IWTGAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.03.16.19.212123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

forwards · defensemen · goalieseach line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2026 draft class224 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1TORGavin McKennaF000.0
2SJSIvar StenbergF000.0
3VANCaleb MalhotraF000.0
4BUFDaxon RudolphD000.0
5NYRAlberts SmitsD000.0
6CGYCarson CarelsD000.0
7SEAChase ReidD000.0
8WPGViggo BjorckF000.0
9SJSKeaton VerhoeffD000.0
10NSHWyatt CullenF000.0
11STLTynan LawrenceF000.0
12NJDAlexander CommandF000.0
13NYIMalte GustafssonD000.0
14CBJOscar HemmingF000.0
15ANANikita KlepovF000.0
16STLMaddox DagenaisF000.0
17UTAEthan BelchetzF000.0
18WSHOliver SuvantoF000.0
19LAKElton HermanssonF000.0
20BUFIlia MorozovF000.0
21SJSRyan LinD000.0
22PITLiam RuckF000.0
23DETJeffrey (JP) HurlbertF000.0
24VANAdam NovotnyF000.0
25OTTJonas Lagerberg HoenF000.0
26MTLGleb PugachyovF000.0
27PHIMaksim SokolovskiiD000.0
28ANAMarcus NordmarkF000.0
29VGKJuho PiiparinenD000.0
30CGYJack HextallF000.0
31NSHThomas BleylD000.0
32OTTJaxon CoverF000.0
33VANBrooks RogowskiF000.0
34CHIXavier VilleneuveD000.0
35CHIRyan RoobroeckF000.0
36CGYChase HarringtonF000.0
37NJDMatias VanhanenF000.0
38SEACasey MutrynF000.0
39PITMarkus RuckF000.0
40FLASimas IgnataviciusF000.0
41VANNiklas Aaram-OlsenF000.0
42CGYTobias TrejbalG00.0
43COLEgor ShilovF000.0
44NJDNikita ShcherbakovD000.0
45ANAJayden KurtzD000.0
46LAKLiam LefebvreF000.0
47DETVictor PlanteF000.0
48FLARyder CaliF000.0
49LAKAdam GoljerD000.0
50ANAMathis PrestonF000.0
51CARWilliam HakanssonD000.0
52TBLOleg KulebiakinF000.0
53PHIBrek LiskeD000.0
54PITTomas GalvasD000.0
55CGYAlan ShaikhlislamovF000.0
56BOSYuri IvanovG00.0
57MTLTimofei RuntsoD000.0
58EDMRudolfs BerzkalnsF000.0
59DALJakub VanecekD000.0
60TORAlexander BileckiD000.0
61CARWiggo SorenssonF000.0
62PHIMartin PsohlavecG00.0
63VGKForfeitedF000.0
64NYRBenjamin MacBeathD000.0
65CGYJoe IginlaF000.0
66CHISamu AlalauriD000.0
67NYRDanai ShaiikovG00.0
68CARZachary LansardF000.0
69TOREthan MacKenzieD000.0
70NSHDmitri BorichevG00.0
71WPGSamuel HrenakG00.0
72OTTAdam NemecF000.0
73TORZach OlsenF000.0
74COLBeckett HamiltonF000.0
75STLLuke SchairerD000.0
76TORMans GudmundssonD000.0
77NYRCharlie MorrisonD000.0
78VANDmitri IvchenkoG00.0
79DETMichal OrsulakG00.0
80LAKBlake ZielinskiF000.0
81NYRTomas ChrenkoF000.0
82ANARian ChudzinskiF000.0
83MINAdam AnderssonF000.0
84EDMMalcom GastrinF000.0
85TORJuuso AinastoG00.0
86PITPierce MbuyiF000.0
87OTTOscar HolmertzF000.0
88BOSNils BartholdssonF000.0
89LAKYegor RybkinG00.0
90TBLTomas KralovicD000.0
91OTTLouis Felix BourqueF000.0
92VGKBenjamin WilmottF000.0
93MTLCooper CleavesD000.0
94CBJAlessandro Di IorioF000.0
95VGKSean BurickD000.0
96UTAAdam ValentiniF000.0
97VANYaroslav BryzgalovF000.0
98FLAJonas KempsD000.0
99SEAViktor FedorovF000.0
100CGYEgor BarabanovF000.0
101WSHTyus SparksF000.0
102NYRSpencer BowesF000.0
103LAKThomas VandenbergF000.0
104BOSMatvei KotkovF000.0
105CARMichael BerchildF000.0
106NSHJakub FlorisD000.0
107STLLandon NyczD000.0
108DETAdam LevacF000.0
109NYILincoln KuehneD000.0
110OTTElliot LennonG00.0
111PITParker Von RichterD000.0
112MINKayden LemireF000.0
113VGKJonah SivertsonF000.0
114TORPatriks PluminsG00.0
115UTACarl AxelssonG00.0
116WPGZach WootenF000.0
117MTLBrayden KlimpkeD000.0
118NSHJustin GrafF000.0
119NJDLavr GashilovF000.0
120PHIMarek SklenickaG00.0
121CBJEvan JardineF000.0
122BOSOscar OlssonF000.0
123STLVladimir ProskurinG00.0
124BUFOlivers MurnieksF000.0
125CARRyder FetterolfG00.0
126COLTobias TvrznikG00.0
127SJSBrady KnowlingG00.0
128COLAxel ElofssonD000.0
129VANConnor DavisF000.0
130UTATheodor KnightsD000.0
131SEAFinn KearnsD000.0
132CGYSimon KatolickyF000.0
133EDMAndrew RobinsonD000.0
134TBLMorgan AnderbergF000.0
135WPGAlexandre TailleferD000.0
136PHIKent SauerF000.0
137MINFilip RuzickaG00.0
138NSHPhilip HemmyrF000.0
139STLNicholas BogasD000.0
140COLCole TuminaroD000.0
141NYIVladimir DraveckyD000.0
142CBJParker SnellG00.0
143DETBeckham EdwardsF000.0
144WSHBrian McFaddenD000.0
145LAKVertti SvenskD000.0
146ANAEric FrossardD000.0
147UTAFlorent HouleF000.0
148SEALuken HuffD000.0
149NJDDaniil RusakovichG00.0
150STLCarter StevensF000.0
151OTTHarris PangretitschD000.0
152COLTheodore LechnerD000.0
153LAKGiorgos PantelasD000.0
154TBLCooper SollerF000.0
155DALRyan BrownF000.0
156BUFDoman SzongothF000.0
157BOSJacob VandevenD000.0
158TORCooper WilliamsF000.0
159VGKWill McLaughlinD000.0
160PITMatvei NikonovichG00.0
161TORYaroslav FedoseyevD000.0
162NYRAndre MondouxD000.0
163NYRDarian AndersonF000.0
164CGYBode LaylinD000.0
165CARZachary JovanovskiG00.0
166SEAOla PalmeD000.0
167WPGLandon HafeleF000.0
168FLAVilho VanhataloF000.0
169TORBrody PepoyF000.0
170BOSRoberto HenriquezG00.0
171STLLars SteinerF000.0
172NJDLuke WilfleyF000.0
173NYIArtyom MatyukF000.0
174SJSJake GustafsonF000.0
175DETLuka ArkkoF000.0
176VANLucian BernatF000.0
177LAKAlex KostovF000.0
178ANAGleb PeshkovG00.0
179NSHBenjamin Cossette AyotteD000.0
180EDMCaden HarveyF000.0
181FLACole ZurawskiF000.0
182CBJAnttoni UronenF000.0
183OTTAlexander GruninD000.0
184VANSamuel ErikssonD000.0
185CBJJonas WooD000.0
186TBLStepan ShuryginG00.0
187DALAnton Emil Wilde LarsenG00.0
188BUFDylan DumontF000.0
189MTLParker TrottierF000.0
190MTLWesley RoystonF000.0
191VGKMatthew MinchakG00.0
192ANANoah KosickF000.0
193NYRIvan PatrikhayevD000.0
194CHIAlexander IvanovD000.0
195COLShawn CarrierF000.0
196DETMyles BrosnanD000.0
197DALJasper KuhtaF000.0
198SEARylan SinghD000.0
199WPGAlofa Tunoa Ta'amuD000.0
200CHIWilliam SorbrandF000.0
201SJSAlexander KarmanovD000.0
202NSHCharlie PuglisiF000.0
203STLColin FitzgeraldF000.0
204SEAWilliam TomkoF000.0
205NYIRobert CowanF000.0
206CBJFilip NovakF000.0
207VGKNoel PakarinenF000.0
208WSHLogan StuartF000.0
209LAKTobias KrestanF000.0
210ANAJames RieberD000.0
211UTAArtem PrimaF000.0
212EDMRyan CameronG00.0
213PHIMax LaatikainenD000.0
214COLOndrej RumlD000.0
215COLAlexandre RaymondG00.0
216BOSCullen McCrateD000.0
217FLALouis-Antoine DenaultG00.0
218TBLMax VilenD000.0
219DALMikhail CherepanovD000.0
220WPGJohn ParsonsG00.0
221MTLJean-Samuel DaigneaultD000.0
222NJDQuinn McKenzieF000.0
223LAKLucas AmbrosioD000.0
224MTLTyler DeakosF000.0

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.81
42012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.81
52002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
82003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.79
92011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
102011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.78
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.78
122005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
132010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.77
162003 · #148Lee StempniakF · STL+0.77
172005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.77
182008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
192004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.77
202013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
212005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
222000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
232010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.76
242003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
252008 · #186Jason DemersD · SJS+0.76

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.80
42008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.80
52002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.80
62000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.80
72005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.80
82005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.80
92002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.80
102007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.80
112003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.80
122000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.79
132001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.79
142002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.79
152007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.79
162007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.79
172008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.79
182011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.79
192004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.79
202011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.79
212004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.78
222007 · #25Patrick WhiteF · VAN-0.78
232013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.77
242002 · #27Mike MorrisF · SJS-0.77
252009 · #27Philippe ParadisF · CAR-0.77