IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2025 draft class224 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NYIMatthew SchaeferD82591.10.6+0.18fairthru yr 1
2SJSMichael MisaF45210.40.4-0.01fairthru yr 1
3CHIAnton FrondellF1290.10.3-0.11fairthru yr 1
4UTACaleb DesnoyersF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 1
5NSHBrady MartinF310.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 1
6PHIPorter MartoneF9100.10.1+0.05fairthru yr 1
7BOSJames HagensF210.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 1
8SEAJake O'BrienF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 1
9BUFRadim MrtkaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
10ANARoger McQueenF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 1
11PITBenjamin KindelF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 1
12PHIJack NesbittF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 1
13DETCarter BearF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 1
14CBJJackson SmithD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
15VANBraeden CootesF300.00.00.00fairthru yr 1
16NYIVictor EklundF110.00.0+0.00fairthru yr 1
17NYIKashawn AitchesonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
18CGYCole ReschnyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
19STLJustin CarbonneauF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
20CBJPyotr AndreyanovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
21NSHCameron ReidD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
22PITBill ZonnonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
23OTTLogan HenslerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
24PITWilliam HorcoffF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
25CHIVaclav NestrasilF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
26NSHRyker LeeF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
27WSHLynden LakovicF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
28WPGSascha BoumedienneD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
29CHIMason WestF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
30SJSJoshua RavensbergenG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
31LAKHenry BrzustewiczD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
32CGYCullen PotterF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
33SJSSimon (Haoxi) WangD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
34MTLAlexander ZharovskyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
35NSHJacob RombachD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
36SEABlake FiddlerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
37WSHMilton GastrinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
38PHICarter AmicoD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
39PITPeyton KettlesD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
40PHIJack MurtaghF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
41CARSemyon FrolovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
42NYIDaniil ProkhorovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
43NYRMalcolm SpenceF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
44DETEddie GenborgF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
45ANAEric NilsonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
46UTAMax PsenickaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
47VANAlexei MedvedevG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
48PHIShane VansaghiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
49CARCharlie CerratoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
50NJDConrad FondrkF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
51BOSWilliam MooreF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
52MINTheodor HallquisthD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
53SJSCole McKinneyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
54CGYTheo StockseliusF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
55VGKJakob Ihs WozniakF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
56TBLEthan CzataF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
57PHIMatthew GardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
58NSHJack IvankovicG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
59LAKVojtech CiharF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
60ANALasse BoeliusD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
61BOSLiam PetterssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
62CARIvan RyabkinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
63NJDBen KevanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
64TORTinus Luc KoblarF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
65VANKieren DervinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
66CHINathan BehmF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
67CARKurban LimatovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
68SEAWill ReynoldsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
69MTLHayden PaupanekisF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
70NYRSean BarnhillD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
71BUFDavid BedkowskiD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
72ANANoah ReadF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
73PITCharlton TretheweyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
74NYILuca RomanoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
75DETMichal PradelG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
76CBJMalte VassD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
77COLFrancesco Dell'elceD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
78UTAStepan HochF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
79BOSCooper SimpsonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
80CGYMaceo PhillipsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
81MTLBryce PickfordD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
82MTLArseni RadkovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
83EDMTommy LafreniereF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
84PITGabriel D'AigleG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
85VGKMateo NobertF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
86TORTyler HopkinsF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
87CARRoman BausovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
88LAKKristian EppersonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
89NYRArtyom GoncharD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
90NJDMason MoeF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
91PITBrady PeddleD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
92WPGOwen MartinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
93OTTBlake VanekF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
94DALCameron SchmidtF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
95SJSTeddy MutrynF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
96WSHMaxim SchaferF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
97OTTLucas BeckmanG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
98CHIJulius SumpfF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
99NJDTrenten BennettG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
100BOSVashek BlanarD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
101ANADrew SchockD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
102MINAdam BenakF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
103BUFMatous KucharcikF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
104ANAElijah NeuenschwanderG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
105PITTravis HayesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
106NYITomas PoletinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
107CHIParker HolmesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
108TBLBenjamin RautiainenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
109DETBrent SolomonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
110UTAYegor BorikovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
111NYRMikkel EriksenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
112FLAMads Kongsbak KlyvoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
113MTLJohn MooneyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
114NJDGustav HillstromF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
115SJSIlyas MagomedsultanovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
116BUFSamuel MelocheG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
117EDMDavid LewandowskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
118COLLinus FunckD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
119DETMichal SvrcekF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
120LAKCaeden HerringtonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
121MINLirim AmidovskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
122NSHAlex HuangD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
123MINCarter KlippensteinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
124SJSZachary SharpD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
125LAKJimmy LombardiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
126DALBrandon GorzynskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
127TBLAiden FosterF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
128FLAShea BuschF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
129FLAShamar MosesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
130PITRyan MillerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
131EDMAsher BarnettD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
132PHIMax WestergardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
133BOSCole ChandlerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
134SEAMaxim AgafonovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
135BUFNoah LabergeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
136ANAAlexis MathieuD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
137TORWilliam BelleF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
138NYISam LaurilaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
139NYRZeb LindgrenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
140DETNikita TyurinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
141MINJustin KipkieD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
142UTAIvan Tkach-TkachenkoG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
143VANWilson BjorckF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
144CGYEthan WyttenbachF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
145MTLAlexis CournoyerG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
146DALAtte JokiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
147STLMikhail FyodorovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
148PITQuinn BeauchesneD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
149OTTDmitri IsayevF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
150SJSMax HeiseF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
151TBLEverett BaldwinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
152LAKPetteri RimpinenG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
153TORHarry NansiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
154PITJordan CharronF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
155WSHJackson CrowderF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
156WPGViktor KlingsellF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
157PHILuke VlooswykD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
158DALMans GoosG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
159ANAEmile GuiteF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
160CBJOwen GriffinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
161NJDDavid RozsivalF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
162CHIAshton CumbyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
163NSHDaniel NieminenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
164PHINathan QuinnF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
165BOSKirill YemelyanovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
166NYRSamuel JungF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
167BUFAshton SchultzF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
168ANAAnthony Allain-SamakeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
169PITCarter SandersonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
170NYIBurke HoodG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
171NYREvan PassmoreD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
172DETWill MurphyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
173CBJVictor RaftheimD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
174UTALudvig JohnsonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
175VANGabriel ChiarotF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
176CGYAiden LaneF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
177MTLCarlos HandelD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
178NJDSigge HolmgrenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
179STLLove HarenstamG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
180WSHAron DahlqvistD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
181OTTBruno IdzanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
182UTAReko AlankoD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
183CARViggo NordlundF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
184LAKJan ChovanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
185TORRylan FellingerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
186VGKAlexander WeiermairF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
187VGKGustav SjoqvistD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
188WPGEdison EngleD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
189MTLAndrew MacNielD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
190DALDawson SharkeyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
191EDMDaniel SalonenG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
192FLAArvid DrottF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
193TBLCaleb HeilG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
194CHIIlya KanarskyG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
195BUFMelvin NovotnyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
196LAKBrendan McMorrowF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
197FLABrendan DunphyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
198CBJJeremy LorangerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
199BUFYevgeni ProkhorovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
200ANABrady TurkoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
201PITKale DachF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
202NYIJacob KvasnickaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
203NYRFelix FarhammarD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
204DETGrayden Robertson-PalmerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
205SEAKarl AnnbornD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
206TBLRoman LuttsevF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
207VANMatthew LansingF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
208CGYJakob LeanderD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
209MTLMaxon VigD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
210SJSRichard GallantF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
211CGYYan MatveikoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
212TBLGrant SpadaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
213OTTAndrei TrofimovG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
214COLNolan RoedF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
215TBLMarco MignosaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
216LAKWilliam SharpeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
217TORMatthew HlacarF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
218SEALoke KrantzF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
219BUFRyan RucinskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
220WPGJacob CloutierF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
221CARFilip EkbergF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
222DALCharlie PaquetteF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
223EDMAidan ParkF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
224FLAYegor MidlakG00.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77