IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2019 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NJDJack HughesF4294286.16.8-0.05fairthru yr 7
2NYRKaapo KakkoF4442014.15.2-0.10fairthru yr 7
3CHIKirby DachF3061362.84.6-0.21fairthru yr 7
4COLBowen ByramD3281523.63.8-0.02fairthru yr 7
5LAKAlex TurcotteF162431.13.4-0.41poor valuethru yr 7
6DETMoritz SeiderD4102405.13.7+0.14fairthru yr 7
7BUFDylan CozensF4442724.63.4+0.13fairthru yr 7
8EDMPhilip BrobergD230762.13.5-0.20fairthru yr 7
9ANATrevor ZegrasF3492534.02.6+0.18fairthru yr 7
10VANVasily PodkolzinF301962.32.6-0.05fairthru yr 7
11ARIVictor SoderstromD61120.51.7-0.39poor valuethru yr 7
12MINMatt BoldyF3613294.62.6+0.24fairthru yr 7
13FLASpencer KnightG1501.70.5+0.36great valuethru yr 7
14PHICam YorkD3091032.81.7+0.20fairthru yr 7
15MTLCole CaufieldF3683074.52.3+0.29great valuethru yr 7
16COLAlex NewhookF3381512.92.2+0.13fairthru yr 7
17VGKPeyton KrebsF3781333.02.1+0.15fairthru yr 7
18DALThomas HarleyD2671393.21.7+0.25fairthru yr 7
19OTTLassi ThomsonD2980.21.7-0.50poor valuethru yr 7
20WPGVille HeinolaD58120.51.7-0.39poor valuethru yr 7
21PITSam PoulinF000.01.9-0.66BUSTthru yr 7
22LAKTobias BjornfotD153191.11.5-0.10fairthru yr 7
23NYISimon HolmstromF2791202.41.9+0.09fairthru yr 7
24NSHPhilip TomasinoF218951.91.8+0.01fairthru yr 7
25WSHConnor McMichaelF3151542.91.8+0.20fairthru yr 7
26CGYJakob PelletierF91290.71.7-0.30poor valuethru yr 7
27TBLNolan FooteF42100.31.6-0.45poor valuethru yr 7
28CARRyan SuzukiF200.01.6-0.60BUSTthru yr 7
29ANABrayden TraceyF100.01.5-0.59BUSTthru yr 7
30BOSJohn BeecherF165281.01.4-0.10fairthru yr 7
31BUFRyan JohnsonD4770.31.1-0.33poor valuethru yr 7
32OTTShane PintoF2821532.71.2+0.31great valuethru yr 7
33LAKArthur KaliyevF204761.61.1+0.14fairthru yr 7
34PHIBobby BrinkF214981.91.0+0.22fairthru yr 7
35DETAntti TuomistoD000.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 7
36CARPyotr KochetkovG1251.60.5+0.35great valuethru yr 7
37OTTMads SogaardG310.30.5-0.14fairthru yr 7
38EDMRaphael LavoieF1700.10.9-0.42poor valuethru yr 7
39ANAJackson LaCombeD2301182.70.9+0.40great valuethru yr 7
40VANNils HoglanderF3311202.90.9+0.41great valuethru yr 7
41VGKKaedan KorczakD155371.20.9+0.12fairthru yr 7
42MINVladislav FirstovF000.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 7
43CHIAlex VlasicD260702.20.9+0.33great valuethru yr 7
44CARJamieson ReesF000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 7
45NSHEgor AfanasyevF1910.10.9-0.40poor valuethru yr 7
46MTLJayden StrubleD171351.30.8+0.14fairthru yr 7
47COLDrew HellesonD119291.00.8+0.05fairthru yr 7
48SJSArtemi KniazevD100.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 7
49NYRMatthew RobertsonD74180.60.8-0.10fairthru yr 7
50LAKSamuel FagemoF2140.10.8-0.36poor valuethru yr 7
51WPGSimon LundmarkD100.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 7
52FLAVladislav KolyachonokD87170.60.8-0.06fairthru yr 7
53TORNicholas RobertsonF234881.90.8+0.29great valuethru yr 7
54DETRobert MastrosimoneF000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 7
55SJSDillon HamaliukF000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 7
56WSHBrett LeasonF226541.50.8+0.23fairthru yr 7
57NYISamuel BolducD5280.40.8-0.20fairthru yr 7
58NYRKarl HenrikssonF000.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 7
59MINHunter JonesG00.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 7
60DETAlbert JohanssonD143201.00.7+0.09fairthru yr 7
61NJDNikita OkhotiukD67120.50.7-0.10fairthru yr 7
62STLNikita AlexandrovF5190.30.7-0.18fairthru yr 7
63COLMatt StienburgF800.00.7-0.37poor valuethru yr 7
64MTLMattias NorlinderD610.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 7
65NSHAlex CampbellF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 7
66DETAlbin GreweF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 7
67BUFErik PortilloG10.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 7
68NYRZac JonesD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 7
69FLAJohn LudvigD4170.30.5-0.13fairthru yr 7
70NJDDaniil MisyulD100.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 7
71TBLHugo AlnefeltG10.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 7
72PHIRonnie AttardD2960.20.5-0.14fairthru yr 7
73CARPatrik PuistolaF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 7
74PITNathan LégaréF400.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 7
75MINAdam BeckmanF2330.10.5-0.21fairthru yr 7
76ARIJohn FarinacciF110.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 7
77MTLGianni FairbrotherD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 7
78COLAlex BeaucageF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 7
79VGKPavel DorofeyevF2311492.40.4+0.51STEALthru yr 7
80NJDGraeme ClarkeF300.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 7
81FLACole SchwindtF78150.50.4+0.03fairthru yr 7
82NJDMichael VukojevicD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 7
83CARAnttoni HonkaD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 7
84TORMikko KokkonenD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 7
85EDMIlya KonovalovG00.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 7
86VGKLayton AhacD000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 7
87LAKLukas ParikG00.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 7
88CGYIlya NikolaevF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 7
89TBLMaxim CajkovicF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 7
90CARDomenick FensoreD300.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
91WSHAliaksei ProtasF3211713.00.4+0.60STEALthru yr 7
92BOSQuinn OlsonF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 7
93STLColten EllisG160.30.3-0.00fairthru yr 7
94OTTViktor LodinF100.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 7
95LAKJordan SpenceD253922.40.3+0.57STEALthru yr 7
96NJDTyce ThompsonF1110.10.4-0.20fairthru yr 7
97DETEthan PhillipsF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 7
98ARIMatias MaccelliF2951692.90.4+0.59STEALthru yr 7
99CARCade WebberD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
100EDMMatěj BlümelF1720.10.4-0.18fairthru yr 7
101ANAHenry ThrunD123250.90.3+0.28great valuethru yr 7
102BUFAaron HuglenF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 7
103PHIMason MillmanD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
104CBJEric HjorthD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
105CHIMichal TeplyF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 7
106FLACarter BergerD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
107ARIAlexandr DarinF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 7
108SJSYegor SpiridonovF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 7
109NSHMarc Del GaizoD55120.40.3+0.08fairthru yr 7
110VGKRyder DonovanF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 7
111DALSamuel SjolundD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
112NYRHunter SkinnerD100.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
113WPGHenri NikkanenF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 7
114CBJDmitri VoronkovF2111132.00.3+0.50STEALthru yr 7
115TORMikhail AbramovF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 7
116CGYLucas FeukF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 7
117NSHSemyon ChystyakovD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
118NJDCase McCarthyD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
119LAKKim NousiainenD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
120TBLMaxwell CrozierD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
121CARTuukka TieksolaF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 7
122VANEthan KeppenF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 7
123CHIAntti SaarelaF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
124TORNick AbruzzeseF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
125OTTMark KastelicF287611.90.3+0.50great valuethru yr 7
126MTLJacob LeguerrierD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
127NJDCole BradyG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
128DETCooper MooreD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
129NJDArseni GritsyukF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
130NYRLeevi AaltonenF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
131MTLRhett PitlickF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
132ANATrevor JanickeF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
133VANCarson FochtF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
134WPGHarrison BlaisdellF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
135VGKIsaiah SavilleG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
136FLAHenrik RybinskiF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
137FLAOwen LindmarkF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
138MTLFrederik DichowG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
139VGKMarcus KallionkieliF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
140COLSasha MutalaF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
141VGKMason PrimeauF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
142DALNicholas PorcoF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
143BUFFilip CederqvistF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
144WPGLogan NeatonG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
145PITJudd CaulfieldF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
146TORMichael KosterD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
147NYIReece NewkirkF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
148NSHEthan HaiderG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
149MINMatvey GuskovF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 7
150CGYJoshua NodlerF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 7
151ARIAku RatyF110.00.3-0.19fairthru yr 7
152CARKirill SlepetsF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 7
153WSHMartin HasD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
154BOSRoman BychkovD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
155STLKeean WashkurakF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
156VANArturs SilovsG580.60.1+0.29great valuethru yr 7
157LAKBraden DoyleD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
158NJDPatrick MoynihanF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
159DETElmer SoderblomF106320.80.2+0.27great valuethru yr 7
160BUFLukas RousekF1740.10.2-0.09fairthru yr 7
161NYRAdam EdstromF97160.60.2+0.20fairthru yr 7
162EDMTomas MazuraF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
163ANAWilliam FrancisD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
164SJSTimur IbragimovF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
165PHIEgor SerdyukF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
166MINMarshall WarrenD830.10.2-0.09fairthru yr 7
167CHIDominic BasseG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
168FLAGreg MeirelesF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
169PHIRoddy RossG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
170MTLArsen KhisamutdinovF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
171COLLuka BurzanF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
172MINNikita NesterenkoF61170.40.2+0.13fairthru yr 7
173DALBenjamin BrinkmanD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
174ARIDanil SavunovF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
175VANKarel PlasekF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
176ARIAnthony RomanoF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
177DETGustav BerglundD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
178NYIFelix BibeauF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
179NSHIsak WaltherF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
180VANJack MaloneF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
181CARKevin WallF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
182TBLQuinn SchmiemannD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
183CARBlake MurrayF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
184SJSSanteri HatakkaD2140.20.2-0.01fairthru yr 7
185BOSMatias MantykiviF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
186ANAMathew HillD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
187OTTMaxence GuenetteD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
188LAKAndre LeeF2650.20.2-0.02fairthru yr 7
189NJDNikola PasicF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
190DETKirill TyutyayevF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
191DETCarter GylanderG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
192BOSJake SchmaltzF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
193EDMMaxim DenezhkinF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
194CHICole MobergD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
195VANAidan McDonoughF610.00.2-0.12fairthru yr 7
196PHIBryce BrodzinskiF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
197MINFilip LindbergG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
198TBLMikhail ShalaginF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
199FLAMatthew WedmanF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
200ARIAxel BergkvistD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
201MTLRafael Harvey-PinardF85310.70.2+0.26great valuethru yr 7
202COLTrent MinerG60.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 7
203PITValtteri PuustinenF66240.50.2+0.20fairthru yr 7
204TORKalle LoponenD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
205NYREric CiccoliniF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
206MTLKieran RuscheinskiD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
207ARIValentin NussbaumerF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
208STLVadim ZherenkoG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
209NYICole CoskeyF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
210NSHJuuso ParssinenF157561.20.2+0.44great valuethru yr 7
211PITSanteri AirolaD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
212CBJTyler AngleF410.00.2-0.12fairthru yr 7
213TBLMcKade WebsterF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
214CGYDustin WolfG1281.50.1+0.54STEALthru yr 7
215VANArvid CostmarF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
216CARMassimo RizzoF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
217STLJeremy MichelF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77