IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2022 draft class225 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1MTLJuraj SlafkovskýF2821842.93.6-0.09fairthru yr 4
2NJDSimon NemecD155491.42.4-0.22fairthru yr 4
3ARILogan CooleyF2111522.32.4-0.01fairthru yr 4
4SEAShane WrightF169781.52.1-0.14fairthru yr 4
5PHICutter GauthierF1591141.81.4+0.09fairthru yr 4
6CBJDavid JiricekD85130.61.6-0.33poor valuethru yr 4
7CHIKevin KorchinskiD105190.81.3-0.17fairthru yr 4
8DETMarco KasperF159561.21.3-0.01fairthru yr 4
9BUFMatt SavoieF87380.81.3-0.17fairthru yr 4
10ANAPavel MintyukovD204691.90.7+0.32great valuethru yr 4
11ARIConor GeekieF66170.51.0-0.22fairthru yr 4
12CBJDenton MateychukD120441.20.7+0.15fairthru yr 4
13CHIFrank NazarF122681.20.9+0.09fairthru yr 4
14WPGRutger McGroartyF3290.20.8-0.30poor valuethru yr 4
15VANJonathan LekkerimäkiF3790.30.8-0.26poor valuethru yr 4
16BUFNoah OstlundF68270.60.7-0.07fairthru yr 4
17NSHJoakim KemellF1830.10.7-0.32poor valuethru yr 4
18DALLian BichselD88170.70.7-0.01fairthru yr 4
19MINLiam OhgrenF97250.70.6+0.02fairthru yr 4
20WSHIvan MiroshnichenkoF52130.40.6-0.14fairthru yr 4
21PITOwen PickeringD2930.20.5-0.21fairthru yr 4
22ANANathan GaucherF300.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 4
23STLJimmy SnuggerudF77550.90.6+0.09fairthru yr 4
24MINDanila YurovF73270.60.6-0.00fairthru yr 4
25CHISam RinzelD63190.60.4+0.07fairthru yr 4
26MTLFilip MesarF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 4
27SJSFilip BystedtF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 4
28BUFJiri KulichF75290.60.5+0.07fairthru yr 4
29ARIMaveric LamoureuxD2040.20.4-0.13fairthru yr 4
30WPGBrad LambertF3180.20.4-0.11fairthru yr 4
31TBLIsaac HowardF2950.20.4-0.12fairthru yr 4
32EDMReid SchaeferF4780.30.3-0.03fairthru yr 4
33MTLOwen BeckF2820.20.3-0.11fairthru yr 4
34SJSCameron LundF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 4
35SEAJagger FirkusF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 4
36ARIArtem DudaD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 4
37WSHRyan ChesleyD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 4
38TORFraser MintenF107400.90.3+0.28great valuethru yr 4
39CHIPaul LudwinskiF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 4
40DETDylan JamesF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 4
41BUFTopias LeinonenG00.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
42ANANoah WarrenD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 4
43ARIJulian LutzF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 4
44CBJLuca Del Bel BelluzF30100.20.3-0.02fairthru yr 4
45SJSMattias HavelidD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
46NJDSeamus CaseyD1680.20.2+0.01fairthru yr 4
47MINHunter HaightF920.10.2-0.14fairthru yr 4
48VGKMatyas SapovalivF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 4
49SEAJani NymanF40130.30.2+0.05fairthru yr 4
50DALChristian KyrouD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
51LAKJack HughesF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 4
52DETDmitri BuchelnikovF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 4
53ANATristan LuneauD1440.10.2-0.05fairthru yr 4
54BOSMatthew PoitrasF69270.60.2+0.21fairthru yr 4
55WPGElias SalomonssonD3250.20.2+0.03fairthru yr 4
56MINRieger LorenzF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
57CHIRyan GreeneF83290.70.2+0.27great valuethru yr 4
58SEANiklas KokkoG00.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
59CGYTopi RonniF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 4
60CARGleb TrikozovF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
61SEADavid GoyetteF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
62MTLLane HutsonD1661462.80.2+0.66STEALthru yr 4
63NYRAdam SykoraF1140.10.1-0.04fairthru yr 4
64OTTFilip NordbergD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 4
65NYICalle OdeliusD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
66CHIGavin HayesF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 4
67ARIMiko MatikkaF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 4
68SEATy NelsonD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 4
69PHIDevin KaplanF100.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 4
70WSHAlexander SuzdalevF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 4
71CARAlexander PerevalovF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 4
72OTTOskar PetterssonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
73STLAleksanteri KaskimakiF500.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
74BUFViktor NeuchevF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
75MTLVinzenz RohrerF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
76SJSMichael FisherD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
77WPGDanil ZhilkinF610.00.1-0.04fairthru yr 4
78NYIQuinn FinleyF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
79VGKJordan GustafsonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
80VANElias PetterssonD98130.60.1+0.33great valuethru yr 4
81CHISamuel SavoieF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
82NSHAdam IngramF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
83DALGeorge FegarasD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
84NSHKasper KulonummiD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
85WSHLudwig PerssonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
86TBLLucas EdmondsF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
87OTTTomas HamaraD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
88STLMichael BuchingerD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
89MINMichael MilneF100.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
90CHIAidan ThompsonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
91SEABen MacDonaldF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
92MTLAdam EngstromD1510.10.1+0.01fairthru yr 4
93FLAMarek AlscherD430.10.1-0.01fairthru yr 4
94ARIJeremy LangloisD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
95TORNicholas MoldenhauerF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
96CBJJordan DumaisF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
97NYRBryce McConnell-BarkerF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
98NYIIsaiah GeorgeD3760.30.1+0.15fairthru yr 4
99WPGGarrett BrownD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
100SEATyson JugnauthD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
101CARSimon ForsmarkD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
102NJDTyler BrennanG00.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
103LAKKenny ConnorsF200.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
104OTTStephen HallidayF30110.20.1+0.12fairthru yr 4
105DETAnton JohanssonD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
106BUFMats LindgrenD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
107ANABen KingF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
108SJSMason BeaupitG00.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
109CBJKirill DolzhenkovF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
110NJDDaniil OrlovD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
111NYRNoah LabaF74240.60.1+0.30great valuethru yr 4
112VANDaimon GardnerF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
113DETAmadeus LombardiF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
114NSHCole O'HaraF110.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
115DALGavin WhiteD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
116LAKAngus BoothD110.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
117BOSCole SpicerF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
118PITSergei MurashovG50.00.0+0.01fairthru yr 4
119BOSDans LocmelisF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
120STLArseni KoromyslovD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
121MINRyan HealeyD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
122TORDennis HildebyG260.50.0+0.30great valuethru yr 4
123SEATucker RobertsonF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
124CARCruz LuciusF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
125FLALudvig JanssonD410.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 4
126NJDCharlie LeddyD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
127MTLCedrick GuindonF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
128VGKCameron WhiteheadG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
129DETMaximilian KilpinenF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
130MTLJared DavidsonF1010.10.1-0.01fairthru yr 4
131ARIMatthew MordenD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
132BOSFrederic BrunetD100.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
133PHIAlex BumpF1790.20.1+0.08fairthru yr 4
134BUFVsevolod KomarovD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
135TORNikita GrebenkinF62140.40.1+0.24fairthru yr 4
136OTTJorian DonovanD200.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
137DETTnias MathurinD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
138CBJSergei IvanovG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
139ANAConnor HvidstonF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
140SJSJake FurlongD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
141NJDPetr HauserF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
142NYIMatthew MaggioF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
143OTTCameron O'NeillF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
144VANTy YoungG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
145VGKPatrick GuayF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
146NSHGraham SwardD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
147DALMaxim MayorovG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
148LAKOtto SalinD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
149WSHJake KarabelaF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
150PITZam PlanteF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
151OTTKevin ReidlerG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
152STLMarc-Andre GaudetD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
153MINDavid SpacekD200.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
154ANAMichael CallowF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
155CGYParker BellF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
156CARVladimir GrudininD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
157FLASandis VilmanisF1950.10.0+0.07fairthru yr 4
158EDMSamuel JonssonG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
159NYRVictor ManciniD55110.40.0+0.26great valuethru yr 4
160TBLNick MalikG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
161NYRMaxim BarbashevF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
162MTLEmmett CroteauG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
163ARIMaksymilian SzuberD100.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
164SEABarrett HallF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
165PHIHunter McDonaldD110.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
166NJDJosh FilmonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
167PITNolan CollinsD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
168OTTTheo WallbergD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
169LAKJared WrightF2340.10.0+0.09fairthru yr 4
170BUFJake RichardF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
171CARJakub VondrasG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
172SJSJoey MuldowneyF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
173CHIDominic JamesF43150.30.0+0.22fairthru yr 4
174NYIDaylan KueflerF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
175WPGFabian WagnerF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
176VANJackson DorringtonD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
177VGKBen HemmerlingF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
178ANAVyacheslav ButeyetsG10.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
179DALMatthew SeminoffF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
180LAKJack SparkesD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
181WSHRyan HoferF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
182PITLuke DevlinF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
183BOSReid DyckG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
184STLLandon SimF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
185MINServac PetrovskyF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
186FLAJosh DaviesF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
187BUFGustav KarlssonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
188CHINils JuntorpF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
189FLATyler MuszelikG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
190EDMNikita YevseyevD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
191NYRZakary KarpaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
192TBLConnor KurthF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
193COLChris RomaineD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
194MTLPetteri NurmiD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
195SJSEli BarnettD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
196SEAKyle JacksonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
197PHISanteri SulkuF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
198NJDArtem BaraboshaD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
199CHIRiku TohilaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
200BOSJackson EdwardD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
201DETOwen MehlenbacherF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
202BUFJoel Ratkovic BerndtssonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
203CBJJames FisherF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
204ARIAdam ZlnkaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
205CARAlexander PelevinD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
206OTTTyson DyckF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
207WPGDomenic DiVincentiisG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
208VANKirill KudryavtsevD520.00.0+0.01fairthru yr 4
209VGKAbram WiebeD400.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
210NSHBen StrindenF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
211BUFLinus SjodinF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
212DETBrennan AliF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
213WSHDavid GucciardiD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
214FLALiam ArnsbyF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
215LAKKaleb LawrenceF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
216MTLMiguël TourignyD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
217SJSReese LaubachF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
218TORBrandon LisowskyF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
219CGYCade LittlerF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
220PHIAlexis GendronF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
221FLAJack DevineF600.00.0-0.00fairthru yr 4
222EDMJoel MaattaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
223TBLDyllan GillD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
224TBLKlavs VeinbergsF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
225COLIvan ZhigalovG00.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77