IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2021 draft class224 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1BUFOwen PowerD3231403.43.9-0.06fairthru yr 5
2SEAMatty BeniersF3311963.33.4-0.02fairthru yr 5
3ANAMason McTavishF3041813.03.1-0.02fairthru yr 5
4NJDLuke HughesD2231282.82.3+0.07fairthru yr 5
5CBJKent JohnsonF2741382.51.9+0.10fairthru yr 5
6DETSimon EdvinssonD175601.72.3-0.14fairthru yr 5
7SJSWilliam EklundF2521632.61.9+0.12fairthru yr 5
8LAKBrandt ClarkeD185812.02.0-0.01fairthru yr 5
9ARIDylan GuentherF2271832.71.6+0.20fairthru yr 5
10OTTTyler BoucherF000.01.5-0.60BUSTthru yr 5
11ARIForfeitedF000.01.5-0.60BUSTthru yr 5
12CBJCole SillingerF3671403.01.5+0.27great valuethru yr 5
13CGYMatt CoronatoF1921011.81.5+0.08fairthru yr 5
14BUFIsak RosenF52110.31.4-0.38poor valuethru yr 5
15DETSebastian CossaG10.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 5
16NYRBrennan OthmannF4450.31.2-0.39poor valuethru yr 5
17STLZachary BolducF175751.51.1+0.10fairthru yr 5
18WPGChaz LuciusF000.01.1-0.51BUSTthru yr 5
19NSHFedor SvechkovF122340.91.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
20MINJesper WallstedtG400.70.2+0.25great valuethru yr 5
21BOSFabian LysellF1230.11.0-0.45poor valuethru yr 5
22EDMXavier BourgaultF200.01.0-0.50BUSTthru yr 5
23DALWyatt JohnstonF3282633.81.0+0.48great valuethru yr 5
24FLAMackie SamoskevichF156631.31.0+0.10fairthru yr 5
25CBJCorson CeulemansD000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 5
26MINCarson LambosD100.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 5
27NSHZachary L'HeureuxF87200.60.8-0.10fairthru yr 5
28COLOskar OlaussonF400.00.8-0.42poor valuethru yr 5
29NJDChase StillmanF000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 5
30VGKZach DeanF900.00.7-0.37poor valuethru yr 5
31MTLLogan MaillouxD75180.60.6+0.02fairthru yr 5
32CHINolan AllanD4380.30.5-0.12fairthru yr 5
33BUFProkhor PoltapovF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 5
34ANAOlen ZellwegerD164511.50.5+0.34great valuethru yr 5
35SEARyker EvansD176511.50.5+0.36great valuethru yr 5
36DETShai BuiumD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 5
37ARIJosh DoanF144801.40.5+0.32great valuethru yr 5
38VGKDaniil ChaykaD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 5
39OTTZack OstapchukF122110.70.5+0.10fairthru yr 5
40CARScott MorrowD45120.40.4-0.02fairthru yr 5
41VANDanila KlimovichF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 5
42LAKFrancesco PinelliF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 5
43ARIIlya FedotovF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 5
44CARAleksi HeimosalmiD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 5
45CGYWilliam StromgrenF300.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 5
46PHISamu TuomaalaF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 5
47DALLogan StankovenF183961.70.4+0.41great valuethru yr 5
48DALArtem GrushnikovD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 5
49OTTBen RogerD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 5
50WPGNikita ChibrikovF1640.10.4-0.19fairthru yr 5
51CARVille KoivunenF47140.30.4-0.02fairthru yr 5
52NYIAatu RätyF114280.80.4+0.19fairthru yr 5
53BUFAleksandr KisakovF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 5
54MINJack PeartD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 5
55WSHVincent IorioD3640.20.4-0.09fairthru yr 5
56FLAEvan NauseD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 5
57TORMatthew KniesF2401602.50.3+0.57STEALthru yr 5
58PITTristan BrozF100.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 5
59LAKSamuel HeleniusF103160.60.3+0.16fairthru yr 5
60ARIJ.J. MoserD3381153.10.3+0.63STEALthru yr 5
61COLSean BehrensD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 5
62CHIColton DachF86200.60.3+0.16fairthru yr 5
63MTLRiley KidneyF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 5
64MTLOliver KapanenF100390.80.3+0.26great valuethru yr 5
65NYRJayden GrubbeF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 5
66ANASasha PastujovF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 5
67SEARyan WintertonF89190.60.2+0.19fairthru yr 5
68NJDSamu SalminenF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 5
69CBJStanislav SvozilD210.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
70DETCarter MazurF900.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
71STLSimon RobertssonF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 5
72NSHAnton OlssonD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 5
73DALAyrton MartinoF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
74OTTOliver JohanssonF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
75NYRRyder KorczakF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
76ANATyson HindsD600.00.2-0.11fairthru yr 5
77CGYCole HuckinsF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
78PHIAleksei KolosovG210.10.1-0.00fairthru yr 5
79DALJustin ErtelF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
80WSHBrent JohnsonD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
81SJSBenjamin GaudreauG00.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
82WPGDmitry KuzminD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 5
83CARPatrik HamrlaG00.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
84LAKKirill KirsanovD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 5
85BOSBrett HarrisonF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 5
86MINCaedan BankierF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 5
87MTLDmitri KostenkoD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
88BUFStiven SardarianF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 5
89CGYCameron WhynotD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
90EDMLuca MunzenbergerD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
91CHITaige HardingD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
92COLAndrei BuyalskyF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
93NYITristan LennoxG10.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
94CARAidan HreschukD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
95BUFJosh BloomF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
96TBLRoman SchmidtD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
97BUFOlivier NadeauF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
98ANAJosh LopinaF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
99SEAVille OttavainenD110.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
100NJDJakub MalekG00.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
101CBJGuillaume RichardD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
102VGKJakub BrabenecF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 5
103SJSGannon LaroqueD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
104NYRBrody LambF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 5
105CHIEthan Del MastroD4570.30.1+0.14fairthru yr 5
106NYRKalle VaisanenF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 5
107ARIEmil LillebergD163361.30.1+0.48great valuethru yr 5
108CHIVictor StjernborgF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 5
109CARJackson BlakeF162871.50.1+0.52STEALthru yr 5
110PHIBrian ZanettiD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
111DALConner RouletteF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 5
112NYRTalyn BoykoG00.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
113MTLWilliam TrudeauD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
114DETRedmond SavageF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
115NSHRyan UfkoD19110.20.1+0.09fairthru yr 5
116EDMJake ChiassonF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
117BOSPhilip SvedebackG00.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
118MINKyle MastersD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
119WSHJoaquim LemayD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
120FLAVladislav LukashevichD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
121SJSEthan CardwellF1320.10.1-0.04fairthru yr 5
122ARIRasmus KorhonenG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
123OTTCarson LatimerF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
124NSHJack MatierD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
125NYICameron BergF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
126TBLDylan DukeF310.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
127MINJosh PillarF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
128VGKJakub DemekF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
129NJDTopias VilenD200.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
130ANASean TschigerlF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
131SEAJacob MelansonF3750.20.1+0.07fairthru yr 5
132CBJNikolai MakarovD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
133CBJJames MalatestaF1340.10.1-0.02fairthru yr 5
134DETLiam Dower NilssonF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
135SJSArtem GuryevD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
136CARRobert OrrF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
137VANAku KoskenvuoG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
138DALJack BarD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
139ARIManix LandryF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
140VANJonathan MyrenbergD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
141CGYCole JordanD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
142MTLDaniil SobolevD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
143DALJacob HolmesD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
144NYRJaroslav ChmelarF2860.20.1+0.06fairthru yr 5
145STLTyson GallowayD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
146WPGDmitri RashevskyF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
147CARJustin RobidasF430.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
148ANAGage AlexanderG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
149BOSOskar JellvikF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
150MTLJoshua RoyF38110.30.1+0.13fairthru yr 5
151WSHHaakon HaneltF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
152FLAKirill GerasimyukG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
153TORTy VoitF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
154PITIsaac BelliveauD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
155DETOscar PlandowskiD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
156SJSMax McCueF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
157NYIEetu LiukasF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
158PHITy MurchisonD300.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
159BUFViljami MarjalaF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
160TBLCameron MacdonaldF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
161BUFWilliam Von Barnekow LofbergF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
162ANAKyle KukkonenF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
163SEASemyon VyazovoiG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
164NJDViktor HurtigD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
165CBJBen BoydF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
166DETPasquale ZitoF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
167SJSLiam GilmartinF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
168CGYJack BeckF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
169VANHugo GabrielsonD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
170CARBryce MontgomeryD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
171ARICal ThomasD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
172CHIIlya SafonovF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
173CGYLucas CionaF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
174PHIEthan SamsonD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
175DALFrancesco ArcuriF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
176WSHDru KrebsD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
177SJSTheo JacobssonF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
178VANConnor LockhartF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
179NSHSimon KnakF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
180EDMMatvey PetrovF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
181BOSRyan MastD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
182MINNate BenoitD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
183WSHChase ClarkG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
184FLAJakub KosF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
185TORVyacheslav PeksaG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
186EDMShane LachanceF100.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
187CARNikita QuappG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
188BUFNikita NovikovD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
189NYIAleksi MalinenD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
190VGKArtur CholachD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
191MTLXavier SimoneauF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
192TBLAlex GagneD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
193BUFTyson KozakF67110.40.1+0.24fairthru yr 5
194PITRyan McClearyD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
195SEAJustin JanickeF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
196TBLDaniil PylenkovD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
197CBJMartin RysavyF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
198STLIvan VorobyovF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
199SJSEvgenii KashnikovD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
200CARYegor NaumovG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
201VANLucas ForsellF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
202OTTChandler RomeoD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
203NJDZakhar BardakovF60100.40.1+0.22fairthru yr 5
204CHIConnor KelleyD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
205CGYArsenii SergeevG10.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 5
206PHIOwen McLaughlinF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
207DALAlbert SjobergF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
208NYRHank KempfD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
209CARNikita GuslistovF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
210FLABraden HacheD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
211TBLCooper FlintonF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
212EDMMaximus WannerD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
213BOSAndre GasseauF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
214MTLJoe VrbeticG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
215PITDaniel LaatschD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
216CHIJalen LuypenF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
217BOSTy GallagherD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
218PITKirill TankovF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
219CARJoel NystromD38100.30.1+0.17fairthru yr 5
220COLTaylor MakarF1200.10.1-0.01fairthru yr 5
221NYITomas MachuD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
222VGKCarl LindbomG80.10.0+0.03fairthru yr 5
223ARISam LipkinF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
224TBLNiko HuuhtanenF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77