IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2017 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NJDNico HischierF6094887.48.9-0.09fairthru yr 9
2PHINolan PatrickF222771.96.9-0.51BUSTthru yr 9
3DALMiro HeiskanenD5523467.65.3+0.17fairthru yr 9
4COLCale MakarD4705079.55.3+0.27great valuethru yr 9
5VANElias PetterssonF5455087.35.1+0.16fairthru yr 9
6VGKCody GlassF3221192.74.8-0.24fairthru yr 9
7NYRLias AnderssonF110170.84.8-0.61BUSTthru yr 9
8BUFCasey MittelstadtF5092785.13.3+0.18fairthru yr 9
9DETMichael RasmussenF4541543.63.3+0.04fairthru yr 9
10FLAOwen TippettF4282364.33.3+0.11fairthru yr 9
11LAKGabriel VilardiF3522444.03.3+0.08fairthru yr 9
12CARMartin NecasF5194266.63.3+0.30great valuethru yr 9
13VGKNick SuzukiF5374767.13.3+0.33great valuethru yr 9
14TBLCal FooteD145201.11.5-0.13fairthru yr 9
15VGKErik BrannstromD294772.61.5+0.21fairthru yr 9
16CGYJuuso VälimäkiD271722.41.5+0.18fairthru yr 9
17TORTimothy LiljegrenD311932.71.5+0.23fairthru yr 9
18BOSUrho VaakanainenD221461.71.5+0.05fairthru yr 9
19SJSJosh NorrisF2831923.32.9+0.06fairthru yr 9
20STLRobert ThomasF5304606.82.8+0.37great valuethru yr 9
21NYRFilip ChytilF4051733.72.8+0.12fairthru yr 9
22EDMKailer YamamotoF3741603.52.8+0.10fairthru yr 9
23ARIPierre-Olivier JosephD225461.71.5+0.05fairthru yr 9
24WPGKristian VesalainenF7050.42.7-0.55BUSTthru yr 9
25MTLRyan PoehlingF3581312.92.6+0.04fairthru yr 9
26DALJake OettingerG3054.30.7+0.60STEALthru yr 9
27PHIMorgan FrostF3921903.52.5+0.15fairthru yr 9
28OTTShane BowersF1300.12.4-0.68BUSTthru yr 9
29CHIHenri JokiharjuD4481123.91.5+0.37great valuethru yr 9
30NSHEeli TolvanenF4231903.92.1+0.26great valuethru yr 9
31STLKlim KostinF190531.41.9-0.12fairthru yr 9
32COLConor TimminsD198541.81.5+0.07fairthru yr 9
33VANKole LindF3180.21.6-0.48poor valuethru yr 9
34VGKNicolas HagueD426983.61.3+0.38great valuethru yr 9
35PHIIsaac RatcliffeF1040.11.3-0.51BUSTthru yr 9
36NJDJesper BoqvistF3871052.91.3+0.32great valuethru yr 9
37BUFMarcus DavidssonF000.01.3-0.56BUSTthru yr 9
38DETGustav LindstromD174351.41.2+0.03fairthru yr 9
39DALJason RobertsonF4564906.71.3+0.61STEALthru yr 9
40FLAAleksi HeponiemiF2560.21.3-0.43poor valuethru yr 9
41LAKJaret Anderson-DolanF134291.01.3-0.07fairthru yr 9
42CAREetu LuostarinenF4471623.71.3+0.41great valuethru yr 9
43WPGDylan SambergD282652.21.2+0.22fairthru yr 9
44ARIFilip WesterlundD000.01.2-0.55BUSTthru yr 9
45CBJAlexandre TexierF2831112.61.3+0.27great valuethru yr 9
46NYIRobin SaloD3290.31.2-0.38poor valuethru yr 9
47OTTAlex FormentonF109390.91.3-0.10fairthru yr 9
48TBLAlexander VolkovF46140.51.3-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
49SJSMario FerraroD4901144.21.2+0.46great valuethru yr 9
50ANAMaxime ComtoisF211872.11.3+0.19fairthru yr 9
51PITZachary LauzonD000.01.2-0.55BUSTthru yr 9
52CARLuke MartinD000.01.2-0.55BUSTthru yr 9
53BOSJack StudnickaF126160.81.2-0.14fairthru yr 9
54BUFUkko-Pekka LuukkonenG1902.40.7+0.40great valuethru yr 9
55VANJonah GadjovichF170211.01.2-0.07fairthru yr 9
56MTLJosh BrookD000.01.2-0.54BUSTthru yr 9
57CHIIan MitchellD110190.91.2-0.09fairthru yr 9
58MTLJoni IkonenF000.01.2-0.54BUSTthru yr 9
59TOREemeli RasanenD000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 9
60ANAAntoine MorandF000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 9
61NSHGrant MismashF000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 9
62VGKJake LeschyshynF7760.41.1-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
63NJDFabian ZetterlundF3291492.91.1+0.37great valuethru yr 9
64VANMichael DiPietroG40.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 9
65VGKJonas RondbjergF80110.51.0-0.21fairthru yr 9
66FLAMax GildonD000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 9
67CARMorgan GeekieF4142274.11.0+0.52STEALthru yr 9
68MTLScott WalfordD000.00.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 9
69ARIMacKenzie EntwistleF193351.20.9+0.11fairthru yr 9
70CHIAndrei AltybarmakianF000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 9
71DETKasper KotkansaloD000.00.7-0.43poor valuethru yr 9
72LAKMatt VillaltaG30.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 9
73CARStelio MattheosF000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 9
74WPGJohnathan KovacevicD258531.90.7+0.35great valuethru yr 9
75ARINate SchnarrF000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 9
76TBLAlexey LipanovF000.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 9
77NYIBenjamin MirageasD000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 9
78EDMStuart SkinnerG2242.80.7+0.46great valuethru yr 9
79DETLane ZablockiF000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 9
80PHIKirill UstimenkoG00.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 9
81NJDReilly WalshD110.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 9
82ARICameron CrottyD810.10.6-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
83DETZach GallantF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 9
84EDMDmitri SamorukovD300.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 9
85MINIvan LodniaF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 9
86CBJDaniil TarasovG981.00.7+0.12fairthru yr 9
87MTLCale FleuryD10060.60.6+0.02fairthru yr 9
88DETKeith PetruzzelliG00.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 9
89BUFOskari LaaksonenD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 9
90CHIEvan BarrattF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 9
91ANAJack BadiniF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 9
92NSHDavid FarranceD200.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
93PITClayton PhillipsD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 9
94COLNick HenryF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 9
95VANJack RathboneD2850.20.5-0.17fairthru yr 9
96VGKMaksim ZhukovG00.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
97MINMason ShawF82200.60.6+0.00fairthru yr 9
98NJDNikita PopugaevF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 9
99BUFJacob BrysonD304512.30.5+0.46great valuethru yr 9
100DETMalte SetkovD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
101DALLiam HawelF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 9
102SJSScott ReedyF3590.30.5-0.16fairthru yr 9
103LAKMikey AndersonD4251023.60.5+0.60STEALthru yr 9
104CAREetu MakiniemiG20.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
105WPGSanteri VirtanenF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 9
106PHIMatthew StromeF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 9
107PHIMaksim SushkoF200.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
108ARINoel HoefenmayerD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
109CGYAdam RuzickaF117400.90.5+0.16fairthru yr 9
110TORIan ScottG00.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
111BOSJeremy SwaymanG2453.80.4+0.67STEALthru yr 9
112CHITim SoderlundF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
113STLAlexey ToropchenkoF324712.20.5+0.45great valuethru yr 9
114COLPetr KvacaG00.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
115EDMOstap SafinF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
116MINBryce MisleyF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
117CBJEmil BemstromF242752.00.5+0.42great valuethru yr 9
118LAKMarkus PhillipsD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
119CHIRoope LaavainenD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
120WSHTobias GeisserD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
121OTTDrake BathersonF4703645.70.5+0.72STEALthru yr 9
122ANAKyle OlsonF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
123NYRBrandon CrawleyD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
124TORVladislav KaraF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
125COLIgor ShvyrevF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 9
126ARIMichael KarowD000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 9
127VGKLucas ElvenesF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 9
128ARITyler SteenbergenF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 9
129NJDGilles SennG20.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
130STLDavid NoelD000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 9
131DETCole FraserD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 9
132DALJacob PetersonF83250.60.5+0.08fairthru yr 9
133FLATyler InamotoD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 9
134LAKCole HultsD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
135VANKristoffer GunnarssonD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
136WPGLeon GawankeD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
137PHINoah CatesF3171492.80.4+0.55STEALthru yr 9
138LAKDrake RymshaF100.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
139NYISebastian AhoD190501.60.4+0.39great valuethru yr 9
140CGYZach FischerF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
141TORFedor GordeevD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
142VGKJack DuganF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
143NJDMarián StudenicF4660.30.4-0.07fairthru yr 9
144CHIParker FooF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
145NYRCalle SjalinD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
146EDMKirill MaksimovF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
147MINJacob GoldenD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
148CBJKale HowarthF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
149MTLJarret TyszkaD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
150CHIJakub GalvasD600.00.4-0.25fairthru yr 9
151WSHSebastian WalfridssonD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
152PITJan DrozgF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
153ANAOlle Eriksson EkG10.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
154NSHTomas VomackaG00.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
155PITLinus OlundF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
156COLDenis SmirnovF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
157NYRDominik LakatosF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
158VGKNick CampoliF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
159SJSJacob McGrewF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
160NJDAarne TalvitieF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
161VGKJiri PateraG90.10.2-0.09fairthru yr 9
162DETJohn AdamsF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
163DALBrett DavisF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
164DETReilly WebbD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
165NYIArnaud DurandeauF400.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
166CARBrendan De JongD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
167WPGArvid HolmG00.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
168PHIOlle LycksellF52130.40.4-0.01fairthru yr 9
169TBLNick PerbixD299762.40.3+0.57STEALthru yr 9
170CBJJonathan DavidssonF610.00.4-0.23fairthru yr 9
171CGYD'Artagnan JolyF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
172TORRyan McGregorF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
173BOSCedric PareF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
174NYRMorgan BarronF321832.30.4+0.53STEALthru yr 9
175STLTrenton BourqueD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
176NSHPavel KoltyginF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
177EDMSkyler Brind'AmourF610.00.4-0.23fairthru yr 9
178MINAndrei SvetlakovF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
179CBJCarson MeyerF4160.20.4-0.06fairthru yr 9
180TBLCole GuttmanF41140.30.3-0.02fairthru yr 9
181VANPetrus PalmuF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
182WSHBenton MaassD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 9
183OTTJordan HollettG00.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
184FLASebastian RepoF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 9
185SJSSasha ChmelevskiF24100.20.3-0.07fairthru yr 9
186PITAntti PalojarviD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
187COLNick LeivermannD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
188VANMatt BrassardD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
189VGKBen JonesF5630.30.3-0.02fairthru yr 9
190ARIErik Walli WalterholmF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
191NJDJocktan ChaineyD000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 9
192BUFLinus WeissbachF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
193DETBrady GilmourF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
194DALDylan FergusonG30.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 9
195BOSVictor BerglundD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
196PHIWyatt KalynukD2690.30.2+0.06fairthru yr 9
197CARVille RasanenD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
198WPGSkyler McKenzieF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
199MTLCayden PrimeauG580.60.2+0.20fairthru yr 9
200TBLSammy WalkerF1320.10.3-0.17fairthru yr 9
201NYILogan CockerillF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
202CGYFilip SveningssonF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
203TORRyan O'ConnellD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
204BOSDaniel BukacD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
205NJDYegor ZaitsevD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
206STLAnton AnderssonD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
207NYRPatrik VirtaF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
208EDMPhilip KempD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
209MINNick SwaneyF100.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
210CBJRobbie StuckerD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
211WPGCroix EvingsonD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
212SJSIvan ChekhovichF410.00.3-0.19fairthru yr 9
213WSHKristian Roykas MarthinsenF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
214NJDMatthew HellicksonD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
215CHIJoshua EssD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
216NSHJacob PaquetteD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
217PITWilliam ReillyD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77