IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2023 draft class223 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1CHIConnor BedardF2192032.82.7+0.02fairthru yr 3
2ANALeo CarlssonF2011412.21.8+0.08fairthru yr 3
3CBJAdam FantilliF2131402.21.6+0.12fairthru yr 3
4SJSWill SmithF1431041.61.4+0.04fairthru yr 3
5MTLDavid ReinbacherD210.00.9-0.45poor valuethru yr 3
6ARIDmitriy SimashevD000.00.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 3
7PHIMatvei MichkovF1611141.80.8+0.28great valuethru yr 3
8WSHRyan LeonardF84460.80.8+0.01fairthru yr 3
9DETNate DanielsonF2870.20.7-0.27poor valuethru yr 3
10STLDalibor DvorskyF73210.50.6-0.03fairthru yr 3
11VANTom WillanderD70210.60.4+0.11fairthru yr 3
12ARIDaniil ButF2970.20.5-0.19fairthru yr 3
13BUFZach BensonF2111011.90.5+0.41great valuethru yr 3
14PITBrayden YagerF300.00.5-0.30poor valuethru yr 3
15NSHMatthew WoodF77310.60.4+0.11fairthru yr 3
16CGYSamuel HonzekF2340.10.4-0.15fairthru yr 3
17DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaD68210.60.4+0.12fairthru yr 3
18WPGColby BarlowF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 3
19CHIOliver MooreF60230.50.3+0.11fairthru yr 3
20SEAEduard SaleF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 3
21MINCharlie StramelF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 3
22PHIOliver BonkD120.00.3-0.17fairthru yr 3
23NYRGabe PerreaultF54270.50.3+0.11fairthru yr 3
24NSHTanner MolendykD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 3
25STLOtto StenbergF32100.20.3-0.02fairthru yr 3
26SJSQuentin MustyF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 3
27COLCalum RitchieF72310.60.2+0.20fairthru yr 3
28TOREaston CowanF66290.60.2+0.19fairthru yr 3
29STLTheo LindsteinD1740.10.2-0.02fairthru yr 3
30CARBradly NadeauF1540.10.2-0.07fairthru yr 3
31COLMikhail GulyayevD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 3
32VGKDavid EdstromF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 3
33ANANico MyatovicF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 3
34CBJGavin BrindleyF57130.40.1+0.17fairthru yr 3
35CHIAdam GajanG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
36SJSKasper HalttunenF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 3
37TBLEthan GauthierF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 3
38ARIMichael HrabalG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
39BUFAnton WahlbergF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
40WSHAndrew CristallF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
41DETTrey AugustineG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
42DETAndrew GibsonD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 3
43NSHFelix NilssonF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
44CHIRoman KantserovF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
45BUFMaxim StrbakD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 3
46NSHKalan LindF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
47DETBrady ClevelandD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 3
48CGYEtienne MorinD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 3
49NYIDanny NelsonF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 3
50SEACarson RehkopfF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 3
51PHICarson BjarnasonG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
52SEAOscar Fisker MolgaardF1320.10.1+0.00fairthru yr 3
53MINRasmus KumpulainenF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 3
54LAKJakub DvorakD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 3
55CHIMartin MisiakF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 3
56EDMBeau AkeyD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 3
57SEALukas DragicevicD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 3
58NJDLenni HameenahoF3380.20.1+0.13fairthru yr 3
59ANACarey TerranceF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 3
60ANADamian ClaraG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
61DALTristan BertucciD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 3
62CARFelix Unger SorumF110.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
63FLAGracyn SawchynF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
64MINRiley HeidtF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
65ANACoulson PitreF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
66CBJWilliam WhitelawF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
67CHINick LardisF41150.30.0+0.21fairthru yr 3
68NSHJesse KiiskinenF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
69MTLJacob FowlerG170.40.0+0.27great valuethru yr 3
70ARIJonathan CastagnaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
71SJSBrandon SvobodaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
72ARINoel NordhF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
73DETNoah Dower NilssonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
74STLQuinton BurnsD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
75VANHunter BrzustewiczD3570.30.0+0.18fairthru yr 3
76STLJuraj PekarcikF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
77VGKMathieu CatafordF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
78LAKKoehn ZiemmerF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
79DALBrad GardinerF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
80CGYAydar SunievF710.00.0+0.01fairthru yr 3
81ARITanner LudtkeF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
82WPGZach NehringF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
83NSHDylan MacKinnonD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
84SEACaden PriceD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
85ANAYegor SidorovF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
86BUFGavin McCarthyD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
87PHIEgor ZavraginG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
88ARIVadim MorozF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
89VANSawyer MynioD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
90NYRDrew FortescueD920.10.0+0.04fairthru yr 3
91PITEmil PieniniemiD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
92BOSChristopher PelosiF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
93CHIJiri FelcmanF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
94CARJayden PerronF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
95PHIDenver BarkeyF43170.40.0+0.24fairthru yr 3
96VGKArttu KarkiD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
97ANAKonnor SmithD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
98CBJAndrew StrathmannD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
99CHIAlex PharandF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
100CARAlexander RykovF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
101MTLFlorian XhekajF510.00.0+0.01fairthru yr 3
102ARITerrell GoldsmithD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
103PHICole KnubleF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
104WSHPatrick ThomasF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
105VANTy MuellerF810.00.0+0.02fairthru yr 3
106STLJakub StanclF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
107VANVilmer AlrikssonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
108OTTHoyt StanleyD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
109BUFEthan MiedemaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
110MTLBogdan KonyushkovD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
111NSHJoey WillisF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
112CGYJaden LipinskiF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
113NYIJesse NurmiF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
114CBJLuca PinelliF300.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
115TBLJayson ShaugabayF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
116SEAAndrei LoshkoF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
117DETLarry KeenanD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
118LAKHampton SlukynskyG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
119VANMatthew PerkinsF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
120PHIAlex CiernikF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
121NSHJuha JatkolaG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
122NJDCam SquiresF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
123SJSLuca CagnoniD920.10.0+0.05fairthru yr 3
124BOSBeckett HendricksonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
125DALAram MinnetianD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
126CARStanislav YarovoiF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
127FLAAlbert WikmanD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
128MTLQuentin MillerG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
129ANARodwin DionicioD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
130SJSAxel LandenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
131CHIMarcel MarcelF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
132SJSEric PohlkampD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
133MTLSam HarrisF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
134ARIMelker ThelinG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
135PHICarter SotheranD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
136WSHCam AllenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
137DETJack PhelanD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
138STLPaul FischerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
139CARCharles-Alexis LegaultD1220.10.0+0.06fairthru yr 3
140OTTMatthew AndonovskiD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
141BUFScott RatzlaffG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
142PITMikhail IlyinF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
143NSHSutter MuzzattiF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
144MTLYevgeni VolokhinG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
145NYIJustin GillF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
146WPGJacob JulienF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
147DETKevin BickerF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
148SEAKaden HammellD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
149MINAaron PionkD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
150LAKMatthew ManiaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
151WPGThomas MilicG30.00.0-0.00fairthru yr 3
152NYRRasmus LarssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
153TORHudson MalinoskiF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
154NJDChase CheslockD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
155COLNikita IshimnikovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
156CBJMelvin StrahlG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
157DALArno TiefenseeG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
158CARRuslan KhazheyevG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
159FLAOlof GliffordG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
161ANAVojtech PortD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
162ARISamu BauF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
163CARTimur MukhanovF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
164NJDCole BrownF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
165MTLFilip ErikssonF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
166ARICarsen MusserG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
167CHIMilton OscarsonF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
168SEAVisa VedenpaaG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
169DETRudy GuimondG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
170STLMatthew MayichD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
171VANAiden CelebriniD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
172PHIRyan MacPhersonF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
173BUFSean KeohaneD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
174PITCooper FosterF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
175NSHAustin RoestF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
176CGYYegor YegorovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
177NYIZachary SchulzD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
178NYRDylan RoobroeckF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
179TBLWarren ClarkD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
180SEAZeb ForsfjallF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
181MINKalem ParkerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
182LAKRyan ConmyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
183NYRTy HenricksF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
184EDMNathaniel DayG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
185TORNoah ChadwickD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
186NJDDaniil KarpovichD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
187COLJeremy HanzelD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
188BOSRyan WalshF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
189DALAngus MacDonellF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
190CARMichael EmersonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
191FLALuke CoughlinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
192VGKTuomas UronenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
193TBLJack HarveyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
194CBJOiva KeskinenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
195CHIJanne PeltonenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
196SJSDavid KleeF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
197MTLLuke MittelstadtD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
198FLAStepan ZvyaginF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
199PHIMatteo MannD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
200WSHBrett HylandF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
201DETEmmitt FinnieF82300.70.0+0.39great valuethru yr 3
202STLNikita SusuyevF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
203SJSYegor RimashevskiyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
204OTTOwen BecknerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
205BUFNorwin PanochaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
206WSHAntoine KellerG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
207OTTVladimir NikitinG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
208CGYAxel HurtigD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
209NYIDennis Good BoggD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
210WPGConnor LevisF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
211TBLEthan HayF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
212SEAZaccharya WisdomF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
213MINJames ClarkF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
214BOSCasper NassenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
215OTTNicholas VantassellF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
216EDMMatt CopponiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
217PITEmil JarventieF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
218NSHAiden FinkF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
219COLMaros JedlickaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
220BOSKristian KostadinskiD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
221DALSebastian BradshawF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
222CAREgor VelmakinG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
223PITKalle KangasD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
224CBJTyler PeddleF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77