IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2015 draft class211 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1EDMConnor McDavidF794122015.511.0+0.16fairthru yr 11
2BUFJack EichelF6906989.99.3+0.03fairthru yr 11
3ARIDylan StromeF5984427.07.9-0.06fairthru yr 11
4TORMitch MarnerF73882111.47.7+0.18fairthru yr 11
5CARNoah HanifinD8293539.15.8+0.21fairthru yr 11
6NJDPavel ZachaF7064077.35.7+0.12fairthru yr 11
7PHIIvan ProvorovD7783138.45.2+0.22fairthru yr 11
8CBJZach WerenskiD6424659.85.2+0.29great valuethru yr 11
9SJSTimo MeierF6984797.93.9+0.31great valuethru yr 11
10COLMikko RantanenF71678210.83.9+0.44great valuethru yr 11
11FLALawson CrouseF6662595.73.9+0.17fairthru yr 11
12DALDenis GurianovF2981132.83.9-0.15fairthru yr 11
13BOSJakub ZborilD76160.71.8-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
14BOSJake DeBruskF6283566.43.9+0.22fairthru yr 11
15BOSZach SenyshynF1630.13.9-0.75BUSTthru yr 11
16NYIMathew BarzalF6115348.13.8+0.33great valuethru yr 11
17WPGKyle ConnorF6956749.73.7+0.41great valuethru yr 11
18OTTThomas ChabotD5693357.71.8+0.56STEALthru yr 11
19DETEvgeny SvechnikovF172451.33.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 11
20MINJoel Eriksson EkF6143506.43.7+0.24fairthru yr 11
21OTTColin WhiteF3231132.83.7-0.12fairthru yr 11
22WSHIlya SamsonovG2002.70.9+0.39great valuethru yr 11
23VANBrock BoeserF6294827.73.7+0.33great valuethru yr 11
24PHITravis KonecnyF7235448.73.5+0.39great valuethru yr 11
25WPGJack RoslovicF5952965.83.4+0.24fairthru yr 11
26MTLNoah JuulsenD209271.41.8-0.11fairthru yr 11
27ANAJacob LarssonD172241.41.8-0.11fairthru yr 11
28NYIAnthony BeauvillierF7132996.42.9+0.34great valuethru yr 11
29CBJGabriel CarlssonD81180.71.8-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
30ARINick MerkleyF41150.42.5-0.52BUSTthru yr 11
31SJSJeremy RoyD000.01.8-0.65BUSTthru yr 11
32ARIChristian FischerF5231373.92.1+0.27great valuethru yr 11
33TBLMitchell StephensF123190.81.9-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
34TORTravis DermottD348622.71.6+0.21fairthru yr 11
35CARSebastian AhoF75671110.51.5+0.69STEALthru yr 11
36OTTGabriel GagneF000.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
37BOSBrandon CarloD6921195.11.5+0.48great valuethru yr 11
38CBJPaul BittnerF000.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
39COLA.J. GreerF000.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
40COLNicolas MelocheD5780.41.4-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
41NYRRyan GroppF000.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
42NJDMackenzie BlackwoodG2913.60.9+0.49great valuethru yr 11
43LAKErik CernakD5021204.31.4+0.43great valuethru yr 11
44TBLMatthew SpencerD000.01.4-0.58BUSTthru yr 11
45BOSJakob Forsbacka KarlssonF2990.21.5-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
46PITDaniel SprongF3741663.41.5+0.33great valuethru yr 11
47WPGJansen HarkinsF305452.01.5+0.11fairthru yr 11
48OTTFilip ChlapikF57110.41.5-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
49DALRoope HintzF5214216.51.5+0.56STEALthru yr 11
50MINJordan GreenwayF4751654.11.5+0.40great valuethru yr 11
51BUFBrendan GuhleD65140.61.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
52BOSJeremy LauzonD384582.81.4+0.26great valuethru yr 11
53CGYRasmus AnderssonD6172787.01.4+0.60STEALthru yr 11
54CHIGraham KnottF000.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
55NSHYakov TreninF4571203.41.5+0.33great valuethru yr 11
56STLVince DunnD6233307.71.4+0.63STEALthru yr 11
57WSHJonas SiegenthalerD449823.31.4+0.34great valuethru yr 11
58CBJKevin StenlundF368902.71.5+0.24fairthru yr 11
59ANAJulius NattinenF000.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
60CGYOliver KylingtonD220601.91.4+0.13fairthru yr 11
61TORJeremy BraccoF000.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
62NYRRobin KovacsF000.01.4-0.59BUSTthru yr 11
63ARIKyle CapobiancoD107170.81.3-0.19fairthru yr 11
64TBLDennis YanF000.01.4-0.58BUSTthru yr 11
65TORAndrew NielsenD000.01.2-0.55BUSTthru yr 11
66VANGuillaume BriseboisD3030.21.2-0.42poor valuethru yr 11
67NJDBlake SpeersF500.01.3-0.55BUSTthru yr 11
68TORMartins DzierkalsF000.01.3-0.56BUSTthru yr 11
69CBJKeegan KolesarF4391203.31.2+0.37great valuethru yr 11
70PHIFelix SandstromG300.20.9-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
71COLJ.C. BeaudinF2210.11.2-0.45poor valuethru yr 11
72TBLAnthony CirelliF5823446.11.2+0.60STEALthru yr 11
73DETVili SaarijarviD000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
74LAKAlexander DergachyovF000.01.1-0.52BUSTthru yr 11
75BOSDan VladarG1571.90.9+0.25great valuethru yr 11
76ARIAdin HillG2132.80.9+0.40great valuethru yr 11
77FLASamuel MontembeaultG2312.20.9+0.32great valuethru yr 11
78WPGErik FoleyF000.01.0-0.50BUSTthru yr 11
79NYRSergey ZborovskiyD000.00.9-0.46poor valuethru yr 11
80ANABrent Gates Jr.F000.01.0-0.49poor valuethru yr 11
81ARIBrendan WarrenF000.01.0-0.49poor valuethru yr 11
82NYIMitchell Vande SompelD000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 11
83ARIJens LookeF000.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 11
84ANADeven SideroffF000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
85NSHTommy NovakF000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
86SJSMike RobinsonG00.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
87MTLLukas VejdemoF1320.10.8-0.39poor valuethru yr 11
88FLAThomas SchemitschD000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 11
89NYRAleksi SaarelaF940.10.8-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
90PHIMatej TomekG00.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
91CHIDennis GilbertD119210.90.8+0.04fairthru yr 11
92BUFWill BorgenD373832.90.8+0.45great valuethru yr 11
93CARCallum BoothG00.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 11
94STLAdam MusilF000.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 11
95TORJesper LindgrenD000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 11
96CARNicolas RoyF4431914.00.7+0.57STEALthru yr 11
97NJDColton WhiteD107140.70.8-0.03fairthru yr 11
98PHISamuel Dove-McFallsF000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 11
99LAKAustin WagnerF178421.40.7+0.22fairthru yr 11
100NSHAnthony RichardF40140.30.7-0.21fairthru yr 11
101COLAndrei MironovD1030.10.8-0.36poor valuethru yr 11
102FLADenis MalginF257812.00.7+0.35great valuethru yr 11
103DALChris MartenetD000.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 11
104PHIMikhail VorobyevF3550.20.7-0.25fairthru yr 11
105BOSJesse GabrielleF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
106SJSAdam HelewkaF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
107OTTChristian WolaninD86230.80.8+0.01fairthru yr 11
108WPGMichael SpacekF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
109OTTFilip AhlF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
110DETJoren Van PottelbergheG00.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
111MINAles StezkaG10.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
112NYIParker WotherspoonD188461.50.8+0.23fairthru yr 11
113NYRBrad MorrisonF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 11
114VANDmitry ZhukenovF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 11
115NSHAlexandre CarrierD3691093.30.7+0.50STEALthru yr 11
116STLGlenn GawdinF1310.10.7-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
117EDMCaleb JonesD255562.10.7+0.36great valuethru yr 11
118TBLJonne TammelaF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 11
119NYRDaniel BernhardtF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 11
120TBLMathieu JosephF4711603.90.6+0.59STEALthru yr 11
121CHIRyan SheaD150411.30.7+0.18fairthru yr 11
122BUFDevante StephensD000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
123ARIConor GarlandF5563245.90.6+0.70STEALthru yr 11
124EDMEthan BearD275672.50.7+0.43great valuethru yr 11
125TORDmytro TimashovF4590.30.6-0.13fairthru yr 11
126CARLuke StevensF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 11
127STLNiko MikkolaD396733.00.7+0.49great valuethru yr 11
128PHIDavid KaseF710.10.6-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
129CBJSam RuoppD000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 11
130SJSKarlis CuksteD000.00.7-0.39poor valuethru yr 11
131MTLMatthew BradleyF000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
132FLAKarch BachmanF000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
133DALJoseph CecconiD000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 11
134LAKMatt SchmalzF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 11
135MINKirill KaprizovF3974756.40.6+0.73STEALthru yr 11
136CGYPavel KarnaukhovF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 11
137PITDominik SimonF256772.00.6+0.41great valuethru yr 11
138CARSpencer SmallmanF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 11
139OTTChristian JarosD94140.70.6+0.04fairthru yr 11
140DETChase PearsonF300.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
141CBJVeeti VainioD000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
142SJSRudolfs BalcersF170621.50.5+0.33great valuethru yr 11
143WSHConnor HobbsD000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
144VANCarl NeillD000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 11
145NSHKarel VejmelkaG2622.70.3+0.61STEALthru yr 11
146STLLuke OpilkaG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
147NYIRyan PilonD000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 11
148ANATroy TerryF4883425.60.5+0.71STEALthru yr 11
149VANAdam GaudetteF3671213.10.5+0.56STEALthru yr 11
150TBLRyan ZuhlsdorfD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
151CHIRadovan BondraF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
152BUFGiorgio EstephanF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
153TBLKristian OldhamG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
154EDMJohn MarinoD4431574.50.5+0.66STEALthru yr 11
155TORStephen DesrocherD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
156CARJake MassieD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
157NJDBrett SeneyF66140.40.5-0.04fairthru yr 11
158PHICooper MarodyF710.00.5-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
159CBJVladislav GavrikovD5171705.00.5+0.69STEALthru yr 11
160SJSAdam ParsellsD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
161COLSergei BoikovD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
162FLAChristopher WilkieF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
163DALMarkus RuusuG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
164CHIRoy RadkeF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
165BOSCameron HughesF510.00.5-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
166CGYAndrew MangiapaneF5602595.30.5+0.71STEALthru yr 11
167PITFrederik TiffelsF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
168WPGMason AppletonF4651523.80.5+0.63STEALthru yr 11
169CARDavid CottonF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
170DETPatrick HolwayD000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
171MINNicholas BokaD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
172NYIAndong SongD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
173WSHColby WilliamsD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
174VANLukas JasekF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
175NSHTyler MoyF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
176STLLiam DundaF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
177MTLSimon BourqueD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
178ANASteven RuggieroD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
179ANAGarrett MetcalfG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
180TBLBokondji ImamaF3320.20.5-0.18fairthru yr 11
181CHIJoni TuulolaD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
182BUFIvan ChukarovD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
183ARIErik KallgrenG240.20.3-0.03fairthru yr 11
184NYRAdam HuskaG10.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
185TORNikita KorostelevF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
186CARSteven LorentzF381802.60.5+0.53STEALthru yr 11
187LAKChaz ReddekoppD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
188PHIIvan FedotovG290.20.3-0.05fairthru yr 11
189CBJMarkus NutivaaraD275712.50.4+0.55STEALthru yr 11
190SJSMarcus VelaF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
191COLGustav OlhaverF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
192FLAPatrick SheaF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
193SJSJake KupskyG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
194LAKMatt RoyF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
195BOSJack BeckerF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
196CGYRiley BruceD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
197PITNikita PavlychevF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
198WPGSami NikuD67160.60.4+0.11fairthru yr 11
199OTTJoey DaccordG1732.00.3+0.52STEALthru yr 11
200DETAdam MarshF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
201MINGustav BourammanD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
202NYIPetter HanssonD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
203WPGMatteo GennaroF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
204MINJack SadekD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
205NSHEvan SmithG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
206FLARyan BednardG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
207MTLJeremiah AddisonF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
208EDMMiroslav SvobodaG00.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
209EDMZiyat PaiginD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
210VANTate OlsonD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
211CHIJohn DahlstromF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77