IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2020 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NYRAlexis LafrenièreF4622504.65.8-0.10fairthru yr 6
2LAKQuinton ByfieldF3391913.34.3-0.12fairthru yr 6
3OTTTim StützleF4474095.93.9+0.18fairthru yr 6
4DETLucas RaymondF4003304.83.8+0.10fairthru yr 6
5OTTJake SandersonD3031813.93.0+0.11fairthru yr 6
6ANAJamie DrysdaleD2951022.93.0-0.02fairthru yr 6
7NJDAlexander HoltzF191551.42.6-0.25fairthru yr 6
8BUFJack QuinnF2601482.52.1+0.07fairthru yr 6
9MINMarco RossiF2351362.32.1+0.03fairthru yr 6
10WPGCole PerfettiF2901572.72.1+0.11fairthru yr 6
11NSHYaroslav AskarovG630.60.3+0.19fairthru yr 6
12FLAAnton LundellF3592013.52.1+0.21fairthru yr 6
13CARSeth JarvisF3752794.22.0+0.30great valuethru yr 6
14EDMDylan HollowayF2251322.21.9+0.06fairthru yr 6
15TORRodion AmirovF000.01.8-0.64BUSTthru yr 6
16MTLKaiden GuhleD208691.91.3+0.14fairthru yr 6
17CHILukas ReichelF198621.51.6-0.03fairthru yr 6
18NJDDawson MercerF4102093.81.5+0.35great valuethru yr 6
19NYRBraden SchneiderD368872.91.3+0.30great valuethru yr 6
20NJDShakir MukhamadullinD83220.71.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
21CBJEgor ChinakhovF2471132.21.5+0.14fairthru yr 6
22WSHHendrix LapierreF158471.21.5-0.09fairthru yr 6
23PHITyson FoersterF1951001.81.5+0.07fairthru yr 6
24CGYConnor ZaryF191861.71.4+0.06fairthru yr 6
25COLJustin BarronD208521.71.0+0.17fairthru yr 6
26STLJake NeighboursF2801322.51.3+0.25fairthru yr 6
27ANAJacob PerreaultF100.01.3-0.55BUSTthru yr 6
28OTTRidly GreigF2471042.11.2+0.21fairthru yr 6
29VGKBrendan BrissonF2790.21.1-0.39poor valuethru yr 6
30DALMavrik BourqueF156661.31.0+0.08fairthru yr 6
31SJSOzzy WiesblattF4560.31.0-0.32poor valuethru yr 6
32DETWilliam WallinderD000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 6
33OTTRoby JarventieF1010.10.8-0.41poor valuethru yr 6
34BUFJJ PeterkaF3201973.20.8+0.49great valuethru yr 6
35LAKHelge GransD610.00.7-0.36poor valuethru yr 6
36ANASam ColangeloF44140.30.7-0.18fairthru yr 6
37MINMarat KhusnutdinovF168491.20.7+0.18fairthru yr 6
38SJSThomas BordeleauF44180.40.7-0.16fairthru yr 6
39MINRyan O'RourkeD000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 6
40WPGDaniel TorgerssonF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 6
41CARNoel GunlerF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 6
42NSHLuke EvangelistaF2531422.40.7+0.42great valuethru yr 6
43FLAEmil HeinemanF148491.10.7+0.16fairthru yr 6
44OTTTyler KlevenD166311.20.6+0.20fairthru yr 6
45LAKBrock FaberD2421272.80.6+0.49great valuethru yr 6
46CHIDrew CommessoG50.00.3-0.17fairthru yr 6
47MTLLuke TuchF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 6
48MTLJan MysakF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 6
49ARIForfeitedF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 6
50CGYYan KuznetsovD58120.40.6-0.09fairthru yr 6
51DETTheodor NiederbachF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 6
52PITJoel BlomqvistG150.10.3-0.11fairthru yr 6
53CARVasily PonomarevF920.10.6-0.32poor valuethru yr 6
54PHIEmil AndraeD107200.80.6+0.08fairthru yr 6
55DETCross HanasF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 6
56SJSTristen RobinsF300.00.6-0.34poor valuethru yr 6
57TBLJack FinleyF4550.30.5-0.16fairthru yr 6
58BOSMason LohreiD191721.90.6+0.39great valuethru yr 6
59TORRoni HirvonenF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 6
60NYRWill CuylleF2491042.10.5+0.44great valuethru yr 6
61OTTEgor SokolovF1320.10.5-0.26poor valuethru yr 6
62TBLGage GoncalvesF136531.10.5+0.25fairthru yr 6
63DETDonovan SebrangoD4480.30.5-0.08fairthru yr 6
64TORTopi NiemelaD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 6
65MINDaemon HuntD4570.30.4-0.07fairthru yr 6
66LAKKasper SimontaivalF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 6
67ANAIan MooreD70130.50.4+0.06fairthru yr 6
68VGKLukas CormierD210.00.4-0.25poor valuethru yr 6
69CARAlexander NikishinD81330.80.4+0.21fairthru yr 6
70DETEemil ViroD000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 6
71OTTLeevi MeriläinenG340.70.2+0.21fairthru yr 6
72CGYJeremie PoirierD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 6
73NSHLuke ProkopD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 6
74FLATy SmilanicF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 6
75COLJean-Luc FoudyF1310.10.3-0.18fairthru yr 6
76SJSDanil GushchinF1850.10.3-0.13fairthru yr 6
77PITCalle ClangG00.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 6
78CBJSamuel KnazkoD200.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
79CHILandon SlaggertF102170.60.3+0.17fairthru yr 6
80CGYJake BoltmannD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
81CHIWyatt KaiserD175351.30.3+0.40great valuethru yr 6
82VANJoni JurmoD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
83LAKAlex LaferriereF2401092.10.3+0.53STEALthru yr 6
84NJDNico DawsG550.60.2+0.19fairthru yr 6
85TBLMaxim GroshevF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 6
86STLDylan PetersonF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 6
87FLAJustin SourdifF82360.70.3+0.21fairthru yr 6
88STLLeo LoofD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 6
89BOSTrevor KuntarF100.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 6
90NYIAlexander LjungkrantzF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 6
91VGKJackson HallumF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 6
92NYROliver TarnstromF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 6
93TBLJack ThompsonD34100.30.2+0.06fairthru yr 6
94PHIZayde WisdomF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
95FLAMike BenningD1860.20.2-0.04fairthru yr 6
96CGYDaniil ChechelevG00.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
97DETSam StangeF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
98SJSBrandon CoeF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
99NJDJaromir PytlikF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 6
100EDMCarter SavoieF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 6
101NSHAdam WilsbyD81210.70.2+0.24fairthru yr 6
102MTLJack SmithF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 6
103NYRDylan GarandG30.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
104ANAThimo NicklD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
105FLAZachary UensD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
106TORArtur AkhtyamovG30.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
107DETJan BednarG00.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
108PITLukas SvejkovskyF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 6
109MTLBlake BiondiF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 6
110CHIMichael KrutilD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
111ARIMitchell MillerD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
112LAKJuho MarkkanenG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
113VANJackson KunzF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
114CBJMikael PyyhtiaF71110.40.2+0.12fairthru yr 6
115CARZion NybeckF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
116TBLEamon PowellD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
117WSHBogdan TrineyevF200.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
118COLColby AmbrosioF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
119STLTanner DickinsonF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
120NJDEthan EdwardsD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
121NYIAlex JefferiesF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
122TORWilliam VilleneuveD300.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
123DALAntonio StrangesF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
124MTLSean FarrellF610.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
125VGKJesper VikmanG00.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
126EDMTyler TullioF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
127NYREvan VierlingF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
128LAKMartin ChromiakF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
129ANAArtyom GalimovF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
130NJDArtem ShlaineF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
131BUFMatteo CostantiniF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
132DETAlex CottonD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
133WPGAnton JohannessonD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
134NYRBrett BerardF48100.30.2+0.08fairthru yr 6
135PHIElliot DesnoyersF400.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
136MTLJakub DobesG590.90.1+0.42great valuethru yr 6
137TORDmitry OvchinnikovF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
138EDMMaksim BerezkinF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
139COLRyder RolstonF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
140LAKBen MeehanD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
141CHIIsaak PhillipsD59120.40.2+0.18fairthru yr 6
142ARICarson BantleF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
143CGYRyan FrancisF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
144VANJacob TruscottD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
145CBJOle Julian Bjorgvik-HolmD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
146MINPavel NovakF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
147TBLJaydon DureauF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
148WSHBear HughesF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
149PITRaivis AnsonsF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
150STLMatthew KesselD99130.60.1+0.28great valuethru yr 6
151BOSMason LangenbrunnerD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
152NYIWilliam DufourF100.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
153FLAKasper PuutioD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
154DALDaniel LjungmanF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
155OTTEric EngstrandF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
156DETKyle AucoinD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
157TBLNick CaponeF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
158OTTPhilippe DaoustF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
159CARLucas MercuriF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
160ANAAlbin SundsvikF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
161NJDBenjamin BaumgartnerF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
162DALYauheni AksiantsiukF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
163STLWill CranleyG00.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
164WPGTyrel BauerD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
165NYRMatt RempeF85110.50.2+0.21fairthru yr 6
166NSHLuke ReidD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
167COLNils AmanF132290.90.2+0.36great valuethru yr 6
168TORVeeti MiettinenF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
169EDMFilip EngarasF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
170PITChase YoderF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
171MTLAlexander GordinF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
172CHIChad YetmanF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
173ARIFilip BarklundF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
174CGYRory KerinsF940.10.1-0.05fairthru yr 6
175VANDmitry ZlodeyevF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
176CBJSamuel JohannessonD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
177TORAxel RindellD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
178PHIConnor McClennonF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
179WSHGarin BjorklundG00.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
180TORJoe MillerF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
181OTTCole ReinhardtF77170.50.1+0.23fairthru yr 6
182BOSRiley DuranF200.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
183NYIMatias RajaniemiD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
184VGKNoah EllisD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
185DALRémi PoirierG00.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
186TBLAmir MiftakhovG00.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
187DETKienan DraperF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
188CHILouis CrevierD134321.10.1+0.43great valuethru yr 6
189TORJohn FuscoD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
190LAKAatu JamsenF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
191VANViktor PerssonD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
192ARIElliot EkefjardF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
193BUFAlbert LyckasenD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
194STLNoah BeckD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
195TORWyatt SchingoetheF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
196SJSAlex YoungF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
197NYRHugo OllasG00.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
198FLAElliot EkmarkF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
199CARAlexander PashinF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
200EDMJeremias LindewallF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
201SJSAdam RaskaF1300.10.1-0.05fairthru yr 6
202NSHGunnarwolfe FontaineF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
203DETChase BradleyF200.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
204ARIBen McCartneyF200.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
205CGYIlya SolovyovD45120.40.1+0.17fairthru yr 6
206SJSLinus ObergF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
207ANAEthan BowenF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
208CARRonan SeeleyD100.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
209NSHChase McLaneF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
210SJSTimofey SpitserovF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
211WSHOskar MagnussonF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
212FLADevon LeviG390.40.1+0.21fairthru yr 6
213TORRyan TverbergF200.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
214NYIHenrik TikkanenG00.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
215VGKMaxim MarushevF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
216BUFJakub KonecnyF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
217TBLDeclan McDonnellF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77