value
96	OTT	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	F	871	401	6.2	0.8	+0.67	STEAL
97	MTL	Josiah Didier	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
98	CBJ	Mike Reilly	D	460	133	3.3	0.8	+0.49	great value
99	NJD	Reid Boucher	F	133	42	1.1	0.8	+0.09	fair
100	TOR	Tom Nilsson	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
101	VAN	Joseph LaBate	F	20	1	0.1	0.8	-0.39	poor value
102	STL	Yannick Veilleux	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
103	CAR	Gregory Hofmann	F	24	7	0.2	0.8	-0.31	poor value
104	CGY	Johnny Gaudreau	F	763	743	10.0	0.8	+0.78	STEAL
105	DAL	Emil Molin	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
106	NYR	Michael St. Croix	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
107	BUF	Colin Jacobs	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
108	MTL	Olivier Archambault	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.43	poor value
109	CHI	Maxim Shalunov	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.43	poor value
110	LAK	Michael Mersch	F	17	3	0.1	0.7	-0.34	poor value
111	PHX	Kale Kessy	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
112	NSH	Garrett Noonan	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
113	MTL	Magnus Nygren	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
114	EDM	Tobias Rieder	F	478	145	3.9	0.7	+0.57	STEAL
115	DET	Marek Tvrdon	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
116	PHI	Colin Suellentrop	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
117	WSH	Steffen Soberg	G	0	—	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
118	PHI	Marcel Noebels	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
119	WPG	Zachary Yuen	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
120	VAN	Ludwig Blomstrand	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
121	BOS	Brian Ferlin	F	7	1	0.0	0.7	-0.36	poor value
122	EDM	Martin Gernat	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.43	poor value
123	COL	Garrett Meurs	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.39	poor value
124	FLA	Yaroslav Kosov	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
125	NYI	John Persson	F	10	1	0.1	0.6	-0.34	poor value
126	OTT	Fredrik Claesson	D	170	28	1.3	0.7	+0.18	fair
128	CBJ	Seth Ambroz	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
129	NJD	Blake Pietila	F	38	4	0.2	0.6	-0.21	fair
130	TOR	Tony Cameranesi	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
131	MIN	Nick Seeler	D	453	72	1.5	0.7	+0.25	fair
132	STL	Niklas Lundstrom	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
133	SJS	Sean Kuraly	F	644	175	3.3	0.6	+0.55	STEAL
134	NYR	Shane McColgan	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
135	DAL	Troy Vance	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
136	NYR	Samuel Noreau	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
137	BUF	Alex Lepkowski	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
138	MTL	Darren Dietz	D	13	5	0.1	0.7	-0.29	poor value
139	CHI	Andrew Shaw	F	544	247	5.3	0.6	+0.69	STEAL
140	LAK	Joel Lowry	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
141	PHX	Darian Dziurzynski	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
142	NSH	Simon Karlsson	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
143	ANA	Max Friberg	F	6	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
144	PIT	Dominik Uher	F	2	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
145	DET	Philippe Hudon	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
146	DET	Mattias Backman	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
147	WSH	Patrick Koudys	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
148	TBL	Nikita Nesterov	D	170	37	1.5	0.6	+0.28	great value
149	WPG	Austen Brassard	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
150	VAN	Frank Corrado	D	76	8	0.5	0.6	-0.05	fair
151	BOS	Rob O'Gara	D	33	3	0.2	0.6	-0.21	fair
152	TOR	David Broll	F	5	1	0.0	0.5	-0.30	poor value
153	COL	Gabriel Beaupre	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
154	FLA	Edward Wittchow	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
155	PHX	Andrew Fritsch	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
156	OTT	Darren Kramer	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
157	WPG	Jason Kasdorf	G	1	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
158	CBJ	Lukas Sedlak	F	192	35	1.3	0.5	+0.27	great value
159	NJD	Reece Scarlett	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
160	ANA	Josh Manson	D	705	201	4.4	0.5	+0.65	STEAL
161	MIN	Steve Michalek	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
162	STL	Ryan Tesink	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
163	CAR	Matt Mahalak	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
164	CGY	Laurent Brossoit	G	141	—	1.8	0.3	+0.48	great value
165	DAL	Matej Stransky	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
166	SJS	Daniil Sobchenko	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
167	BUF	Nathan Lieuwen	G	7	—	0.0	0.3	-0.19	fair
168	MTL	Daniel Pribyl	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
169	CHI	Sam Jardine	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
170	NSH	Chase Balisy	F	8	0	0.0	0.5	-0.30	poor value
171	OTT	Max McCormick	F	94	13	0.6	0.5	+0.05	fair
172	NYR	Peter Ceresnak	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
173	TOR	Dennis Robertson	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
174	PIT	Josh Archibald	F	305	83	2.4	0.5	+0.49	great value
175	DET	Richard Nedomlel	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
176	PHI	Petr Placek	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
177	WSH	Travis Boyd	F	299	118	2.5	0.5	+0.49	great value
178	TBL	Adam Wilcox	G	1	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
179	SJS	Dylan DeMelo	D	718	182	4.1	0.5	+0.65	STEAL
180	VAN	Pathrik Westerholm	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
181	BOS	Lars Volden	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
182	EDM	Frans Tuohimaa	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
183	COL	Dillon Donnelly	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
184	FLA	Iiro Pakarinen	F	134	23	0.9	0.5	+0.16	fair
185	NYI	Mitchell Theoret	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
186	OTT	Jordan Fransoo	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
187	WPG	Aaron Harstad	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
188	CBJ	Anton Forsberg	G	226	—	1.4	0.3	+0.41	great value
189	NJD	Patrick Daly	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
190	TOR	Garret Sparks	G	40	—	0.4	0.3	+0.03	fair
191	MIN	Tyler Graovac	F	84	15	0.6	0.5	+0.05	fair
192	STL	Teemu Eronen	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
193	CAR	Brody Sutter	F	12	0	0.1	0.5	-0.28	poor value
194	SJS	Colin Blackwell	F	368	106	1.7	0.5	+0.38	great value
195	DAL	Jyrki Jokipakka	D	150	28	1.1	0.4	+0.28	great value
196	PHX	Zac Larraza	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
197	BUF	Brad Navin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
198	MTL	Colin Sullivan	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
199	CHI	Alex Broadhurst	F	2	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
200	LAK	Michael Schumacher	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
201	TBL	Matthew Peca	F	83	21	0.6	0.5	+0.06	fair
202	NSH	Brent Andrews	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
203	TOR	Max Everson	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
204	OTT	Ryan Dzingel	F	404	188	3.9	0.5	+0.63	STEAL
205	DET	Alexey Marchenko	D	121	21	0.9	0.4	+0.21	fair
206	PHI	Derek Mathers	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
207	WSH	Garrett Haar	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
208	TBL	Ondrej Palat	F	905	520	8.0	0.5	+0.79	STEAL
209	PIT	Scott Wilson	F	193	51	1.4	0.5	+0.33	great value
210	VAN	Henrik Tommernes	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
211	CHI	Johan Mattsson	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.81
4	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.81
5	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
8	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.79
9	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
10	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.78
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.78
12	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
13	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.77
16	2003 · #148	Lee StempniakF · STL	+0.77
17	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.77
18	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
19	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.77
20	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
21	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
22	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
23	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.76
24	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
25	2008 · #186	Jason DemersD · SJS	+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.80
4	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.80
5	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.80
6	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.80
7	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.80
8	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.80
9	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.80
10	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.80
11	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.80
12	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.79
13	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.79
14	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.79
15	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.79
16	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.79
17	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.79
18	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.79
19	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.79
20	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.79
21	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.78
22	2007 · #25	Patrick WhiteF · VAN	-0.78
23	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.77
24	2002 · #27	Mike MorrisF · SJS	-0.77
25	2009 · #27	Philippe ParadisF · CAR	-0.77