NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2013 draft class211 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	COL	Nathan MacKinnon	F	950	1142	13.9	11.6	+0.09	fair
2	FLA	Aleksander Barkov	F	804	782	11.4	9.9	+0.07	fair
3	TBL	Jonathan Drouin	F	671	398	6.5	8.5	-0.12	fair
4	NSH	Seth Jones	D	912	473	10.7	6.3	+0.25	fair
5	CAR	Elias Lindholm	F	969	652	10.2	7.1	+0.17	fair
6	CGY	Sean Monahan	F	896	631	9.8	6.1	+0.22	fair
7	EDM	Darnell Nurse	D	798	324	8.0	5.1	+0.21	fair
8	BUF	Rasmus Ristolainen	D	820	318	8.4	5.1	+0.23	fair
9	VAN	Bo Horvat	F	881	618	9.4	4.1	+0.37	great value
10	DAL	Valeri Nichushkin	F	627	357	5.7	4.0	+0.16	fair
11	PHI	Samuel Morin	D	0	0	0.0	1.9	-0.65	BUST
12	PHX	Max Domi	F	815	486	7.9	4.0	+0.30	great value
13	WPG	Josh Morrissey	D	739	428	8.6	1.9	+0.58	STEAL
14	CBJ	Alexander Wennberg	F	869	425	7.5	4.0	+0.28	great value
15	NYI	Ryan Pulock	D	636	241	6.0	1.9	+0.46	great value
16	BUF	Nikita Zadorov	D	804	190	6.0	1.9	+0.46	great value
17	OTT	Curtis Lazar	F	617	131	4.1	3.9	+0.02	fair
18	SJS	Mirco Mueller	D	185	28	1.3	1.9	-0.13	fair
19	CBJ	Kerby Rychel	F	43	14	0.3	3.8	-0.67	BUST
20	DET	Anthony Mantha	F	588	367	5.5	3.8	+0.16	fair
21	TOR	Frederik Gauthier	F	178	31	1.2	3.8	-0.44	poor value
22	CGY	Emile Poirier	F	8	1	0.0	3.8	-0.77	BUST
23	WSH	Andre Burakovsky	F	771	420	7.3	3.8	+0.29	great value
24	VAN	Hunter Shinkaruk	F	15	4	0.1	3.7	-0.74	BUST
25	MTL	Michael McCarron	F	381	79	2.0	3.6	-0.24	fair
26	ANA	Shea Theodore	D	634	402	8.2	1.9	+0.57	STEAL
27	CBJ	Marko Dano	F	141	45	1.1	3.3	-0.40	poor value
28	CGY	Morgan Klimchuk	F	1	0	0.0	3.2	-0.76	BUST
29	DAL	Jason Dickinson	F	566	172	4.0	2.9	+0.13	fair
30	CHI	Ryan Hartman	F	725	347	6.1	2.7	+0.35	great value
31	FLA	Ian McCoshen	D	60	7	0.4	1.9	-0.46	poor value
32	COL	Chris Bigras	D	46	4	0.3	1.9	-0.51	BUST
33	TBL	Adam Erne	F	424	99	2.9	2.0	+0.15	fair
34	MTL	Jacob de la Rose	F	242	38	1.6	1.8	-0.04	fair
35	BUF	J.T. Compher	F	658	302	5.4	1.6	+0.48	great value
36	MTL	Zach Fucale	G	4	—	0.0	1.0	-0.48	poor value
37	LAK	Valentin Zykov	F	55	17	0.4	1.5	-0.37	poor value
38	BUF	Connor Hurley	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
39	PHX	Laurent Dauphin	F	94	17	0.6	1.5	-0.29	poor value
40	DAL	Remi Elie	F	107	22	0.7	1.5	-0.24	fair
41	PHI	Robert Hagg	D	345	63	2.7	1.5	+0.22	fair
42	NJD	Steven Santini	D	136	24	0.9	1.5	-0.17	fair
43	WPG	Nic Petan	F	170	35	1.2	1.5	-0.09	fair
44	PIT	Tristan Jarry	G	326	—	4.0	1.0	+0.50	great value
45	ANA	Nick Sorensen	F	5	1	0.0	1.5	-0.58	BUST
46	MIN	Gustav Olofsson	D	63	11	0.5	1.5	-0.35	poor value
47	STL	Thomas Vannelli	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
48	DET	Zach Nastasiuk	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
49	SJS	Gabryel Boudreau	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
50	CBJ	Dillon Heatherington	D	23	2	0.1	1.5	-0.51	BUST
51	CHI	Carl Dahlstrom	D	67	12	0.5	1.5	-0.33	poor value
52	BUF	Justin Bailey	F	141	23	0.9	1.5	-0.18	fair
53	WSH	Madison Bowey	D	158	40	1.4	1.5	-0.02	fair
54	DAL	Philippe Desrosiers	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
55	MTL	Artturi Lehkonen	F	660	336	5.6	1.5	+0.50	STEAL
56	EDM	Marco Roy	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
57	STL	William Carrier	F	526	136	3.5	1.5	+0.33	great value
58	DET	Tyler Bertuzzi	F	567	365	5.2	1.5	+0.48	great value
59	WPG	Eric Comrie	G	102	—	1.2	1.0	+0.06	fair
60	BOS	Linus Arnesson	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
61	WSH	Zachary Sanford	F	334	104	2.8	1.5	+0.24	fair
62	PHX	Yan Pavel Laplante	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
63	COL	Spencer Martin	G	72	—	0.6	1.0	-0.15	fair
64	NSH	Jonathan-Ismael Diaby	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
65	NYR	Adam Tambellini	F	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
66	CAR	Brett Pesce	D	736	222	6.7	1.3	+0.60	STEAL
67	CGY	Keegan Kanzig	D	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
68	DAL	Niklas Hansson	D	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
69	BUF	Nick Baptiste	F	47	10	0.3	1.4	-0.39	poor value
70	NYI	Eamon McAdam	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
71	MTL	Connor Crisp	F	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
72	PHI	Tyrell Goulbourne	F	11	0	0.1	1.3	-0.52	BUST
73	NJD	Ryan Kujawinski	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
74	CHI	John Hayden	F	272	39	1.8	1.2	+0.14	fair
75	NYR	Pavel Buchnevich	F	674	506	7.3	1.2	+0.64	STEAL
76	NYI	Taylor Cammarata	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
77	PIT	Jake Guentzel	F	681	659	8.4	1.1	+0.69	STEAL
78	OTT	Marcus Hogberg	G	58	—	0.5	1.0	-0.22	fair
79	DET	Mattias Janmark	F	680	221	5.3	1.1	+0.57	STEAL
80	NYR	Anthony Duclair	F	669	341	6.1	1.1	+0.61	STEAL
81	MIN	Kurtis Gabriel	F	51	5	0.3	1.1	-0.31	poor value
82	TOR	Carter Verhaeghe	F	488	357	4.9	1.0	+0.56	STEAL
83	EDM	Bogdan Yakimov	F	1	0	0.0	1.0	-0.50	BUST
84	WPG	Jimmy Lodge	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
85	VAN	Cole Cassels	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
86	MTL	Sven Andrighetto	F	216	83	1.8	1.0	+0.23	fair
87	ANA	Keaton Thompson	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
88	EDM	Anton Slepyshev	F	102	23	0.7	0.9	-0.07	fair
89	CBJ	Oliver Bjorkstrand	F	704	416	6.8	0.9	+0.68	STEAL
90	BOS	Peter Cehlarik	F	40	11	0.3	0.9	-0.27	poor value
91	WPG	JC Lipon	F	9	1	0.1	0.9	-0.42	poor value
92	FLA	Evan Cowley	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
93	COL	Mason Geertsen	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
94	EDM	Jackson Houck	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
95	NSH	Felix Girard	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
96	EDM	Kyle Platzer	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
97	FLA	Michael Downing	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
98	FLA	Matt Buckles	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
99	NSH	Juuse Saros	G	467	—	5.8	0.8	+0.65	STEAL
100	NJD	Miles Wood	F	567	196	4.4	0.8	+0.58	STEAL
101	DAL	Nick Paul	F	537	214	4.4	0.8	+0.58	STEAL
102	OTT	Tobias Lindberg	F	6	2	0.0	0.8	-0.40	poor value
103	LAK	Justin Auger	F	2	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
104	WPG	Andrew Copp	F	779	343	6.4	0.8	+0.69	STEAL
105	CBJ	Nick Moutrey	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
106	NYI	Stephon Williams	G	0	—	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
107	MIN	Dylan Labbe	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
108	OTT	Ben Harpur	D	198	21	1.4	0.8	+0.17	fair
109	DET	David Pope	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.43	poor value
110	NYR	Ryan Graves	D	455	119	4.0	0.8	+0.55	STEAL
111	CHI	Robin Norell	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
112	STL	Zach Pochiro	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
113	EDM	Aidan Muir	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
114	WPG	Jan Kostalek	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
115	VAN	Jordan Subban	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
116	MTL	Martin Reway	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
117	SJS	Fredrik Bergvik	G	0	—	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
118	LAK	Hudson Fasching	F	175	40	1.2	0.7	+0.17	fair
119	PIT	Ryan Segalla	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
120	BOS	Ryan Fitzgerald	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
121	CHI	Tyler Motte	F	455	99	3.2	0.7	+0.52	STEAL
122	FLA	Christopher Clapperton	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
123	COL	Will Butcher	D	275	114	3.1	0.7	+0.49	great value
124	TBL	Kristers Gudlevskis	G	3	—	0.0	0.4	-0.24	fair
125	NSH	Saku Maenalanen	F	98	18	0.6	0.6	-0.01	fair
126	CAR	Brent Pedersen	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
127	WPG	Tucker Poolman	D	163	23	1.3	0.7	+0.19	fair
128	EDM	Evan Campbell	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
129	BUF	Cal Petersen	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
130	BUF	Gustav Possler	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
131	DAL	Cole Ully	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
132	PHI	Terrance Amorosa	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
133	PHX	Connor Clifton	D	434	83	3.0	0.7	+0.50	great value
134	CHI	Luke Johnson	F	32	2	0.2	0.6	-0.21	fair
135	CGY	Eric Roy	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
136	NYI	Viktor Crus Rydberg	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
137	MIN	Carson Soucy	D	441	99	3.2	0.7	+0.52	STEAL
138	OTT	Vincent Dunn	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
139	DET	Mitch Wheaton	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
140	NSH	Teemu Kivihalme	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
141	SJS	Michael Brodzinski	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
142	TOR	Fabrice Herzog	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
143	BUF	Anthony Florentino	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
144	WSH	Blake Heinrich	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
145	VAN	Anton Cederholm	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
146	LAK	Patrik Bartosak	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
147	ANA	Grant Besse	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
148	LAK	Jonny Brodzinski	F	264	71	1.5	0.5	+0.33	great value
149	DAL	Matej Paulovic	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
150	BOS	Wiley Sherman	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
151	SJS	Gage Ausmus	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
152	FLA	Joshua Brown	D	300	35	2.0	0.6	+0.40	great value
153	COL	Ben Storm	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
154	TBL	Henri Ikonen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
155	NSH	Emil Pettersson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
156	CAR	Tyler Ganly	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
157	CGY	Tim Harrison	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
158	EDM	Ben Betker	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
159	BUF	Sean Malone	F	2	1	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
160	NJD	Myles Bell	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
161	OTT	Chris Leblanc	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
162	PHI	Merrick Madsen	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
163	PHX	Brendan Burke	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
164	PIT	Dane Birks	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
165	CBJ	Markus Soberg	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
166	NYI	Alan Quine	F	106	28	0.8	0.5	+0.13	fair
167	MIN	Avery Peterson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
168	OTT	Quentin Shore	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
169	DET	Marc McNulty	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
170	NYR	Mackenzie Skapski	G	2	—	0.0	0.3	-0.20	fair
171	NSH	Tommy Veilleux	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
172	TOR	Antoine Bibeau	G	4	—	0.0	0.3	-0.20	fair
173	STL	Santeri Saari	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
174	WSH	Brian Pinho	F	2	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
175	VAN	Mike Williamson	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
176	MTL	Jeremy Grégoire	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
177	ANA	Miro Aaltonen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
178	LAK	Zachary Leslie	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
179	PIT	Blaine Byron	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
180	BOS	Anton Blidh	F	89	13	0.6	0.5	+0.03	fair
181	CHI	Anthony Louis	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
182	DAL	Aleksi Makela	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
183	COL	Wilhelm Westlund	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
184	TBL	Saku Salminen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
185	NSH	Wade Murphy	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
186	TBL	Joel Vermin	F	24	4	0.2	0.5	-0.21	fair
187	CGY	Rushan Rafikov	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
188	EDM	Gregory Chase	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
189	BUF	Eric Locke	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
190	WPG	Brenden Kichton	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
191	LAK	Dominik Kubalik	F	357	176	3.7	0.5	+0.61	STEAL
192	PHI	David Drake	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
193	PHX	Jedd Soleway	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
194	WPG	Marcus Karlstrom	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
195	CBJ	Peter Quenneville	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
196	NYI	Kyle Burroughs	D	201	22	1.3	0.4	+0.32	great value
197	MIN	Nolan De Jong	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
198	CGY	John Gilmour	D	37	5	0.3	0.4	-0.09	fair
199	DET	Hampus Melen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
200	MIN	Alexandre Belanger	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
201	SJS	Jacob Jackson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
202	TOR	Andreas Johnsson	F	259	116	2.5	0.5	+0.50	great value
203	NSH	Janne Juvonen	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
204	WSH	Tyler Lewington	D	12	3	0.1	0.4	-0.19	fair
205	VAN	Miles Liberati	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
206	FLA	MacKenzie Weegar	D	629	279	6.4	0.4	+0.77	STEAL
207	SJS	Emil Galimov	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
208	NJD	Anthony Brodeur	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
209	PIT	Troy Josephs	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
210	BOS	Mitchell Dempsey	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
211	CHI	Robin Press	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.81
4	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.81
5	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
8	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.79
9	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
10	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.78
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.78
12	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
13	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.77
16	2003 · #148	Lee StempniakF · STL	+0.77
17	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.77
18	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
19	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.77
20	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
21	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
22	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
23	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.76
24	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
25	2008 · #186	Jason DemersD · SJS	+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.80
4	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.80
5	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.80
6	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.80
7	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.80
8	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.80
9	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.80
10	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.80
11	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.80
12	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.79
13	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.79
14	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.79
15	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.79
16	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.79
17	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.79
18	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.79
19	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.79
20	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.79
21	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.78
22	2007 · #25	Patrick WhiteF · VAN	-0.78
23	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.77
24	2002 · #27	Mike MorrisF · SJS	-0.77
25	2009 · #27	Philippe ParadisF · CAR	-0.77