IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2024 draft class225 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1SJSMacklin CelebriniF1521782.31.8+0.10fairthru yr 2
2CHIArtyom LevshunovD86300.81.1-0.10fairthru yr 2
3ANABeckett SenneckeF82600.91.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
4CBJCayden LindstromF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 2
5MTLIvan DemidovF84641.00.4+0.24fairthru yr 2
6UTATij IginlaF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 2
7OTTCarter YakemchukD420.00.3-0.19fairthru yr 2
8SEABerkly CattonF66170.50.4+0.03fairthru yr 2
9CGYZayne ParekhD38100.30.3+0.01fairthru yr 2
10NJDAnton SilayevD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 2
11SJSSam DickinsonD72140.50.2+0.22fairthru yr 2
12MINZeev BuiumD76260.70.2+0.29great valuethru yr 2
13PHIJett LuchankoF800.00.2-0.10fairthru yr 2
14BUFKonsta HeleniusF940.10.1-0.05fairthru yr 2
15DETMichael Brandsegg-NygårdF1410.10.1-0.03fairthru yr 2
16STLAdam JiricekD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 2
17WSHTerik ParascakF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 2
18CHISacha BoisvertF720.10.1-0.02fairthru yr 2
19VGKTrevor ConnellyF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
20NYICole EisermanF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
21MTLMichael HageF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
22NSHEgor SurinF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
23ANAStian SolbergD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 2
24UTACole BeaudoinF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
25BOSDean LetourneauF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
26LAKLiam GreentreeF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
27CHIMarek VanackerF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
28CGYMatvei GridinF37200.40.1+0.20fairthru yr 2
29DALEmil HemmingF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
30NYREJ EmeryD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
31TORBen DanfordD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
32EDMSam O'ReillyF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 2
33SJSIgor ChernyshovF28190.30.1+0.19fairthru yr 2
34CARDominik BadinkaD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
35ANALucas PetterssonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
36CBJCharlie ElickD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
37WPGAlfons FreijD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
38COLIlya NabokovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
39OTTGabriel EliassonD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
40SEAJulius MiettinenF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
41CGYAndrew BashaF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
42BUFAdam KleberD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
43WSHCole HutsonD14100.20.0+0.15fairthru yr 2
44PITHarrison BrunickeD910.10.0+0.04fairthru yr 2
45MINRyder RitchieF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
46PITTanner HoweF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
47DETMax PlanteF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
48STLColin RalphD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
49NJDMikhail YegorovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
50CARNikita ArtamonovF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
51PHIJack BerglundF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
52WSHLeon MuggliD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
53SJSLeo Sahlin WalleniusD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
54NYIJesse PulkkinenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
55NSHTeddy StigaF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
56STLLukas FischerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
57LAKCarter GeorgeG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
58FLALinus ErikssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
59PHISpencer GillD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
60CBJEvan GardnerG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
61NYIKamil BednarikF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
62CGYJacob BattagliaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
63SEANathan VilleneuveF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
64EDMEemil VinniG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
65UTAWill SkahanD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
66ANAMaxim MasséF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
67CHIJohn MustardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
68ANAEthan ProcyszynF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
69CARNoel FransénD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
70MTLAatos KoivuF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
71BUFBrodie ZiemerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
72CHIAnthony (AJ) SpellacyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
73SEAAlexis BernierD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
74CGYHenry MewsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
75WSHIlya ProtasF440.10.0+0.04fairthru yr 2
76COLWilliam ZellersF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
77NSHViggo GustafssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
78MTLLogan SawyerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
79ANATarin SmithD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
80DETOndrej BecherF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
81STLOndrej KosF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
82SJSCarson WetschF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
83VGKPavel MoysevichG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
84CGYKirill ZarubinG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
85NJDKasper PikkarainenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
86CBJLuca MarrelliD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
87NSHMiguel MarquesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
88SEAKim SaarinenG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
89UTATomas LavoieD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
90WSHEriks MateikoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
91NJDHerman TräffF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
92CHIJack PridhamF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
93VANMelvin FernströmF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
94NSHHiroki GojsicF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
95STLAdam JechoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
96UTAVeeti VäisänenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
97FLAMatvei ShuravinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
98UTAGregor BiberD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
99NSHJakub MilotaG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
100ANAAlexandre BlaisF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
101CBJTanner HenricksD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
102MTLOwen ProtzD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
103UTAGabe SmithF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
104OTTLucas EllinasF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
105SEAOllie JosephsonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
106CGYTrevor HoskinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
107PHIHeikki RuohonenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
108BUFLuke OsburnD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
109WPGKevin HeF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
110BOSElliott GroenewoldD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
111PITChase PietilaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
112OTTJavon MooreF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
113STLTomas MrsicF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
114WSHNicholas KempfG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
115NYIDmitry GamzinG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
116SJSChristian KirschG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
117OTTBlake MontgomeryF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
118TBLJan GolicicD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
119NYRRaoul BoilardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
120TORVictor JohanssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
121COLJake FisherF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
122MINAron KiviharjuD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
123BUFSimon-Pier BrunetD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
124CARAlexander SiryatskyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
125VANRiley PattersonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
126DETLandon MillerG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
127NSHViktor NorringerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
128TBLHagen BurrowsF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
129FLASimon ZetherF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
130MTLTyler ThorpeF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
131SJSColton RobertsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
132COLLouka CloutierG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
133CAROskar VuolletF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
134MTLMikus VecvanagsG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
135UTAOwen AllardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
136OTTEerik WalleniusD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
137COLIvan YuninG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
138CHIJoel SvenssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
139NJDMax GrahamF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
140MINSebastian SoiniD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
141SEAClarke CaswellF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
142MINChase WutzkeG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
143SJSNate MisskeyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
144DETJohn WhippleD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
145STLWilliam McIsaacD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
146NJDVeeti LouhivaaraG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
147NYIMarcus GidlöfG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
148PHINoah PowellF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
149TBLJoona SaarelainenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
150CGYLuke MisaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
151TORMiroslav HolinkaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
152TORAlexander PlesovskikhF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
153UTAAles CechD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
154BOSJonathan MorelloF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
155WPGMarkus LoponenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
156CARJustin PoirierF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
157TORTimofei ObvintsevG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
158DALNiilopekka MuhonenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
159NYRNathan AspinallF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
160EDMConnor ClattenburgF510.00.0+0.02fairthru yr 2
161COLMaxmilian CurranF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
162VANAnthony RomaniF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
163CHITy HenryD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
164LAKJared WoolleyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
165CBJLuke AshtonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
166MTLBen MerrillF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
167UTAVojtech HradecF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
168CARTimur KolD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
169FLAStepan GorbunovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
170CGYHunter LaingF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
171NJDMatyas MelovskyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
172BUFPatrick GearyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
173PHIIlya PautovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
174MINStevie LeskovarD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
175PITJoona VäisänenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
176DETCharlie ForslundF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
177CGYEric JamiesonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
178WSHPetr SikoraF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
179NYIXavier VeilleuxD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
180VGKTrent SwickF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
181TBLKaden PitreF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
182ANAAustin BurnevikF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
183EDMAlbin SundinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
184CARRoman ShokhrinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
185COLTory PitnerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
186BOSLoke JohanssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
187WPGKieron WaltonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
188CARFyodor AvramovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
189VANParker AlcosD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
190UTALudvig LaftonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
191NYRRico GredigF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
192EDMDalyn WakelyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
193FLAHunter St. MartinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
194SJSYaroslav KorostelyovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
195TBLJoe ConnorF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
196EDMWilliam NichollF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
197VGKLucas Van VlietF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
198LAKJames ReederF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
199TBLNoah SteenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
200TORMatt LaheyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
201FLADenis GabdrakhmanovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
202SEAJakub FibigrD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
203DETAustin BakerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
204BUFVasily ZelenovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
205PHIAustin MolineD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
206TBLHarrison MeneghinG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
207PITMac SwansonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
208DETFisher ScottD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
209STLAntoine DorionF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
210MTLMakar KhaninF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
211STLMatvei KorotkyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
212WSHMiroslav SatanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
213NSHErik PåhlssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
214ANADarels UljanskisD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
215COLChristian HumphreysF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
216TORSam McCueF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
217COLNikita PrishchepovF1000.00.0+0.04fairthru yr 2
218EDMBauer BerryD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
219BUFRyerson LeendersG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
220CARAndrey KrutovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
221VANBasile SansonnensD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
222DALWilliam SamuelssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
223PITFinn HardingD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
224MTLRasmus BergqvistD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
225TORNathan MayesD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77