IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2016 draft class210 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1TORAuston MatthewsF68978010.810.0+0.04fairthru yr 10
2WPGPatrik LaineF5374226.78.2-0.09fairthru yr 10
3CBJPierre-Luc DuboisF6274277.07.1-0.00fairthru yr 10
4EDMJesse PuljujarviF3871283.26.6-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
5VANOlli JuoleviD4130.35.3-0.76BUSTthru yr 10
6CGYMatthew TkachukF6736709.65.5+0.26great valuethru yr 10
7ARIClayton KellerF6835968.95.5+0.22fairthru yr 10
8BUFAlex NylanderF126491.13.5-0.42poor valuethru yr 10
9MTLMikhail SergachevD6303698.44.7+0.27great valuethru yr 10
10COLTyson JostF5641654.43.5+0.11fairthru yr 10
11OTTLogan BrownF99260.73.5-0.53BUSTthru yr 10
12NJDMichael McLeodF287852.33.5-0.17fairthru yr 10
13CARJake BeanD277652.41.7+0.13fairthru yr 10
14BOSCharlie McAvoyD5733618.01.7+0.59STEALthru yr 10
15MINLuke KuninF4961524.03.4+0.06fairthru yr 10
16ARIJakob ChychrunD6213237.81.7+0.58STEALthru yr 10
17NSHDante FabbroD4511093.91.7+0.33great valuethru yr 10
18WPGLogan StanleyD278622.31.7+0.11fairthru yr 10
19NYIKieffer BellowsF114320.93.2-0.46poor valuethru yr 10
20DETDennis CholowskiD173421.51.7-0.04fairthru yr 10
21CARJulien GauthierF181411.33.2-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
22PHIGerman RubtsovF400.03.1-0.75BUSTthru yr 10
23FLAHenrik BorgstromF111260.83.1-0.48poor valuethru yr 10
24ANAMax JonesF305692.33.0-0.12fairthru yr 10
25DALRiley TufteF2840.23.0-0.68BUSTthru yr 10
26STLTage ThompsonF5294066.22.9+0.33great valuethru yr 10
27TBLBrett HowdenF4891634.02.8+0.15fairthru yr 10
28WSHLucas JohansenD920.11.7-0.59BUSTthru yr 10
29BOSTrent FredericF4121163.12.5+0.08fairthru yr 10
30ANASam SteelF4911754.12.3+0.24fairthru yr 10
31TOREgor KorshkovF110.02.1-0.67BUSTthru yr 10
32EDMTyler BensonF3830.22.0-0.55BUSTthru yr 10
33BUFRasmus AsplundF189491.51.8-0.07fairthru yr 10
34CBJAndrew PeekeD386752.91.5+0.27great valuethru yr 10
35STLJordan KyrouF4883785.91.4+0.54STEALthru yr 10
36PHIPascal LabergeF000.01.4-0.58BUSTthru yr 10
37TBLLibor HajekD110120.81.4-0.16fairthru yr 10
39CHIAlex DeBrincatF6965959.01.4+0.67STEALthru yr 10
40COLCam MorrisonF000.01.4-0.58BUSTthru yr 10
41NJDNathan BastianF312752.31.4+0.19fairthru yr 10
42OTTJonathan DahlenF61220.51.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
43CARJanne KuokkanenF119421.21.4-0.06fairthru yr 10
44TBLBoris KatchoukF179361.21.4-0.06fairthru yr 10
45CHIChad KrysD000.01.4-0.58BUSTthru yr 10
46DETGivani SmithF168221.11.4-0.09fairthru yr 10
47NSHSamuel GirardD6082426.61.4+0.59STEALthru yr 10
48PHICarter HartG2453.00.8+0.44great valuethru yr 10
49BOSRyan LindgrenD4811114.11.4+0.42great valuethru yr 10
50CHIArtur KayumovF000.01.4-0.58BUSTthru yr 10
51LAKKale ClagueD94210.81.4-0.17fairthru yr 10
52PHIWade AllisonF75220.61.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
53DETFilip HronekD5332876.81.4+0.59STEALthru yr 10
54CGYTyler ParsonsG00.00.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 10
55PITFilip GustavssonG2193.10.8+0.45great valuethru yr 10
56CGYDillon DubeF3251272.91.4+0.29great valuethru yr 10
57TORCarl GrundstromF339892.61.4+0.24fairthru yr 10
58TBLTaylor RaddyshF3731192.81.4+0.27great valuethru yr 10
59STLEvan FitzpatrickG00.00.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 10
60SJSDylan GambrellF233401.71.3+0.09fairthru yr 10
61PITKasper BjorkqvistF610.01.3-0.54BUSTthru yr 10
62TORJoseph WollG1171.50.8+0.20fairthru yr 10
63EDMMarkus NiemelainenD4310.21.2-0.41poor valuethru yr 10
64VANWilliam LockwoodF5420.31.2-0.37poor valuethru yr 10
65CBJVitaly AbramovF510.01.2-0.51BUSTthru yr 10
66CGYAdam FoxD4864228.51.1+0.70STEALthru yr 10
67CARMatt FilipeF000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 10
68ARICam DineenD3870.31.0-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
69BUFCliff PuF000.01.1-0.51BUSTthru yr 10
70MTLWilliam BittenF410.01.0-0.49poor valuethru yr 10
71COLJosh AndersonD000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 10
72TORJames GreenwayD000.00.9-0.46poor valuethru yr 10
73NJDJoey AndersonF169401.21.0+0.07fairthru yr 10
74CARHudson ElynuikF000.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 10
75CARJack LaFontaineG20.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 10
76NSHRem PitlickF132541.10.9+0.08fairthru yr 10
77PITConnor HallD000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 10
78NSHFrederic AllardD400.00.8-0.42poor valuethru yr 10
79WPGLuke GreenD000.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 10
80NJDBrandon GignacF810.00.8-0.42poor valuethru yr 10
81NYRSean DayD200.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 10
82PHICarsen TwarynskiF2210.10.8-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
83CHIWouter PeetersG00.00.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 10
84EDMMatthew CairnsD000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 10
85ANAJoshua MahuraD000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 10
86BUFCasey FitzgeraldD6390.40.7-0.13fairthru yr 10
87WSHGarrett PilonF310.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 10
88TBLConnor IngramG1341.50.8+0.22fairthru yr 10
89FLALinus NassenD000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 10
90DALFredrik KarlstromF810.00.7-0.36poor valuethru yr 10
91EDMFilip BerglundD000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 10
92TORAdam BrooksF43110.40.7-0.15fairthru yr 10
93ANAJack KopackaF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 10
94FLAJonathan AngF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 10
95NYIAnatolii GolyshevF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 10
96CGYLinus LindstromF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 10
97WPGJacob CederholmD000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 10
98NYRTarmo ReunanenD410.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
99BUFBrett MurrayF2660.20.6-0.25poor valuethru yr 10
100MTLVictor MeteD248452.00.6+0.37great valuethru yr 10
101TORKeaton MiddletonD4730.30.6-0.19fairthru yr 10
102NJDMikhail MaltsevF5690.50.6-0.08fairthru yr 10
103OTTTodd BurgessF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 10
104CARMax ZimmerF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 10
105NJDEvan CormierG00.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
106MINBrandon DuhaimeF375702.40.6+0.44great valuethru yr 10
107DETAlfons MalmstromD000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 10
108NSHHardy Haman AktellD610.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
109PHIConnor BunnamanF5430.40.6-0.13fairthru yr 10
110CHILucas CarlssonD73150.60.6-0.02fairthru yr 10
111SJSNoah GregorF330792.40.6+0.45great valuethru yr 10
112LAKJacob MoverareD109110.70.6+0.02fairthru yr 10
113CHINathan NoelF000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 10
114FLARiley StillmanD167261.20.6+0.21fairthru yr 10
115ANAAlex DostieF000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 10
116DALRhett GardnerF4120.30.6-0.16fairthru yr 10
117WSHDamien RiatF000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 10
118TBLRoss ColtonF4041763.60.6+0.58STEALthru yr 10
119STLTanner KaspickF000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 10
120NYIOtto KoivulaF2840.20.6-0.22fairthru yr 10
121PITRyan JonesD000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 10
122TORVladimir BobylevF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 10
123EDMDylan WellsG10.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 10
124MTLCasey StaumD000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 10
125STLNolan StevensF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 10
126CGYMitchell MattsonF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 10
127WPGJordy StallardF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
128DALColton PointG00.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 10
129BUFPhilip NybergD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
130BUFVojtech BudikD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
131COLAdam WernerG20.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 10
132NJDYegor RykovD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
133OTTMaxime LajoieD77160.60.5+0.03fairthru yr 10
134CARJeremy HelvigG00.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 10
135BOSJoona KoppanenF3330.20.5-0.20fairthru yr 10
136BOSCam ClarkeD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
137DETJordan SambrookD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
138NSHPatrick HarperF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
139PHILinus HogbergD520.10.5-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
140VANCole CandellaD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
141NYRTim GettingerF1610.10.5-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
142LAKMichael EyssimontF269741.90.5+0.41great valuethru yr 10
143CHIMathias FromF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
144STLConner BleackleyF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
145WSHBeck MalenstynF262481.70.5+0.37great valuethru yr 10
146DALNick CaamanoF3630.30.5-0.13fairthru yr 10
147WSHAxel Jonsson-FjallbyF99230.70.5+0.08fairthru yr 10
148TBLChristopher PaquetteF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
149EDMGraham McPheeF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
150SJSManuel WiedererF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
151PITNiclas AlmariD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
152TORJonathan WalkerD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
153EDMAapeli RasanenF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
154VANJakob StukelF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
155CBJPeter ThomeG00.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 10
156CGYEetu TuulolaF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
157WPGMikhail BerdinG00.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 10
158ARIPatrick KudlaD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
159BUFBrandon HagelF4463715.60.5+0.73STEALthru yr 10
160MTLMichael PezzettaF209381.30.5+0.31great valuethru yr 10
161COLNathan ClurmanD100.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
162NJDJesper BrattF6345187.90.5+0.80STEALthru yr 10
163OTTMarkus NurmiF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
164CARNoah CarrollD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
165BOSOskar SteenF6080.40.5-0.05fairthru yr 10
166CGYMatthew PhillipsF3450.20.4-0.14fairthru yr 10
167DETFilip LarssonG00.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 10
168NSHKonstantin VolkovG00.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 10
169PHITanner LaczynskiF56100.40.4-0.04fairthru yr 10
170NYICollin AdamsF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
171NYRGabriel FontaineF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
172PHIAnthony SalinitriF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
173CHIBlake HillmanD410.00.4-0.24fairthru yr 10
174NYRTyler WallG00.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 10
175FLAMaxim MaminF73180.50.4+0.04fairthru yr 10
176DALJakob StenqvistD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
177WSHChase PriskieD400.00.4-0.24fairthru yr 10
178TBLOleg SosunovD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
179TORNicolas MattinenD000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
180SJSMark ShoemakerD000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
181PITJoseph MasoniusD000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
182TORNikolai ChebykinF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
183EDMVincent DesharnaisD218261.40.3+0.38great valuethru yr 10
184VANRodrigo AbolsF64150.40.4+0.01fairthru yr 10
185CBJCalvin ThurkaufF300.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
186CGYStepan FalkovskyD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 10
187MTLArvid HenriksonD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 10
188ARIDean StewartD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
189BUFAustin OsmanskiD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
190BUFVasily GlotovF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
191COLTravis BarronF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
192NJDJeremy DaviesD2330.20.3-0.08fairthru yr 10
193NYINick PastujovF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
194VANBrett McKenzieF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
195FLABen FinkelsteinD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
196MINDmitry SokolovF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
197DETMattias ElfstromF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
198NSHAdam SmithD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
199PHIDavid BernhardtD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
200NYIDavid QuennevilleD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
201NYRTy RonningF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
202LAKJacob FriendD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
203CHIJake RyczekD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
204MINBraydyn ChizenD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
205ANATyler SoyF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 10
206TBLOtto SomppiF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 10
207WSHDmitriy ZaitsevD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
208TBLRyan LohinF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 10
209STLNikolaj Krag ChristensenF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 10
210SJSJoachim BlichfeldF810.10.4-0.21fairthru yr 10
211STLFilip HeltF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77