IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2018 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1BUFRasmus DahlinD5864349.06.9+0.12fairthru yr 8
2CARAndrei SvechnikovF5574346.96.2+0.05fairthru yr 8
3MTLJesperi KotkaniemiF5182034.55.5-0.09fairthru yr 8
4OTTBrady TkachukF5724637.25.3+0.14fairthru yr 8
5ARIBarrett HaytonF3581553.14.3-0.14fairthru yr 8
6DETFilip ZadinaF262912.34.0-0.24fairthru yr 8
7VANQuinn HughesD5074859.44.3+0.35great valuethru yr 8
8CHIAdam BoqvistD2721032.94.1-0.14fairthru yr 8
9NYRVitali KravtsovF64120.53.0-0.56BUSTthru yr 8
10EDMEvan BouchardD4293336.52.1+0.46great valuethru yr 8
11NYIOliver WahlstromF236732.03.0-0.17fairthru yr 8
12NYINoah DobsonD4682776.12.1+0.44great valuethru yr 8
13DALTy DellandreaF265611.92.9-0.18fairthru yr 8
14PHIJoel FarabeeF4972454.92.8+0.24fairthru yr 8
15FLAGrigori DenisenkoF3370.32.7-0.62BUSTthru yr 8
16COLMartin KautF56110.42.6-0.55BUSTthru yr 8
17NJDTy SmithD131491.52.1-0.12fairthru yr 8
18CBJLiam FoudyF105220.82.4-0.39poor valuethru yr 8
19PHIJay O'BrienF000.02.4-0.70BUSTthru yr 8
20LAKRasmus KupariF217381.42.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
21SJSRyan MerkleyD3960.31.9-0.52BUSTthru yr 8
22NYRK'Andre MillerD4401694.51.8+0.38great valuethru yr 8
23ANAIsac LundeströmF405962.92.3+0.10fairthru yr 8
24MINFilip JohanssonD000.01.6-0.62BUSTthru yr 8
25STLDominik BokkF000.02.2-0.69BUSTthru yr 8
26OTTJacob Bernard-DockerD207291.41.6-0.06fairthru yr 8
27CHINicolas BeaudinD2260.31.6-0.47poor valuethru yr 8
28NYRNils LundkvistD235551.81.6+0.05fairthru yr 8
29TORRasmus SandinD3821453.81.5+0.36great valuethru yr 8
30DETJoe VelenoF367862.51.8+0.14fairthru yr 8
31WSHAlexander AlexeyevD8080.51.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
32BUFMattias SamuelssonD290842.51.3+0.26great valuethru yr 8
33DETJonatan BerggrenF205801.71.4+0.07fairthru yr 8
34FLASerron NoelF000.01.2-0.55BUSTthru yr 8
35MTLJesse YlonenF111290.81.1-0.11fairthru yr 8
36DETJared McIsaacD000.01.1-0.52BUSTthru yr 8
37VANJett WooD000.01.1-0.51BUSTthru yr 8
38MTLAlexander RomanovD369843.01.1+0.39great valuethru yr 8
39NYROlof LindbomG00.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 8
40EDMRyan McLeodF3791823.41.1+0.42great valuethru yr 8
41NYIBode WildeD000.01.0-0.51BUSTthru yr 8
42CARJack DruryF268822.01.1+0.22fairthru yr 8
43NYIRuslan IskhakovF110.01.1-0.51BUSTthru yr 8
44DALAlbin ErikssonF000.01.1-0.52BUSTthru yr 8
45STLScott PerunovichD108320.91.0-0.02fairthru yr 8
46WSHMartin FehérváryD3801023.21.0+0.42great valuethru yr 8
47WSHKody ClarkF000.01.1-0.52BUSTthru yr 8
48OTTJonathan TychonickD000.01.0-0.50BUSTthru yr 8
49CBJKirill MarchenkoF2922083.21.1+0.40great valuethru yr 8
50PHIAdam GinningD1610.11.0-0.44poor valuethru yr 8
51LAKAkil ThomasF3270.21.1-0.37poor valuethru yr 8
52TORSean DurziD3021443.31.0+0.43great valuethru yr 8
53PITCalen AddisonD152501.41.0+0.11fairthru yr 8
54ANABo GroulxF78100.51.0-0.22fairthru yr 8
55ARIKevin BahlD297632.31.0+0.30great valuethru yr 8
56MTLJacob OlofssonF000.01.0-0.50BUSTthru yr 8
57BOSAxel AnderssonD000.01.0-0.50BUSTthru yr 8
58PITFilip HallanderF1640.11.0-0.41poor valuethru yr 8
59TBLGabriel FortierF1110.10.9-0.44poor valuethru yr 8
60WPGDavid GustafssonF149200.90.9-0.01fairthru yr 8
61VGKIvan MorozovF000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 8
62EDMOlivier RodrigueG20.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 8
63MINJack McBainF3161072.40.9+0.37great valuethru yr 8
64COLJustus AnnunenG801.20.6+0.21fairthru yr 8
65ARIJan JenikF2460.20.8-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
66MTLCam HillisF100.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 8
67DETAlec RegulaD5140.30.7-0.21fairthru yr 8
68VANTyler MaddenF000.00.7-0.43poor valuethru yr 8
69CHIJake WiseF000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 8
70NYRJacob RagnarssonD000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 8
71MTLJordan HarrisD172401.30.6+0.24fairthru yr 8
72NYIJakub SkarekG20.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 8
73ARITy EmbersonD178351.30.6+0.25great valuethru yr 8
74CHINiklas NordgrenF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 8
75DALOskar BackF145280.90.6+0.12fairthru yr 8
76TORSemyon Der-ArguchintsevF100.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 8
77BOSJakub LaukoF139280.90.6+0.12fairthru yr 8
78COLSampo RantaF1600.10.6-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
79ANABlake McLaughlinF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 8
80CBJMarcus KarlbergF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 8
81DETSeth BartonD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 8
82LAKBulat ShafigullinF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 8
83TORRiley StottsF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 8
84DETJesper EliassonG00.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 8
85ANALukas DostalG1771.80.5+0.38great valuethru yr 8
86MINAlexander KhovanovF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 8
87SJSLinus KarlssonF106410.90.5+0.16fairthru yr 8
88NYRJoey KeaneD200.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
89FLALogan HutskoF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 8
90TBLDmitry SemykinD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
91WPGNate SmithF1440.10.5-0.23fairthru yr 8
92MINConnor DewarF316832.20.5+0.48great valuethru yr 8
93WSHRiley SutterF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 8
94BUFMatej PekarF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
95OTTJonathan GrudenF1610.10.5-0.24fairthru yr 8
96CARLuke HenmanF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
97MTLAllan McShaneF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
98DETRyan O'ReillyF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
99VGKStanislav DeminD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
100DALAdam MascherinF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
101NYRNico GrossD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
102SJSJasper WeatherbyF50110.30.4-0.06fairthru yr 8
103NYIJacob PivonkaF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
104CARLenni KillinenF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
105CGYMartin PospisilF166521.20.4+0.30great valuethru yr 8
106DALCurtis DouglasF4340.20.4-0.12fairthru yr 8
107STLJoel HoferG1151.70.3+0.45great valuethru yr 8
108CGYDemetrios KoumontzisF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 8
109COLTyler WeissF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 8
110NJDXavier BernardD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
111NSHJachym KondelikF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 8
112PHIJack St. IvanyD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
113LAKAidan DudasF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 8
114ARIIvan ProsvetovG240.20.3-0.04fairthru yr 8
115VGKPaul CotterF296822.10.4+0.48great valuethru yr 8
116ANAJack PerbixF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 8
117BUFLinus Lindstrand CronholmD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
118TORMac HollowellD620.10.4-0.23fairthru yr 8
119BOSCurtis HallF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
120CHIPhilipp KurashevF3601503.20.4+0.61STEALthru yr 8
121TBLAlexander GreenD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
122CGYMilos RomanF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
123MTLJack GorniakF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
124WSHMitchell GibsonG00.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
125BUFMiska KukkonenD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
126OTTAngus CrookshankF2950.20.4-0.14fairthru yr 8
127PHIWyatte WylieD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
128MTLCole FonstadF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
129PITJustin AlmeidaF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
130VANToni UtunenD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 8
131NSHSpencer StastneyD117190.80.4+0.21fairthru yr 8
132NYRLauri PajuniemiF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
133MTLSamuel HoudeF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
134NYIBlade JenkinsF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
135VGKBrandon KruseF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
136NJDAkira SchmidG821.00.2+0.37great valuethru yr 8
137DALRiley DamianiF720.10.4-0.22fairthru yr 8
138STLHugh McGingF920.10.4-0.22fairthru yr 8
139CHIMikael HakkarainenF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
140COLBrandon SaigeonF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
141NJDYegor SharangovichF4382264.30.4+0.70STEALthru yr 8
142ARIMichael CallahanD2210.10.3-0.14fairthru yr 8
143PHISamuel ErssonG1431.50.2+0.49great valuethru yr 8
144LAKDavid HrenakG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
145ARIDennis BusbyD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
146COLDanila ZhuravlyovD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
147ANARoman DurnyG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
148MINSimon JohanssonD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
149TORFilip KralD200.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
150WPGDeclan ChisholmD125281.00.3+0.30great valuethru yr 8
151NSHVladislav YeryomenkoD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
152TBLMagnus ChronaG90.10.2-0.09fairthru yr 8
153WPGGiovanni VallatiD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
154VGKConnor CorcoranD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
155MINDamien GirouxF110.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
156TORPontus HolmbergF229711.70.3+0.45great valuethru yr 8
157OTTKevin MandoleseG30.00.2-0.12fairthru yr 8
158ARIDavid TendeckG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
159CBJTim BerniD5930.30.3+0.02fairthru yr 8
160DETVictor BrattstromG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
161WSHAlex Kannok-LeipertD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
162CHIAlexis GravelG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
163NYRSimon KjellbergD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
164EDMMichael KesselringD190551.70.3+0.48great valuethru yr 8
165LAKJohan SodergranF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
166CARJesper SellgrenD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
167CGYMathias Emilio PettersenF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
168DALDawson BarteauxD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
169STLMathias LaferriereF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
170FLAJustin SchutzF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
171COLNikolai KovalenkoF57200.40.3+0.08fairthru yr 8
172NJDMitchell HoelscherF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
173CBJVeini VehvilainenG10.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
174PHIGavin HainF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
175LAKJacob InghamG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
176SJSZachary EmondG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
177PITLiam GormanF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
178ANAHunter DrewD200.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
179MINShawn BoudriasF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
180VGKPeter DiliberatoreD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
181BOSDustyn McFaulD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
182SJSJohn LeonardF81210.70.3+0.23fairthru yr 8
183TBLCole KoepkeF165371.10.3+0.35great valuethru yr 8
184WPGJared MoeG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
185VGKXavier BouchardD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
186VANArtyom ManukyanF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
187BUFWilliam Worge KreuD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
188OTTJakov NovakF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
189ARILiam KirkF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
190MTLBrett StapleyF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
191DETOtto KivenmakiF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
192VANMatthew ThiessenG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
193CHIJosiah SlavinF1710.10.3-0.12fairthru yr 8
194OTTLuke LoheitF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
195EDMPatrik SiikanenF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
196NYIChristian KrygierD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
197CARJacob KucharskiG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
198CGYDmitry ZavgorodniyF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 8
199DALJermaine LoewenF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 8
200STLTyler TuckerD159301.20.2+0.40great valuethru yr 8
201FLACole KrygierD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
202COLShamil ShmakovG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
203NJDEetu PakkilaF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
204CBJTrey Fix-WolanskyF2660.20.2-0.05fairthru yr 8
205PHIMarcus WestfaltF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
206TBLRadim SaldaD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
207FLASanttu KinnunenD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
208VGKJordan KooyG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
209TORZachary BouthillierG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
210MINSam HentgesF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
211TORSemyon KizimovF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
212BOSPavel ShenF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
213NSHMilan KloucekG00.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
214TBLTy TaylorG00.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 8
215WPGAustin WongF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
216NYRRiley HughesF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
217WSHEric FlorchukF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77